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Strong Move Today. Need Confirmation in Coming Days
Bonds walked their own path today with gains overnight holding fairly steady during the first part of the domestic session. Mid-day testimony from Powell/Yellen had no effect on Treasuries/MBS, but a late-day "risk-off" move has bonds pushing well into their best levels of the day. 1.62% continues to hold as a floor and we need a strong break below there in order to add confirmation to the week's positive vibes. Those prospects may depend on the Treasury auctions in the coming days as well as the month-end trading environment (and Japan's fiscal year-end trading).
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
Market Movement Recap
08:29 AM Stronger overnight again--especially in Europe (again). Best levels near 7am and bouncing back modestly since then. 1.626% lows raise concerns about resistance. No major market movers in play. Traders/analysts speaking in generalities (i.e. oversold momentum subsiding, US/China sanction concerns, EU covid resurgence concerns).
12:43 PM Very calm so far, even as Powell's speech begins (just reading prepared remarks). Treasuries sold and rallied to end up right at AM levels currently (-4.8bps at 1.65%). 2.5 UMBS are up nearly a quarter point and haven't really budged all day (2 tick or 0.06 trading range throughout).
02:49 PM Steady at the best levels of the day--just slightly stronger than last update with 10yr down 5.5 bps at 1.64 and 2.5 UMBS up a quarter point.
MBS Commentary
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Strong Move Today. Need Confirmation in Coming Days
Bonds walked their own path today with gains overnight holding fairly steady during the first part of the domestic session. Mid-day testimony from Pow... (read more)
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Housing News
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The two-month rally in new home sales ended abruptly and definitively in February. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development said sales of newly constructed single-family homes dropped by 18.2 percent to a seasonally adju... (read more)
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Housing News
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Mortgage delinquency rates rose in February, ending eight straight months of recovery from the spike that followed the onset of the pandemic. Black Knight, in its first look at February loan performance data, said the national mortgage delinquency ra... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Are you looking for signs of the times? The Wall Street Journal, along with supermarket flyers everywhere, tells us that there are more real-estate agents than there are homes for sale in the U.S.! (At the end of January, NAR, viewed by some as a car... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Despite your thoughts on the term "fake news," we have to talk about it in the context of mortgage rates . It's highly pertinent, even if deception is far from the intention. Thursday is a big day for mortgage rate news because that's when Freddie Ma... (read more)
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Housing News
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A new Freddie Mac survey found that both homeowners and renters are still concerned about their ability to pay their mortgage or their monthly rent as the pandemic wears on. but those concerns have lessened since last fall. The COVID-19 Tracking Poll... (read more)
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