Mortgage rates were effectively unchanged on Thursday with the average lender very close to the best levels in over a year. But when it comes to the underlying bond market and the rates available to consumers, there are some dislocations that suggest risk is increasing. Specifically, bonds lost ground today. This normally implies higher mortgage rates. But the timing and magnitude of bond market losses can dictate the size of mortgage rate changes as well as the timing. In today's case, bonds were in better shape this morning when mortgage lenders published their daily rate offerings.  There was additional bond market weakness as the day progressed, but not enough to trigger a mid-day rate change from lenders (mortgage lenders prefer to avoid mid-day changes unless bonds make bigger moves). Bottom line: instead of going into tomorrow with a cushion from the bond market, mortgage lenders will have to raise rates a bit in order to catch up.  NOTE: this assumes that bonds hold their exact same levels through tomorrow morning.  That's certainly NOT a guarantee considering we'll get the release of September's CPI inflation data at 8:30am ET.  There's no way to know how CPI will come in. Markets have already positioned for everything they think they know about the data.  In other words, there is a consensus expectation that monthly core CPI will be 0.3% and non-core (headline) CPI will be 0.4%. If the actual numbers are higher, rates would be more likely to rise tomorrow, but if they're lower, bonds could bounce back enough that mortgage rates continue to hold steady, or actually improve. 

October 23, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.18% +0.01%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.74% +0.01%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.10% +0.00%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 23, 2025 Mortgage Rates Seeing Some Underlying Pressure Ahead of Inflation Data Thu, Oct 23, 2025 3:22PM Mortgage rates were effectively unchanged on Thursday with the average lender very close to the best levels in over a year. But when it comes to the underlying bond market and the rates available to consumers, there are some dislocations that suggest risk is increasing. Specifically, bonds lost ground today. This normally implies higher mortgage rates. But the timing and magnitude of bond market losses can dictate the size of mortgage rate changes as well as the timing. In today's case, bonds were in better shape this morning when mortgage lenders published their daily rate offerings.  ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.18% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.74% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.91% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.10% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.82% +0.11 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.93% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/23 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.19% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.44% -0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/23 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.42% -0.01 0.61 15 Yr. Fixed 5.77% 0.00 0.70 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.47% -0.13 0.53 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/15 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.71 -0.03   95.05 99.98 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.16 +0.02   97.47 101.32 10 YR Treasury 4.001 -0.001   3.932 4.780 You Know Things Have Been Pretty Good When... Thu, Oct 23, 2025 10:18AM Everything's relative when it comes to rates being high or low, but let's agree that the past 2 years have relentlessly driven home the notion of an increasingly flat, narrow range that has perfectly orbited a 10yr yield around 4.34%. If that's our reality, you know things have been pretty good when 3bps of gradual overnight selling leaves yields under ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.85 +0.01 UMBS 5.0 99.71 -0.02 UMBS 5.5 101.16 +0.02 GNMA 4.5 97.93 +0.00 GNMA 5.0 99.79 -0.02 GNMA 5.5 100.88 +0.01 Pricing as of: 10/23 11:37PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.488 -0.003 5 YR Treasury 3.606 -0.001 7 YR Treasury 3.785 -0.002 10 YR Treasury 4.000 -0.002 30 YR Treasury 4.580 +0.006 Pricing as of: 10/23 11:37PM EST Other News Agency Approval, Audit, Agent Targeting, Social Media Compliance Tools; Aggregator and Non-Agency News Thu, Oct 23, 2025 11:46AM Economies and strategies impact various groups differently. Remember Mervyn’s, Montgomery Ward, or a dozen other large department stores that are no longer? Saks Fifth Avenue is now rumored to be potentially joining them. Residential lending is obviously impacted by the slowing economy: if you want lower rates, a government shutdown is one way to negatively ... (read more) Latest Video CNBC Housing Market Survey finds most homebuyers expect mortgage rates to c... CNBC Q3 Housing Market Survey: 49% of respondents say its a buyers market a... Spending trajectory looks key to continue narrowing the deficit: Treasury S... Existing home sales rise 1.5% in September, less than expected Around the Web CNBC Most potential homebuyers expect mortgage rates to drop. That's why they're waiting CNBC Lower mortgage rates push home sales higher in September, but prices still stubbornly high CNBC Treasury yields move higher as trade comes back into focus CNBC Refinance demand is 81% higher than it was a year ago, thanks to falling mortgage rates CNBC Government shutdown becomes 2nd longest in U.S. history Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September Realtor.com Low Mortgage Rates Are Keeping Homeowners in Golden Handcuffs CNBC Western Alliance CEO says alleged loan fraud is 'incredibly frustrating' but isolated issue Eye on Housing How COVID-19 Reshaped the U.S. Labor Market and Housing Demand Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as investors look ahead to inflation print Calculated Risk Blog NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in October, Negative territory for 18 consecutive months Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia October 2025 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey

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