Wed, Dec 27 2023, 4:10 PM
The most notable accomplishment for mortgage rates today was the fact that they moved by a normal amount compared to the previous day. That's the fir...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 4:08 PM
Much Stronger Than Justified, But That Can Happen This Time of Year
On many of the recent days with a simila...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 12:36 PM
If an average trading day is a 5 on a 1-10 scale, yesterday (Tuesday) would have been a 1 in terms of volume and liquidity. Today's number would only...
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 10:54 AM
Susan Toste writes to Ira Selwin who sends me (see how these things work?), “Can you believe it is 364 days until Christmas and people already have th...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 3:38 PM
After dropping precipitously from over 8% in late October to well under 7% by December 14th, mortgage rates have been stone silent. In the 7 business...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 3:38 PM
Quietest Trading Day of The Year
We've seen other days this year where bonds have traded in a similarly narr...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 10:55 AM
The bond market is technically fully open today, but only due to the unspoken convention regarding 4 day weekends. Specifically, bonds are never clos...
Tue, Dec 26 2023, 10:43 AM
Did you receive any SM under the tree this weekend? Call it snail mucus, or snail mucin, it’s all the same to me, which, as a kid, represented a trail...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 3:26 PM
Early Close and a 3-Day Weekend
Cash bond trading closes at 2pm ET today. Data coincided with brief, modest...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 3:22 PM
The astonishing pace of the recent drop in interest rates has raised some questions regarding sustainability and justification, but we can clear them ...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 12:11 PM
Cash bond trading closes at 2pm ET today. Data coincided with brief, modest volatility this morning, but it only lasted for 30 minutes. After that, ...
Fri, Dec 22 2023, 11:38 AM
“If you know someone who has an intense fear of store Santas, would you say they were suffering from Claus-trophobia?” For individuals or companies, d...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 3:52 PM
I like to write at least a small amount every day to recap mortgage rate movement. After all, they change every day by at least some small amount and...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 3:50 PM
Was The Fed Pivot a Surprise?
There's been quite a bit of discussion in the news and on MBS Live surrounding...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 12:53 PM
Yesterday's trading session saw bonds improve in the afternoon despite a complete absence of overt justifications. That's not to say they don't exist...
Thu, Dec 21 2023, 10:43 AM
“What do you call a Christmas wreath made out of $100 bills? Aretha Franklins.” It’s cutting-edge humor like this that keeps readers coming back for m...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 4:24 PM
We made the mistake of referring to mortgage rates as being "sharply sideways" yesterday--a description that's only dusted off for the most uneventful...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 4:23 PM
Surprisingly Strong Day Leaves Yields at Fresh Lows
Nothing good happened for the bond market today--at leas...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 12:34 PM
Bonds were stronger in the overnight session with an infusion of buying demand following weaker UK inflation data. This brought 10yr yields into U.S....
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 10:39 AM
Here’s what happened when a company relied on forecasts and rate predictions during late 2022 for its business in 2023. You’d have a come-apart! Speak...
Wed, Dec 20 2023, 7:00 AM
The Thanksgiving holiday was followed by two strong weeks for mortgage applications, especially for refinancing, as mortgage rates fell. This past wee...
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 3:56 PM
When is interest rate momentum flatter than you can possibly imagine? Today. We only break out the sarcastic and paradoxical juxtaposition of "sharp...
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 3:19 PM
Late December Sticking to The Script
The baseline is "boring" when it comes to Thanksgiving week and the ...
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 12:46 PM
Housing starts, which had risen modestly in September and October, soared last month, topping 1.5 million units for the first time in 2023 . The U.S....
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 11:28 AM
Can you sense the analytical excitement that pervades MBS commentary posts in the 2nd half of December?
It's not that we don't see flat trading at o...
Tue, Dec 19 2023, 10:56 AM
Change is constant: How ‘bout U.S. Steel, the Pittsburgh steel producer that played a key role in the nation’s industrialization, being acquired by Ni...
Mon, Dec 18 2023, 4:08 PM
As of last Thursday, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate was a few days away from being able to claim an official "7 month low," and that's ...
Mon, Dec 18 2023, 4:06 PM
Uneventful!
Through the 3pm CME close, today's trading volume in longer term Treasuries was the lowest in mo...
Mon, Dec 18 2023, 11:35 AM
Yesterday the U.S. Government took a step addressing robocalls! But in that vein, sorry for the delay in sending out today’s Commentary. I received an...
Mon, Dec 18 2023, 11:26 AM
Bonds are slightly weaker to start the holiday-shortened week (early close on Friday) and the losses happened to coincide with comments from Fed's Goo...
Fri, Dec 15 2023, 3:38 PM
Survey-based rate indices haven't yet had time to account for the massive drop in mortgage rates this week, but rest assured, it was special. That's ...
Fri, Dec 15 2023, 3:37 PM
Solid Conclusion to Superlative Week
Friday ended up being rather uneventful for the bond market, as long as...
Fri, Dec 15 2023, 11:50 AM
Any time bonds improve as much as they have over the past 2 days (and indeed over the past 2 months), there's a risk of a corrective bounce. In fact,...
Fri, Dec 15 2023, 11:30 AM
Here in Chicago, there are several restaurants that are “the place” to have afternoon tea. Tomorrow is the 250th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party. ...
Thu, Dec 14 2023, 3:57 PM
Today's headline speaks for itself: one of the biggest 2-day drops in rates in decades. Simply put, over the past 48 hours, mortgage rates have moved...
Thu, Dec 14 2023, 3:55 PM
Big Rally Just Getting Started or at Risk of a Correction?
Overseas markets added on to the rate rally inspi...
Thu, Dec 14 2023, 11:47 AM
"Pivot" is the word of the day as the Fed's dot plot and Powell's press conference are being viewed as confirmation that the Fed has pivoted away from...
Thu, Dec 14 2023, 11:21 AM
Everyone’s above average, right? This morning I head to Chicago where residents have the dubious honor of being the worst when it comes to estimating ...
Wed, Dec 13 2023, 5:03 PM
Today brought the scheduled Fed policy announcement that we've been waiting for and mortgage rates plummeted as a result. So does that mean the Fed c...
Wed, Dec 13 2023, 5:02 PM
Huge Rally as Dots Deliver and Powell Stays Out of The Way
It may have seemed that we were paying too much a...
Wed, Dec 13 2023, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity expanded at a has slowed from its strong pace in the in the third quarter. Job gain...
Wed, Dec 13 2023, 10:55 AM
The Fed has a way to convey where it sees the Fed Funds Rate in the coming years via the dot plot. The bond market has a way to make its own bets via...
Wed, Dec 13 2023, 10:07 AM
“I'm at a place in my life where errands are starting to count as going out.” No one’s getting any younger, and like time marching on, technology does...
Wed, Dec 13 2023, 9:18 AM
Borrowers took advantage of lower mortgage rates again last week, seizing the opportunity, especially for refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Associatio...
Tue, Dec 12 2023, 4:27 PM
When it comes to interest rates reacting to scheduled economic reports, the magnitude of the reaction is generally correlated with the extent to which...
Tue, Dec 12 2023, 4:26 PM
Dots, Dots, Dots, Dots
What's the most important ingredient in tomorrow's Fed announcement and related event...
Tue, Dec 12 2023, 10:14 AM
Today I head to Northern California, home of plenty of technology. The other day I went to the doctor and the receptionist handed me a tablet and said...
Tue, Dec 12 2023, 9:45 AM
The relationship between data and market movement is both brutally simple and frustratingly nuanced depending on the circumstances. More often than n...
Mon, Dec 11 2023, 3:45 PM
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and the bond market is coming off an important and largely successful week. It was important because it was the fir...
Mon, Dec 11 2023, 3:40 PM
Bonds Breathe Sigh of Relief After Auctions. CPI Up Next
It's been quite a while since we've dusted off the ...
