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Still Waiting on Bonds to Attempt a Range Breakout
Yesterday's Fed announcement managed to deliver the bare minimum of the market's expectations and underdeliver on fairly reasonable hopes. That resulted in a logical protest from both stocks and bonds. This carried over into today, but bonds have yet to even attempt to break their prevailing range.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
Jobless Claims 860k vs 850k f'cast , 893k prev
Housing Starts 1.416m vs 1.478m f'cast, 1.492m prev
Philly Fed Index 15.0 vs 15.0 f'cast, 17.2 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:33 AM Stock prices and bond yields drifted lower in the overnight session with 10yr yields almost 4bps lower by 8am. Early econ data isn't hurting with none of the 3 reports beating forecasts. Yields are now down 4.6bps at .653 and 2.0 UMBS are up an eighth at 103.125.
09:45 AM Bond yields bounced with stock prices--neither by very much. 10yr yields are still down 3bps at .667. Stocks are still off almost 1.5%. 2.0 UMBS are still up 2 ticks (0.06), but down just as much from the highs seen at 9am.
02:30 PM MBS hit their weakest levels around 1pm and have bounced modestly since then. 2.0 UMBS are up 2 ticks (0.06). 10yr yields are near the highs of the day but still down 1.5bps at .684. Stocks parted ways with bonds at 11am and moved back toward their lows (down 1.5% in S&P futures).
MBS Commentary
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Still Waiting on Bonds to Attempt a Range Breakout
Yesterday's Fed announcement managed to deliver the bare minimum of the market's expectations and underdeliver on fairly reasonable hopes. That resulted in a... (read more)
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Housing News
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Residential construction activity took a breather in August. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development reported this morning that all three measures, housing permits, starts, and completions, were lower than their une... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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What will the Fed do to mortgage rates ? This is actually a bit of a trick question . The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates. The Fed's policy rate applies to overnight loans between large financial institutions. The only way it directly influences mortg... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Why is it that every time I call some place, I hear the recording, “Wait times to speak to a representative are longer than normal.”? Why can’t I ever figure out a “normal” time to call? I bet that the Federal Emergency ... (read more)
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Housing News
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The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) set a new high this month, breaking a record that it set only 30 days earlier. The Index, a measure of builder confidence in the new home market, rose 5 points to... (read more)
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Housing News
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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that mortgage applications declined during the week ending September 11, 2020. The week's results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of all mortgage ... (read more)
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