Tue, Apr 16 2024, 4:54 PM
Powell Confirms What The Bond Market Already Knew
Morning hours were frustrating for the bond market as we w...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 11:25 AM
Yesterday's commentary pulled an occasionally used phrase off the shelf by referring to recent weakness as a "repricing" in the broader bond market. ...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 3:55 PM
In 2023, there were multiple examples of mortgage rates moving up by roughly half a percent in a relatively short amount of time (1-3 weeks). Since t...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 3:52 PM
Data-Driven Repricing Continues
There are two kinds of "repricing" to consider when you're a mortgage market...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 11:28 AM
The bond market sold off steadily and gradually overnight session despite news of escalation between Iran and Israel. Ever since the start of the war...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 5:04 PM
Time to Hurry Up and Wait Again
Friday ended up being reasonably pleasant, but mostly uneventful. Gains wer...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 4:54 PM
Wednesday was one of the worst days in decades in terms of single-day upward movement in mortgage rates. Thursday added a bit more insult to the inju...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 10:22 AM
Bonds began the overnight session in modestly stronger territory but the gains started adding up in earnest after European markets opened for the day....
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 4:39 PM
About as Uneventful as it Could Have Been
Any time we have a huge day of movement, regardless of the reason,...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 4:14 PM
Wednesday's Consumer Price Index caused a brutally fast spike in mortgage rates. It wasn't notable for taking us to exceptionally high levels (Octobe...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 12:10 PM
After a day like Wednesday (one of the top 20 weakest bond market days of the past few decades), one of the top concerns is that the following day wil...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates surged at a pace seen only one other time since October 2022. The average lender moved up by 0.28%, which is functionally equivalent t...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 4:16 PM
A Really Bad Day For The Bond Market
To reiterate the point made in today's morning commentary, there was a ...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 11:38 AM
When it comes to big ticket economic events, the average anticipatory headline tends to be a bit more dramatic than the actual outcome. It's our way ...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates roughly matched their highest levels in months yesterday, but managed to turn things around today. One could argue that the broader bo...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 4:27 PM
Nice Tuesday For Bonds, But It's All About Wednesday
Tuesday turned out to be great for bonds with MBS up ne...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 9:36 AM
The overnight session was generally a mirror image of yesterday's with 10yr yields moving several bps lower in a linear, steady trend. Unlike yesterd...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 4:42 PM
Uneventful, Sideways Day After Initial Losses
Today had the dubious distinction of seeing the highest yields...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved up somewhat abruptly today as the bond market lost more ground over the weekend. Rates are driven primarily by bonds, but mortga...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 11:49 AM
Bonds began the new week with follow-through selling overseas. Losses were steady and linear in both Asia and Europe. It's tempting to chalk up some...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 3:37 PM
Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI
Up until the 3pm CME close, the bond market was having a s...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 2:56 PM
Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 11:23 AM
The jobs number came in at 303k this morning versus a median forecast of 200k. Previous month revisions added a minimal 22k to the 3 month total and ...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 4:33 PM
Mysterious Afternoon Gains Bring Yields Back Into The Range Just Before Jobs Report
It was a surprisingly an...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates may have been able to claim some resilience over the past few days, but it hasn't been a great week in general. The average lender jum...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 12:02 PM
Thursday is shaping up to be a calmer and less eventful trading day than the two most recent examples. It's similar in the sense that there was some ...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 4:06 PM
Carbon Copy Day For MBS
The date and underlying events may have changed, but the price action in MBS was str...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 3:34 PM
After starting the week with a sharp move higher, mortgage rates managed to avoid losing much ground yesterday. This was only achieved with a recover...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 11:38 AM
Bonds remain under pressure this week, but the pressure is turning out to be slightly lower than it was earlier this morning. Overnight weakness was ...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 4:00 PM
Technical Breakout in Treasuries. Does it Matter?
Bonds began the day in much weaker territory as Treasuries...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 3:25 PM
After starting the week with a fairly large jump, mortgage rates had a much calmer day on Tuesday. This was made all the more impressive by the fact ...
Tue, Apr 2 2024, 11:12 AM
Bonds came into the domestic trading day with additional losses. This wasn't a foregone conclusion, but it was a distinct possibility based on past e...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:54 PM
Positioning and Data Deliver Double Whammy For Bonds
There were no whammies last week as bonds drifted sidew...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:27 PM
March ended with a streak of some of the flattest day-over-day changes in mortgage rates on record. It was all but certain that the new week/month wo...
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 9:00 AM
There are two times of morning that could be considered "the open" for the bond market. As far as the futures market is concerned, it's 8:20am as tha...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 3:22 PM
Some Month-End Volatility Late in The Day
Yields were near 2 week lows 2 hours before the final trades of th...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 3:01 PM
Unfortunately, we don't have a great way to measure all of the past precedents, but it's safe to say that the this was one of the least volatile weeks...
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 12:24 PM
While the future can't ever be known, this week's base case was for lower volatility, and a general sideways drift heading into the long weekend and b...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:55 PM
Treasury Auction Relief Rally and Month-End Support
With Thursday being a half day before a 3.5 day weekend,...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 3:44 PM
There are probably only a few 4-day streaks with effectively no movement in mortgage rates, and this is one of them. After falling to 6.91% last Frid...
Wed, Mar 27 2024, 11:35 AM
There are no significant economic data on tap today. The only notable event is the 7yr Treasury auction (the last of the week) and it's a bit of a st...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 4:14 PM
Mixed Performance. Data Hurt. Auction Helped. Little Changed
In the bigger picture, bonds found resistance b...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 3:44 PM
After moving back under 7% last week (conventional, 30yr fixed, top tier scenario), mortgage rates have been increasingly unlikely to move. Today was...
Tue, Mar 26 2024, 12:16 PM
Welcome to day 4 of our unofficial 9 day weekend with limited data and volatility ahead of an actual 3.5 day weekend. Is data truly limited if we hav...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:18 PM
Weaker Start, But MBS Outperform
The week got off to a weaker start with most of the losses seen during the ...
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 4:07 PM
Mortgage rates enjoyed a decently strong week last week, with the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate moving down to 6.91% by Friday from 7....
Mon, Mar 25 2024, 11:01 AM
Monday marks the start of a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday) and the beginning of a week that will conclude...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 5:19 PM
9 Day Weekend For The Bond Market
While it's not technically a 9 day weekend for the bond market, it might a...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 5:15 PM
As the broader market continued rubbing its eyes in disbelief over the Fed's exceptionally calm attitude on inflation, bonds continued to improve toda...
Fri, Mar 22 2024, 12:11 PM
In the current regime of bond market movement, traders have been running from one side of the field to the other in an attempt to get in on the action...
