Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range? The end of the week brings the first Friday of the month (of October!) and thus the big jobs report--the economic data that has ruled all others throughout bond market history.  The post-covid bond market dynamic means the jobs report would have to fall almost unimaginably far from forecasts to have a big impact.  What to do in the meantime?  Same thing we do every day for the past few months: guard the range and wait for breakout. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Market Movement Recap 08:37 AM Stocks opened stronger overnight after Friday's later rally.  S&P futures up 1.42% to start and bonds paid some attention to those gains with 10yr yields up just over 1bp to .668%.  MBS are opening 1 tick (0.03) weaker at 103-09 (103.28). 02:47 PM Nice upward drift in MBS prices, yet again, despite modest weakness in Treasuries.  Like last week, credit lighter supply from MBS sellers, and Treasuries being harder hit by stock market gains (which is still not very hard).  10yr yields up .65bps to .663.  And 2.0 UMBS up almost an eighth at 103-12 (103.125).

September 28, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range? Jobs Week. Now Can We Break The Range? The end of the week brings the first Friday of the month (of October!) and thus the big jobs report--the economic data that has ruled all others throughout bond market h... (read more) Rob Chrisman Hiring Process Analysis; Sales, Marketing, Fee Collection, Margin Tools; Flood Insurance Questions Thank you to those who wrote commenting about the Yelp study showing that 164,000 businesses across our nation have closed since March . “Bouncing back” quickly from that is not likely, and at some level it impacts past and future borrowe... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Stellar Housing Data; Rates Inching Lower Mortgage Rate Update Considering this week's generally positive drift in rates, we shouldn't expect lenders to get less busy any time soon. In recent weeks, there's been a sense that mortgage pricing seems just a little bit "off" compared to expectat... (read more) Housing News Forbearances Ending at a Faster Pace Black Knight said its weekly forbearance survey found the number of mortgages in active forbearance decreasing at an accelerated rate. Those mortgages fell by 2.6 percent or 95,000 loans over the last week, bring the decline over the last month to 35... (read more) Housing News 70% of Freddie's Portfolio Suggests Refis Aren't Dead Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 27.7 percent in August compared to a 20.0 percent gain in July. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.533 trillion compared to $2.476 ... (read more) Housing News FHFA's Official Report on Q2 Mortgage Relief Numbers In its 2 nd quarter Foreclosure Prevention and Refinance Report the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) says it has helped almost 4.7 million distressed homeowners since it became conservator of the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in August 2008. O... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.27% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.85% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.32% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.29% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/3 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.98% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.80% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/3 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% -0.09 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.06% -0.05 0.67 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.78% -0.10 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.64 -0.20 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.64 -0.20 UMBS 6.0 101.43 -0.13 GNMA 5.5 99.86 -0.11 GNMA 6.0 101.34 -0.06 Pricing as of: 7/6 6:33AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3467 +0.0669 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.883 +0.095 5 YR Treasury 3.937 +0.070 7 YR Treasury 4.125 +0.068 10 YR Treasury 4.347 +0.067 30 YR Treasury 4.863 +0.055 Pricing as of: 7/6 6:33AM EST Latest Video Stimulus, election are weighing on the markets: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel The 9 a.m. Bond Report: September 28, 2020 Why Latinos are driving the increase in homeownership Democrats' relief package could be voted on as soon as next week Around the Web CNBC If the presidential debate has a clear winner, it could show up in a big market move Calculated Risk Blog New Home Prices CNBC The U.S. is 'not in a good place' as daily coronavirus cases grow beyond 40,000, Fauci says Calculated Risk Blog Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Recovery Picks Up Steam" in September NAHB Eye on Housing Share of Non-Conventional Financing Increased in 2019 Calculated Risk Blog Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy Calculated Risk Blog Commercial Real Estate Scarring Calculated Risk Blog September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 5% Year-over-year Decline Brookings Institution Charts of the Week: Federal debt, middle-class income, rental housing distress NAR - Realtor.com U.S. Buyers Face Significant Inventory Shortages CNBC Taxes are likely to go up for the wealthy in these nine states Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Forecasts CNBC It's not entirely clear how the government will pay for Trump's $200 Medicare cards

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