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Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?
The end of the week brings the first Friday of the month (of October!) and thus the big jobs report--the economic data that has ruled all others throughout bond market history. The post-covid bond market dynamic means the jobs report would have to fall almost unimaginably far from forecasts to have a big impact. What to do in the meantime? Same thing we do every day for the past few months: guard the range and wait for breakout.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
Market Movement Recap
08:37 AM Stocks opened stronger overnight after Friday's later rally. S&P futures up 1.42% to start and bonds paid some attention to those gains with 10yr yields up just over 1bp to .668%. MBS are opening 1 tick (0.03) weaker at 103-09 (103.28).
02:47 PM Nice upward drift in MBS prices, yet again, despite modest weakness in Treasuries. Like last week, credit lighter supply from MBS sellers, and Treasuries being harder hit by stock market gains (which is still not very hard). 10yr yields up .65bps to .663. And 2.0 UMBS up almost an eighth at 103-12 (103.125).
MBS Commentary
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Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range?
The end of the week brings the first Friday of the month (of October!) and thus the big jobs report--the economic data that has ruled all others throughout bond market h... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Thank you to those who wrote commenting about the Yelp study showing that 164,000 businesses across our nation have closed since March . “Bouncing back” quickly from that is not likely, and at some level it impacts past and future borrowe... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage Rate Update Considering this week's generally positive drift in rates, we shouldn't expect lenders to get less busy any time soon. In recent weeks, there's been a sense that mortgage pricing seems just a little bit "off" compared to expectat... (read more)
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Housing News
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Black Knight said its weekly forbearance survey found the number of mortgages in active forbearance decreasing at an accelerated rate. Those mortgages fell by 2.6 percent or 95,000 loans over the last week, bring the decline over the last month to 35... (read more)
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Housing News
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Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 27.7 percent in August compared to a 20.0 percent gain in July. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.533 trillion compared to $2.476 ... (read more)
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Housing News
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In its 2 nd quarter Foreclosure Prevention and Refinance Report the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) says it has helped almost 4.7 million distressed homeowners since it became conservator of the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in August 2008. O... (read more)
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