Wed, Jan 10 2024, 3:41 PM
At Least We Won't Be Waiting For CPI Anymore
The present week has been a bit boring, for lack of a gentler t...
Wed, Jan 10 2024, 12:34 PM
Last Friday's data (jobs report and ISM) marked the last significant calendar event until this week's CPI, due out tomorrow at 8:30am ET. The interve...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:36 PM
While the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate is still more than 1% below the long-term highs seen in October, it has been rising slowly and steadily in ...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 4:28 PM
Even Narrower Sideways Grind; No Reaction to Auction
Friday's trading session set a reasonably wide range re...
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 11:12 AM
An uneventful overnight session has given way to roughly unchanged levels at the start of another day without CPI. The first 3 days of this week are ...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:16 PM
Range Finding Ahead of Auctions and CPI
The start of the new week saw bonds start at unchanged levels, rally...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 5:04 PM
Last week saw several key economic events attempt to exert some influence on interest rate momentum without any obvious winner. Rates ended the week ...
Mon, Jan 8 2024, 12:19 PM
Bonds ended the previous week at the highest yields since before the December Fed announcement. The story behind the that story is that yields were r...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 5:19 PM
The big jobs report on the first Friday of any given month can be big business for interest rate volatility. Today's example was no exception, but le...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 5:17 PM
ISM Outshines NFP, But Neither Ended Up Leaving a Mark
It has happened before, but it's not common: those Fr...
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 12:35 PM
Friday is off to a mixed start with the jobs report doing some damage and the ISM Services data undoing that damage. Things are pretty much that simp...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:30 PM
Lots at Stake With Friday's Jobs Report
Thursday's trading session provided an unpleasant but worthwhile rem...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 3:25 PM
Wednesday saw mortgage rates recover toward the lower recent levels in response to economic data that wasn't as upbeat as recent examples. That's imp...
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 12:14 PM
Wednesday's data was helpful for the bond market--even if only modestly. Today's is the opposite. The weakness began in Europe with a swath of PMI r...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 5:21 PM
Proof of Data Dependent Concept
The first two days of the new year were shaping up to paint an unpleasant pi...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 4:08 PM
As of this morning, it looked like the theme for mortgage rates in 2024 would be up, up, and away--at least as far as the first two business days were...
Wed, Jan 3 2024, 11:47 AM
As long ago as December 14th, we've had our eye on today's 10am economic data as the next reasonably important moment for the bond market. There simp...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:07 PM
Mortgage rates kicked off the new year by jumping to the highest levels since December 13th. That's not too remarkable considering rates were also at...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 5:05 PM
Bond Selling Suggests Caution, But We're Still Data Dependent
The bond market started off the new year with ...
Tue, Jan 2 2024, 12:18 PM
Hindsight is frequently 20/20 when discussing recent market movement and this morning's weakness is an example that's worth considering. Heading into...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:32 PM
Uneventful End to an Eventful Year
2023 may be a year that we won't soon forget, but the past two weeks have...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 3:10 PM
Looking back at October when 30yr fixed mortgage rates were over 8%, a return to the roughly unchanged levels by the end of the year may have seemed l...
Fri, Dec 29 2023, 9:59 AM
Today's abbreviated session (early close at 2pm ET) is already being dominated by year-end trading. With December marking the best month in 15 years ...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 5:18 PM
Random Bounce Back After Random Rally
Bonds failed to do anything remarkable on Thursday as the random stren...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 4:17 PM
Yesterday was the most interesting day of the past 2 weeks, but that's not saying much. The past 2 weeks have been the calmest for mortgage rates in ...
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 12:34 PM
Wednesday's session saw the only meaningful movement of the past two weeks. Now Thursday is pushing back modestly, thus keeping the sleepy, year-end ...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 4:10 PM
The most notable accomplishment for mortgage rates today was the fact that they moved by a normal amount compared to the previous day. That's the fir...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 4:08 PM
Much Stronger Than Justified, But That Can Happen This Time of Year
On many of the recent days with a simila...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 12:36 PM
If an average trading day is a 5 on a 1-10 scale, yesterday (Tuesday) would have been a 1 in terms of volume and liquidity. Today's number would only...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 3:38 PM
After dropping precipitously from over 8% in late October to well under 7% by December 14th, mortgage rates have been stone silent. In the 7 business...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 3:38 PM
Quietest Trading Day of The Year
We've seen other days this year where bonds have traded in a similarly narr...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 10:55 AM
The bond market is technically fully open today, but only due to the unspoken convention regarding 4 day weekends. Specifically, bonds are never clos...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 3:26 PM
Early Close and a 3-Day Weekend
Cash bond trading closes at 2pm ET today. Data coincided with brief, modest...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 3:22 PM
The astonishing pace of the recent drop in interest rates has raised some questions regarding sustainability and justification, but we can clear them ...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 12:11 PM
Cash bond trading closes at 2pm ET today. Data coincided with brief, modest volatility this morning, but it only lasted for 30 minutes. After that, ...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 3:52 PM
I like to write at least a small amount every day to recap mortgage rate movement. After all, they change every day by at least some small amount and...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 3:50 PM
Was The Fed Pivot a Surprise?
There's been quite a bit of discussion in the news and on MBS Live surrounding...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 12:53 PM
Yesterday's trading session saw bonds improve in the afternoon despite a complete absence of overt justifications. That's not to say they don't exist...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 4:24 PM
We made the mistake of referring to mortgage rates as being "sharply sideways" yesterday--a description that's only dusted off for the most uneventful...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 4:23 PM
Surprisingly Strong Day Leaves Yields at Fresh Lows
Nothing good happened for the bond market today--at leas...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 12:34 PM
Bonds were stronger in the overnight session with an infusion of buying demand following weaker UK inflation data. This brought 10yr yields into U.S....
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 3:56 PM
When is interest rate momentum flatter than you can possibly imagine? Today. We only break out the sarcastic and paradoxical juxtaposition of "sharp...
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 3:19 PM
Late December Sticking to The Script
The baseline is "boring" when it comes to Thanksgiving week and the ...
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 11:28 AM
Can you sense the analytical excitement that pervades MBS commentary posts in the 2nd half of December?
It's not that we don't see flat trading at o...
Mon, Dec 18 2023, 4:08 PM
As of last Thursday, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was a few days away from being able to claim an official "7 month low," and that's ...
Mon, Dec 18 2023, 4:06 PM
Uneventful!
Through the 3pm CME close, today's trading volume in longer term Treasuries was the lowest in mo...
Mon, Dec 18 2023, 11:26 AM
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the holiday-shortened week (early close on Friday) and the losses happened to coincide with comments from Fed's Goo...
Fri, Dec 15 2023, 3:38 PM
Survey-based rate indices haven't yet had time to account for the massive drop in mortgage rates this week, but rest assured, it was special. That's ...
Fri, Dec 15 2023, 3:37 PM
Solid Conclusion to Superlative Week
Friday ended up being rather uneventful for the bond market, as long as...
Fri, Dec 15 2023, 11:50 AM
Any time bonds improve as much as they have over the past 2 days (and indeed over the past 2 months), there's a risk of a corrective bounce. In fact,...
