Thu, Mar 21 2024, 4:50 PM
Econ Data Keeps Bonds in Check
Looking solely at the end of day trading levels in the bond market, we could ...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 4:33 PM
It's Thursday and thus time once again to check in with Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey versus reality. To be fair, it's not that Freddie i...
Thu, Mar 21 2024, 12:40 PM
The global trading community digested yesterday's Fed events in a relatively constructive way overnight. Combined with lackluster manufacturing PMIs ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:32 PM
Surprisingly Calm Reaction to Surprisingly Dovish Fed
With so much apparently at stake heading into today's ...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 4:25 PM
The rate market was intently focused on today's announcement from the Federal Reserve. While many news headlines emphasize the Fed "holding rates ste...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain remai...
Wed, Mar 20 2024, 10:49 AM
The Fed finds itself in an increasingly uncomfortable situation where the market has witnessed several successive months of inflation data that refuse...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:26 PM
Ceiling Survives But Wednesday is The Test
Any trading day without a big ticket economic report or Fed annou...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged on Tuesday, capping a short but meaningful losing streak over the past 6 business days. During that time, the av...
Tue, Mar 19 2024, 12:15 PM
While there are several ways in which the trading environment of the past few years is more exciting than normal, it comes with one notable caveat: on...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 4:03 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Technical Test
For all that we've talked about the 4.32% technical level and ...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 3:50 PM
Rates marched higher to the highest levels in March today, but most lenders are only microscopically worse off than Friday afternoon. In the slightly...
Mon, Mar 18 2024, 9:43 AM
Ceilings, floors, pivot points, etc. Technical levels don't predict the future, but they can provide context for trends. In some cases, they can ser...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:49 PM
Back in late 2023, we got in the car with the Federal Reserve with the promise of a trip to our favorite place: the land of lower interest rates. In 2...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 4:42 PM
Quiet Conclusion to a Raucous Week
For a short while this morning, it looked as if bonds would break up and ...
Fri, Mar 15 2024, 9:47 AM
This morning's line-up of econ data is certainly not the most relevant to the bond market, but the NY Fed Manufacturing index has registered an impact...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:40 PM
Data Calling Fed's Confidence Into Question
As the new year began, the late 2023 assumption of multiple rate...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 4:18 PM
Even though Tuesday's consumer-oriented inflation report (CPI) had the biggest potential to cause drama for rates, it was today's wholesale inflation ...
Thu, Mar 14 2024, 11:46 AM
Apart from Tuesday (CPI day), today is this week's next biggest deal in terms of scheduled economic data. The trifecta included Jobless Claims, PPI, ...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 4:23 PM
Calmer Day of Losses. Data Resumes on Thursday
Without any notable econ data on tap, bonds were left to thei...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates are nowhere near their highs from a few short weeks ago, let alone the much higher highs from late 2023, but they are at the highest le...
Wed, Mar 13 2024, 11:27 AM
Bonds are off to a weaker start today, but not in a major way and not due to any interesting developments. In general, there was some optimism headin...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 4:03 PM
Volatility After CPI, But Only Moderate Weakness
Heading into the 4pm hour, MBS are only down 6 ticks (.19) ...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 3:50 PM
Today brought the release of one of the most consequential economic reports that comes out on any given month: the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI me...
Tue, Mar 12 2024, 9:51 AM
It's been a weird morning so far with core CPI coming in at 0.4 vs 0.3 forecast--something that should have certainly sent bonds scrambling into weake...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:18 PM
Super High Potential Energy Surrounding Tuesday's Data
Monday proved to be the quintessential placeholder tr...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 4:03 PM
Mortgage rates hit their best levels in more than a month by the end of last week after moving lower for 4 straight days. If you could only know one ...
Mon, Mar 11 2024, 10:06 AM
February wasn't a fun month for rates, largely thanks to a surprise uptick in core inflation. On that point, both CPI and PCE agreed, but many analys...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:26 PM
All in All a Pretty Logical Week
It seems weird to consider, but Friday's trading--and indeed, the week's tr...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 4:08 PM
It was a hotly anticipated week for interest rates due to the arrival of the first batch of big ticket economic data since the Inflation report that c...
Fri, Mar 8 2024, 1:34 PM
Today's jobs report has proven to be one of the most extreme examples of competing narratives in the past year or so. The headline number wasn't too ...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 3:53 PM
Bonds Definitely Daring Jobs Report to Surge
10yr yields are now decisively below the levels seen BEFORE the...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 3:21 PM
Since hitting 2 month highs last Tuesday, mortgage rates have mostly moved lower. The past 3 days have all seen solid improvements in response to eco...
Thu, Mar 7 2024, 12:29 PM
Apart from Monday, which had no meaningful econ data, today was the best candidate for an uneventful day on what is otherwise an important data week. ...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 3:51 PM
Uneventful Gains Despite Apparent Market Movers
It was an interesting day for the bond market. Yields drop...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 3:37 PM
Conventional 30yr fixed mortgage rates in the high 6 percent range have been available months now, and that didn't change in the past few weeks when r...
Wed, Mar 6 2024, 9:18 AM
It's understandably nerve-wracking for fans of low rates to see a congressional testimony from Fed Chair Powell on the calendar. Granted, some of tho...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 4:32 PM
Gains Before and After Data
Today's big to-do was the ISM Non-Manufacturing data at 10am ET. Of the two ISM...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by movement in the bond market. Bonds can move for several reasons at any given moment, but a key consideration these days ...
Tue, Mar 5 2024, 10:39 AM
Yields spiked in the first half of February as the jobs report and CPI both suggested a stubbornly resilient economy and inflation outlook. That was ...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 4:33 PM
Mortgage rates were at the best levels in 2 weeks as of last Friday and today's offerings are only modestly higher. One counterpoint is that it didn'...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 4:27 PM
Sleepy Start to What May Be an Exciting Week
Every now and then the bond market makes a case for a 4 day wor...
Mon, Mar 4 2024, 11:09 AM
We've been looking forward to the first week of March since the Feb 13th CPI report because this is the first time since then that we'll see a top tie...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 4:56 PM
Bonds Leading Off in a Friendly Direction
With ISM Manufacturing, Friday brought the only other reasonably i...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 3:24 PM
The average lender was offering slightly higher rates this morning when compared to yesterdays latest levels, but things began to change after 10am ET...
Fri, Mar 1 2024, 12:46 PM
We haven't talked enough about ISM Manufacturing this week because Thursday's PCE data was the first report in more than 2 weeks that mattered. Thus,...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 4:50 PM
It Took a Village (Of Econ Data)
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied after the 8:30am econ d...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 4:05 PM
In the bigger picture, mortgage rates would still be best described as "trending gently higher," but in the shorter term, today was a victory. The av...
Thu, Feb 29 2024, 10:44 AM
Today's most hotly anticipated data was undoubtedly PCE inflation for January. In fact, this is the report that became the subject of our focus and a...
Wed, Feb 28 2024, 4:05 PM
Small Scale Volatility But Very Sideways Overall
There were a few instances of volatility in the bond market...
