Awesome Bounce Back But Still a Cautionary Tale Bonds started the day quite a bit weaker after several pieces of EU econ data came in much stronger than expected.  GDP had no impact, but yields spiked shortly thereafter as one gigantic seller hit the Treasury complex, prompting copycat trades.  A slump in stocks may or may not have helped bonds find their footing.  Either way, yields drifted lower throughout the afternoon, ultimately hitting the 3pm close less than 3bps higher on the day after being more than 8bps higher this morning.  MBS outperformed, and are currently + 2 ticks (+0.06) with just over an hour to go.  That's a stellar recovery, but with yields ending the day higher, this week's underlying message remains cautionary.  Treasuries were in a rally trend all month and this week is clearly a push back against that. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Jobless Claims 553k vs 549k f'cast, 566k prev GDP 6.4 vs 6.1 f'cast, 4.3 prev Pending Home Sales +1.9 vs +5.0 f'cast, -11.5 prev Market Movement Recap 08:17 AM Significantly stronger EU econ data put obvious and immediate upward pressure on yields overnight.  10yr starting out up 5+ bps at 1.663.  UMBS 2.5 coupons are down 5 ticks (.16) at 103-11 (103.34). 09:24 AM Tremendous volatility in MBS by the time we consider bid vs ask prices (only bid prices are visible on MBS Live).  Bonds weakened quickly just after 9am with 10yr yields hitting 1.681% before bouncing slightly lower (1.675 currently).  2.5 UMBS hit 103-07 (103.22) before bouncing up to 103-11 (103.34) in the blink of an eye.  This is still 6 ticks lower on the day (-.19).   12:27 PM Very decent bounce back for bonds, drawing some inspiration from stock market weakness and a technical ceiling at 1.68% in 10yr yields (now down to 1.65%).  MBS are outperforming with 2.5 coupons within 2 ticks (.06) of unchanged. 03:50 PM Solid recovery is now fairly stellar as 10yr yields claw back more than 5bps of weakness (still 3bps weaker on the day).  MBS, however, are GREEN now, with 2.5 coupons up 2 ticks (+0.06).  Credit light supply, heavy Fed buying, friendly Powell y'day, and month-end positioning (favorable index extension for MBS).

April 29, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Awesome Bounce Back But Still a Cautionary Tale Awesome Bounce Back But Still a Cautionary Tale Bonds started the day quite a bit weaker after several pieces of EU econ data came in much stronger than expected.  GDP had no impact, but yields spiked sh... (read more) Housing News Fannie/Freddie Creates Opportunity for Higher Risk Borrowers Who Missed Refi Boom Earlier this month the Urban Institute pointed out that the unprecedented low interest rates of the pandemic era have not benefitted everyone. Their research showed that tightening credit access has meant that low income homeowners, and those with hi... (read more) Housing News Digital Lending Tools are Reducing Mortgage Timeframes There has been a significant reduction mortgage processing times since the first of the year according to ICE Mortgage Technology. Its Origination Insight Report says that the time to close a purchase mortgage, which averaged 57 days in January decli... (read more) Housing News Pending Home Sales Rise Less Than Expected as Inventory Remains Ultra Tight While the degree to which is happened was somewhat disappointing, pending home sales did snap out of a two-month slump in March . The National Association of Realtors'® (NAR's) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose 1.9 percent to 111.3 in March an... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch No, The Fed Didn't Do Anything To Mortgage Rates Today The Federal Reserve released a new policy announcement today. This is one of the 8 times per year where the Fed can opt to change "rates," or adjust its other policies that impact "rates." Fed announcement days have a track record as being some of th... (read more) Rob Chrisman Corresp., AE, LO Jobs; Digital, Warehouse, Processing, Pricing Products; Freddie and Fannie News A “google” is the large number of 1 with 100 zeroes after it. For lenders, a billion is a large number, and it would be unheard of for a lender to save $1 billion in costs. But that is what Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. is saving , ... (read more) Mortgage Rates No, The Fed Didn't Do Anything To Mortgage Rates Today 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.29% -0.16% Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% -0.16 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.21 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% -0.08 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% -0.15 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.59% -0.21 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.97% -0.08 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/5 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.60% -0.21% Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 MBS / Treasuries MBS Live Recap: Awesome Bounce Back But Still a Cautionary Tale UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.16 +0.03 MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.45 -0.02 UMBS 5.5 101.16 +0.03 UMBS 6.0 102.52 +0.03 GNMA 5.0 99.84 +0.02 GNMA 5.5 101.15 +0.02 GNMA 6.0 102.15 +0.01 Pricing as of: 9/7 8:27PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.0733 -0.0134 US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.511 -0.006 5 YR Treasury 3.581 -0.008 7 YR Treasury 3.788 -0.012 10 YR Treasury 4.073 -0.013 30 YR Treasury 4.760 -0.010 Pricing as of: 9/7 8:27PM EST Latest Video Recovery is looking very different from '09 recession, says economist Pending home sales rose 1.9% The 9am Bond Report - April 29, 2021 U.S. GDP jumped 6.4% in the first quarter, vs 6.5% increase expected Around the Web CNBC Job growth could surpass 1 million in April hiring boom as economy roars back CNBC Biden's plan for inherited real estate may impact more people than just the wealthy Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 17% Compared to Same Week in 2019 Calculated Risk Blog A Few Comments on Q1 GDP CNBC 2 million homeowners may be eligible for this new mortgage refinancing program CNBC 2 million homeowners may be eligible for this new mortgage refinancing program Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 553,000 CNBC Economy surges to start the year as GDP jumps 6.4% in the first quarter freddiemac.gcs-web.com Freddie Mac Statement on FHFA's Announcement of New Refinancing Option to Help Low-Income Borrowers CNBC Treasury yields rise ahead of GDP, jobless claims data CFPB CFPB Consumer Complaint Bulletin Examines County-Level Demographic Data CNBC Fed holds interest rates near zero, sees faster growth and higher inflation CNBC Fed rate decision and Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference live updates & analysis

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