Tue, Jan 30 2024, 4:17 PM
Nice bounce back after AM Weakness
Job openings came in higher than expected this morning and immediately pu...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 12:39 PM
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) didn't used to matter to the bond market. That changed rather abruptly in the past 2 years as mark...
Tue, Jan 30 2024, 10:57 AM
“What do hospital gowns and insurance policies have in common? You’re never covered as much as you think you are.” Although loan officers are not insu...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 4:42 PM
Mortgage rates are in the midst of a bit of a winning streak, but it's about as small and as neutral as winning streaks get. Today was the third day ...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 4:37 PM
Solid Start But Data Dependent
Bonds started the day in slightly stronger territory with gains in both Asia ...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 12:16 PM
Monday is the only day of the present week without any major scheduled economic data. After that, it's game on with the increasingly meaningful JOLTS...
Mon, Jan 29 2024, 10:57 AM
“Sometimes it takes me all day to get nothing done.” But things are always changing. When I was a kid I “got a drink of water.” Now kids “hydrate.” Re...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 4:12 PM
Over the past 2 months, speculation ramped up quickly regarding the pace and magnitude of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Next week brings the first Fed meetin...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 3:00 PM
Uneventful Week. How About The Next One?
Sure... rates moved a bit higher this week as the bond market cont...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 12:54 PM
Pending home sales surged last month, far exceeding analysts’ expectations. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales In...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 11:34 AM
Once upon a time, the bond market looked to the PCE inflation data as the definitive measurement of the Fed's success regarding the 2% target. One ...
Fri, Jan 26 2024, 10:30 AM
Life is a matter of perspective, and LOs and vendors don’t need some momentous weekly or monthly numbers to garner a piece of the $1.5-$2 trillion res...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 3:27 PM
What's Up With Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger GDP?
We're not huge fans of the GDP report as a consistent ma...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 2:48 PM
Who doesn’t think swearing parrots are funny? Although you wouldn’t want your parrot talking about the clap when Aunt Beatrice comes over for Sunday d...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 2:45 PM
The average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate hit its highest level in exactly 6 weeks yesterday. Today's movement was in the opposite direction....
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 2:43 PM
New home sales finished 2023 on a positive note , posting seasonally adjusted numbers higher than in both November and the prior December. The U.S. Ce...
Thu, Jan 25 2024, 11:26 AM
Today's slate of economic data was/is the biggest of the week, by far. Results were mixed at 8:30am with higher jobless claims and weaker durable goo...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 4:20 PM
Today's mortgage rate recap is remarkably similar to yesterday's. Rates rose modestly from levels that were already near recent highs, thus technical...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 4:18 PM
Weak Data, Weak Auction, Weak Bonds
The simplest way to view today's moderate bond market weakness is as a p...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 11:43 AM
For the first time this week, the economic calendar is not completely empty. Granted, the S&P Global PMI data is not the heaviest of hitters, but it ...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 11:10 AM
As attendees head home from the MBA’s IMB in New Orleans, plenty will be eating airplane chow. Maybe you should buy vittles on the ground instead. Giv...
Wed, Jan 24 2024, 8:31 AM
Mortgage application activity has increased in each of the three weeks of the New Year, even though two of those weeks were impacted by federal holida...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 4:49 PM
Remarkably little happened in the bond market today. That means that mortgage lenders shouldn't have any obvious motivations to make big changes to t...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 4:48 PM
Hurry Up And Wait
Monday saw the lowest volume and lightest volatility of the year so far, but Tuesday turne...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 11:06 AM
As the market waits for next Wednesday's Fed announcement, there are a few other central bank updates to digest. This week's examples include the Eur...
Tue, Jan 23 2024, 10:48 AM
Yesterday’s Commentary had a note about Atlantic Bay’s “LinkedIn traffic picking up.” I have been assured by Atlantic Bay’s CEO that the company conti...
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 5:13 PM
The bond market (which dictates interest rates) hasn't had too many Mondays so far in January due to the holiday calendar. Today's example might have...
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 4:58 PM
Modest Gains. No Particular Reason
The week got off to a slow start as far as the bond market was concerned....
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 12:17 PM
While bonds are starting the domestic session in slightly stronger territory and holding sideways so far, the broader trend is still toward higher yie...
Mon, Jan 22 2024, 10:49 AM
Attention in the hallways in the early going at the IMB Conference in New Orleans is varied. LinkedIn traffic seems to have picked up for IMB companie...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 4:55 PM
So far, 2024 has been distinctly different from the end of 2023. November and December saw rates move lower at one of the fastest paces in decades. In...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 4:54 PM
Negative Trend Intact For Now
January has marked a modest but noticeable shift in bond market momentum and F...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 1:33 PM
January has marked a modest but noticeable shift in bond market momentum and Friday provides the latest evidence. While we're content to view most of...
Fri, Jan 19 2024, 11:02 AM
If you’re in Chicago, the newest attraction is “the rat hole.” Here in Denver, besides the cat I saw in the airport yesterday being walked on a leash,...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 3:50 PM
Simple, Logical Cause and Effect
Things have been fairly boring for the bond market recently. We're in a ho...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 3:20 PM
It's Thursday during an era of interest rate volatility. As such, there's a decent chance that we'll find a discrepancy between Freddie Mac's weekly ...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 12:39 PM
December’s housing starts failed to sustain their November growth but permit activity as well as positive news out of the National Association of Home...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 12:23 PM
It's a fairly simple morning so far for the bond market. In a time when day to day movement is highly data dependent, we continue to see logical reac...
Thu, Jan 18 2024, 10:21 AM
Then VP Al Gore supposedly said, "It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it." Here...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 4:58 PM
Rates have been gradually rising across the board in the past few weeks and mortgage rates are no exception. Yesterday, it was the market responding ...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 4:53 PM
Bonds Reacting to Data. Is It Justified?
Retail Sales came out at 0.6 vs a median forecast of 0.4 and rates...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 12:32 PM
This week's only major economic report arrived this morning and it wasn't good for bonds. December's retail sales came out at 0.6% versus a median fo...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 11:20 AM
Today I am in San Diego for the SD CAMP event. At the same latitude, a poll was taken by Texas Governor Greg Abbott's office which asked whether peopl...
Wed, Jan 17 2024, 8:32 AM
Mortgage application activity continued its strong post-holiday performance during the week ended January 12. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 3:36 PM
The last few weeks have seen mortgage rates move in a far narrower range compared to the month and a half leading up to December 14th. That said, the...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 3:35 PM
Waller Unintentionally Sends Yields Higher
The most hotly anticipated calendar event at the start of this ho...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 11:34 AM
While last week saw a generally narrow range, bonds managed to reverse two weeks of losses with 10yr yields moving down from 4.05 to 3.95. The gains ...
Tue, Jan 16 2024, 9:50 AM
“I’m supposed to respect my elders, but now it’s getting harder and harder for me to find one.” Gradually it’s becoming harder and harder to find a ba...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 4:50 PM
The much-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released this week. For those seeking evidence that inflation will soon be back at the Fed's targe...
Fri, Jan 12 2024, 4:50 PM
Good Week For Bonds. Next One Could be Interesting
The bond market traded about as well as anyone could have...
