Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining  MBS continue to outperform due to favorable supply vs demand.  Treasuries continue sideways.  In fact, they found a way to express even more uncertainty than the prevailing sideways range of .63-.73 in 10yr yields.  Today's trading range?  .64-.66.  This caps a consolidation trend that will have a hard time getting any narrower.  Perhaps bonds are circling the wagons ahead of tonight's presidential debate and prepared for a relatively bigger move tomorrow? Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Case Shiller Home Prices (July) +0.6% vs 0.3 f'cast , 0.0 prev Case Shiller Home Prices (annual) 3.9% vs 3.8 f'cast Consumer Confidence 101.8 vs 89.5 f'cast 86.3 prev Market Movement Recap 08:53 AM Modest overnight weakness in stocks and strength in bonds.  Treasuries and MBS lost just a bit of ground at the open and are now perfectly unchanged on the day.  UMBS 2.0 coupons are at 103-11 (103.34) and 10yr yields are at .6577%.   12:34 PM MBS made small but noticeable gains during and immediately after the 11:30-11:50am Fed buying operation.  Sellers brough light supply once again.  2.0 coupons are up an eighth on the day.  10yr yields are also near their lows, down 1.14 bps at .646.  Stock market weakness is well-correlated with bond gains so far. 03:45 PM MBS pushing the best levels of the day  (103.5) despite Treasuries weakening just slightly this afternoon.  Keep crediting the favorable supply/demand environment for MBS outperformance and the stock market for ending the day's Treasury rally.  That said, 10yr yields are still more than half a bp lower.

September 29, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 29, 2020 Stellar Housing Data; Rates Inching Lower Fri, Sep 25, 2020 3:50PM Mortgage Rate Update Considering this week's generally positive drift in rates, we shouldn't expect lenders to get less busy any time soon. In recent weeks, there's been a sense that mortgage pricing seems just a little bit "off" compared to expectations. Those expectations are primarily derived from movement in the bond market. When bonds improve, rates tent to improve as well, but that wasn't reliably happening recently. One plausible hunch involves lenders being a bit more cautious with pricing until they have a clear sense of which loans will be subject to the new adverse market fee (not s... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.98% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.68% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.00% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/9 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.17 -0.11   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.46 -0.07   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.079 +0.040   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining Tue, Sep 29, 2020 4:00PM Treasury Consolidation Runs Out of Room, But MBS Keep Gaining  MBS continue to outperform due to favorable supply vs demand.  Treasuries continue sideways.  In fact, they found a way to express even more uncertainty than the prevailing sideways range of .63-.73 in 10yr yields.  Today's tradin... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.53 -0.25 UMBS 5.5 101.16 -0.13 UMBS 6.0 102.45 -0.09 GNMA 5.0 99.84 -0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.09 -0.09 GNMA 6.0 102.06 -0.12 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:52PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.540 +0.052 5 YR Treasury 3.606 +0.044 7 YR Treasury 3.809 +0.040 10 YR Treasury 4.079 +0.040 30 YR Treasury 4.723 +0.033 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:52PM EST Other News Perfect Storm For Home Prices? Tue, Sep 29, 2020 11:35AM The growth of home prices nationally continued to accelerate in July according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. The National Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, rose 4.8 percent in July on an annual basis compared to a 4.3 percent year-over-year gain in June. There was 0.8 percent appreciation month-ov... (read more) More New Homes Bought With Non-Conventional Financing in 2019 Mon, Sep 28, 2020 11:56AM Non-conventional lending enjoyed a substantial increase in its share of the market for financing new home purchases in 2019. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) says, while conventional loans continued to dominate those purchases, its share shrunk from 71.4 percent of the market in 2018 to 65.0 percent in 2019 while non-conventional mortgages in... (read more) Forbearances Ending at a Faster Pace Fri, Sep 25, 2020 10:55AM Black Knight said its weekly forbearance survey found the number of mortgages in active forbearance decreasing at an accelerated rate. Those mortgages fell by 2.6 percent or 95,000 loans over the last week, bring the decline over the last month to 357,000 loans. It was the fifth straight week of improvement and Black Knight noted that since peaking in late M... (read more) Ops Jobs Coast to Coast; Re-Branding, Finance, Digital Tools Tue, Sep 29, 2020 8:56AM Here's a brief video refresher of our tax code if anyone needs it. If eight months ago someone had told you to pick a country where there is a mudslinging election for the highest office in the land, the reliability of the post office would be called into question by the leader of the nation (an ex-reality game show producer), neither candidate being viewed ... (read more) Latest Video Weakened home affordability could impact urban flight Consumer Confidence Index at 101.8, best number since March 2020 Paychex September small business report shows slow increase in hiring Stimulus, election are weighing on the markets: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July news.google.com We're at War': New York City Faces a Financial Abyss - The New York Times CNBC JPMorgan predicts a 10% rally for the S&P 500 and names the U.S. sectors to watch CNBC New York bankruptcies reportedly surge 40% during pandemic Calculated Risk Blog Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.8% year-over-year in July CNBC Democrats' new $2.2 trillion bill includes a second round of $1,200 stimulus checks Reuters Fed's Williams sees about three years for full U.S. recovery Calculated Risk Blog MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines to 6.87%" CNBC If the presidential debate has a clear winner, it could show up in a big market move Calculated Risk Blog New Home Prices CNBC The U.S. is 'not in a good place' as daily coronavirus cases grow beyond 40,000, Fauci says Calculated Risk Blog Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Recovery Picks Up Steam" in September NAHB Eye on Housing Share of Non-Conventional Financing Increased in 2019

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