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Fighting Good Fight, Waiting on Fed Day
Coming off a fairly rough Friday at the end of last week, it's mildly reassuring to begin the new week with no additional damage. But as has been the case for weeks, these resilient episodes are noticeably lacking in bullish confirmation (i.e. we're not selling off, but we're not rallying in any meaningful way). The takeaway is simple: it's a rising rate environment until proven otherwise. If one event has the power to change the trading tone in bonds this week, it's Wednesday's Fed Announcement for reasons discussed in the Day Ahead.
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
NY Fed Manufacturing 17.4 vs 14.5 f'cast, 12.0 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:19 AM Fairly flat overnight with initial weakness giving way to a rally in Europe. Both were small. Slightly better selling in the past hour. 10yr is perfectly unchanged at 1.625. UMBS still finding liquidity, but are close enough to unchanged as well.
11:51 AM Additional decent gains heading into the end of European session. France's suspension of Astra Zeneca vaccine lines up with the rally, but tough to say if it's the source. 10yr yields now down almost 3 bps at 1.597. UMBS 2.5 coupons up an eighth.
01:06 PM Giving up some of the gains after the EU bond market close. Nothing too dramatic and MBS/Treasuries both still in modestly positive territory (UMBS + 0.06 and 10yr down 2bps to 1.604).
03:49 PM Uneventful fizzle continues after the 3pm CME close. Treasuries are 2bps lower on the day and UMBS 2.5 coupons are nearly unchanged.
MBS Commentary
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Fighting Good Fight, Waiting on Fed Day
Coming off a fairly rough Friday at the end of last week, it's mildly reassuring to begin the new week with no additional damage. But as has been the case for wee... (read more)
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Housing News
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A study by ApartmentList has identified a new category of workers, arising, at least in part, out of the pandemic. Lynn Pollack, writing in GlobeSt , says this "untethered class" hold remote types of jobs and have little reason to stay put. They have... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Here we are at the Ides of March: only two weeks until the end of the 1st quarter! The time is flying by and time is precious. Last night I slept on the couch to cut down on my morning commute. It worked! Rates have moved higher in 2021, as certainly... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates improved microscopically today as the underlying bond market stayed uncharacteristically steady. Since the beginning of 2021, bonds have been exceptionally volatile with yields moving higher and prices moving lower. That's a recipe for... (read more)
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Housing News
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Homeowners' housing wealth grew by record numbers in the fourth quarter of last year . CoreLogic, in its Home Equity Report for the period, says the average equity in a U.S. home increased 16.2 percent since the fourth quarter of 2019, the greatest i... (read more)
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Housing News
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Black Knight notes a large improvement in forbearance statistics during the week ended March 9. The number of loans in active plans dropped by 77,000 over the week, the largest single week decline since early January, and lowered the number of plans ... (read more)
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