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Reasons For Both Hope and Fear In Today's Trading
Bonds have been in a consistent trend leading toward higher rates in the short term and that trend falls inside a similarly consistent up-trend in the bigger picture. On a hopeful note, today's early strength suggests the bigger-picture trend could offer a supportive bounce in the first half of the week. On a cautionary note, not only did bonds fail to gain much ground today, the buying was largely fueled by short covering (i.e. traders booking profits after having previously bet on rising rates).
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
Market Movement Recap
08:26 AM Bonds were expected moderately weaker after an orderly sell-off overnight. Stimulus, stocks, and auction trepidation are easy to blame for the move. 10yr is up 2bps at 1.189% and 2.0 UMBS are down 2 ticks (.06) at 103.
11:07 AM Bonds bouncing back as EU bond market rallies into its close. 10yr yields almost 1bp lower now at 1.162%. UMBS 2.0 is unchanged on the day at 103-02 (103.06).
02:52 PM US bond rally continued through the AM hours and ended as soon as the EU bond market closed. Holding ground at just-barely-positive levels since then. 10yr down 0.9bps at 1.16% and 2.0 UMBS up 1 tick (0.03) at 103-02 (103.06).
Rob Chrisman
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A Pennsylvania man is suing Smart Water for not making him smart, and here, in this Commentary, I’d like to formally announce my lawsuit against Thin Mints. Residential lenders are not only watching the 10-year yield hit a pandemic high, but ar... (read more)
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MBS Commentary
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Reasons For Both Hope and Fear In Today's Trading
Bonds have been in a consistent trend leading toward higher rates in the short term and that trend falls inside a similarly consistent up-trend in the bigger ... (read more)
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Housing News
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Even with the accelerating pace of home price increases, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) still sees homes remaining affordable. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index for the fourth quarter of 2020 shows that affordability re... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage Rates were steady to slightly lower yesterday even though prevailing trends in the bond market suggested caution. Today's trading is a different story. Granted, there haven't been any huge, dramatic moves, but today's bond market weakness ad... (read more)
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Housing News
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CoreLogic reports that December saw yet another acceleration in home price increases. The company's Home Price Index (HPI) rose 9.2 percent on an annual basis. The increase in November was 8.2 percent. The month-over-month change, 1.1 percent, was al... (read more)
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Housing News
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The homeownership rate fell in the fourth quarter down 1.6 percentage points from its third quarter level but remained higher than in the same quarter in 2019 . The U.S. Census Bureau said the rate, 65.8 percent, was up from 65.1 percent a year earli... (read more)
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