Fri, May 17 2024, 3:31 PM
Moderate, Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost ground at a modest to moderate clip on Friday, but not for any...
Fri, May 17 2024, 3:11 PM
Mortgage rates have had a great month of May so far with almost every day being a winner up until yesterday and today. Even then, the 2 day losing st...
Fri, May 17 2024, 12:02 PM
We’re only a few days away from the MBA’s Capital Markets Conference. Attendees, don’t forget to pick up your badges, or else! (Speaking of interestin...
Fri, May 17 2024, 11:12 AM
Friday's only scheduled economic report is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) index. It is not considered a timely market mover...
Thu, May 16 2024, 5:00 PM
Gradual Weakness All Day And a Quieter Calendar Ahead
Today brought the last of the scheduled economic data ...
Thu, May 16 2024, 4:18 PM
On the average day in the mortgage market, the average lender will offer the same mortgage rate terms for the entire day. It's only when the underlyi...
Thu, May 16 2024, 2:55 PM
The latest data on new residential construction from the U.S. Census Bureau paints a somewhat mixed picture of the housing market. While housing compl...
Thu, May 16 2024, 12:02 PM
It's the day after the CPI data and thus begins a concerted effort over the next few weeks to avoid compiling every piece of commentary as a simple co...
Thu, May 16 2024, 11:47 AM
Attendees of next week’s MBA Secondary conference can look forward to… A giant hot dog in Times Square that spits out confetti at high noon. (Keep you...
Wed, May 15 2024, 3:04 PM
Like The Last CPI Never Even Happened
The much anticipated CPI data was perfectly in line with expectations ...
Wed, May 15 2024, 2:28 PM
If it feels like we've been harping on the prospects for rate volatility in response to today's inflation data for several weeks (and we have), today ...
Wed, May 15 2024, 1:54 PM
Builders’ confidence in the new home market retreated this month , the first decline since last November. The National Association of Home Builders (N...
Wed, May 15 2024, 11:37 AM
Misconceptions and misunderstandings… Capital markets folks at the MBA conference next week should know that The Naked Cowboy in Times Square is not r...
Wed, May 15 2024, 10:29 AM
First off: the bond market rallied after the CPI data came out and remains in much stronger territory vs yesterday. That said, the more context we ad...
Wed, May 15 2024, 8:21 AM
Lower interest rates gave a lift to refinancing activity for the second week but failed to do the same for those financing home purchases. The Mortgag...
Tue, May 14 2024, 4:45 PM
Bonds Ready to go Big in Either Direction
If you only had 1 day per month to allocate to watching the bond m...
Tue, May 14 2024, 4:31 PM
We've been waiting for tomorrow since April 10th. That's the last time the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released. This is one of the two official ...
Tue, May 14 2024, 11:50 AM
Attendees are gearing up for the upcoming MBA Secondary Conference in Manhattan. Basketball fans know it as the home of Madison Square Garden and are ...
Tue, May 14 2024, 9:04 AM
The Producer Price Index (PPI) isn't in the same league as CPI when it comes to market movement potential, but as seen again this morning, it's no slo...
Mon, May 13 2024, 4:41 PM
What You See Today Won't Necessarily Be What You See Tomorrow
With essentially nothing on the event calendar...
Mon, May 13 2024, 4:24 PM
Last Thursday, mortgage rates merely had to hold steady in order to hit 1-month lows. In other words, Wednesday's rates were low enough to earn that ...
Mon, May 13 2024, 11:41 AM
Ahead of the upcoming MBA conference in Manhattan, as a reminder, we have five senses. All of them are important, with perhaps smell being the most un...
Mon, May 13 2024, 11:17 AM
In 2023 and especially 2024, the first bullet point in the bond market's job description is to focus on Core CPI above all other economic reports. In...
Fri, May 10 2024, 4:24 PM
In general, you should be skeptical any time someone says a future week will be more volatile. There's really no way to know such things in advance, b...
Fri, May 10 2024, 4:24 PM
Higher Inflation Expectations Keep Yields Range-Bound
It's not as if bond yields stood any real chance of br...
Fri, May 10 2024, 12:36 PM
The following should be prefaced with the reminder that it is impossible to predict the future with much precision when it comes to bond market moveme...
Fri, May 10 2024, 11:52 AM
On a flight yesterday I had a choice of movies and, knowing nothing about it, chose “The Beekeeper,” filled with severed fingers and broken glass bein...
Thu, May 9 2024, 4:45 PM
The most prevalently quoted conventional 30yr fixed rates are at the lowest levels in a month as of today, but there are a few "yeah buts" that make t...
Thu, May 9 2024, 4:43 PM
Bonds Boosted by Data and Well-Received Auction
Jobless Claims data doesn't normally move the market, but it...
Thu, May 9 2024, 11:09 AM
It is a starkly data-free week for all intents and purposes, but some economic reports are with us as always on a weekly basis. Thursday's initial jo...
Wed, May 8 2024, 4:47 PM
Yesterday, we took a look at the recent winning streak for mortgage rates. Specifically, they had moved lower for 5 straight days--a feat only achiev...
Wed, May 8 2024, 4:44 PM
Token Pull Back Keeps Things Boring
Coming into this week, we expected things to be boring and sideways afte...
Wed, May 8 2024, 11:41 AM
One of the notions surrounding the Treasury auction cycle is that the bond trading community tends to build in a "concession" ahead of any given aucti...
Wed, May 8 2024, 11:25 AM
After a very long travel day filled with odd, time-sucking delays, when I arrived in Birmingham I was happy to hear Alabama on the Uber car’s radio si...
Wed, May 8 2024, 8:16 AM
Lower interest rates allowed mortgage activity to rise modestly during the week ended May 3. It was the first increase in three weeks. The Mortgage Ba...
Tue, May 7 2024, 4:06 PM
Strong in The AM, Weaker in The PM
Bonds improved fairly steadily in the AM hours. After an initial glut of...
Tue, May 7 2024, 3:58 PM
There have been 3 winning streaks for mortgage rates in 2024 where the average rate has moved lower for at least 5 days and where the conventional 30y...
Tue, May 7 2024, 11:33 AM
Lynyrd Skynyrd sang, “Sweet home, Alabama, where the skies are so blue…” Through the wonders of airship transportation, today I’m off to Alabama. The ...
Tue, May 7 2024, 10:25 AM
The theme of "waiting" amid an empty calendar will be played out by the end of the week (if it's not already played out from most of the past year spe...
Mon, May 6 2024, 4:57 PM
Uneventful Start to What May be an Uneventful Week
Without any big ticket events or major news headlines, it...
Mon, May 6 2024, 4:16 PM
Mortgage rates did well last week, making it almost halfway back to the lower levels seen on April 9th. Why focus on April 9th? That was the last da...
Mon, May 6 2024, 11:43 AM
Think your job has its ups and downs… How’d you like to be a lipstick tester? (You should see the rest of him!) For me it is off to Birmingham tomorro...
Mon, May 6 2024, 11:09 AM
Last week was definitely important for the bond market. The key takeaway was the Fed's acknowledgement of elevated inflation in Q1 coupled with the a...
Fri, May 3 2024, 5:18 PM
Bonds Hold On to NFP-Driven Gains Despite Some Push-Back
Whether you view it as a perfectly logical reaction...
Fri, May 3 2024, 5:14 PM
It was an action-packed week for the housing and mortgage market. Wednesday's Fed announcement was the highlight, but we also got several economic rep...
Fri, May 3 2024, 12:46 PM
On most months in modern economic memory, a gain of 175k payrolls would be welcome news for the labor market. Depending on the context, it still is. ...
Fri, May 3 2024, 11:57 AM
When camping here at Yosemite National Park*, you quickly realize that there is one basic product here that has never changed: nature. Mortgage produc...
Thu, May 2 2024, 4:28 PM
The bond market--which dictates interest rates--had a generally favorable response to yesterday's update from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed didn...
Thu, May 2 2024, 4:26 PM
Counterintuitive Rally And Asymmetric Risk
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory and managed to...
Thu, May 2 2024, 12:20 PM
Thursday was always destined to be the least interesting day of current week due to its lack of meaningful calendar events, but that doesn't mean we c...
