Mortgage Market Looking For a Better Week For Two Reasons Last week was unpleasant in the mortgage world, to say the least.  Rates suffered a double whammy due to the surprise 50bp LLPA on refis and the trend breakout in the broader bond market.  Ideally, lenders will have priced in the worst of the LLPA drama last week.  Combine that with a potentially supportive reversal in bonds, and this could be a much better week.   Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) NAHB Builder Confidence 78 vs 73 f'cast , 72 prev NY Fed Manufacturing 3.7 vs 15.0 f'cast , 17.2 prev Market Movement Recap 10:30 AM Bonds opened slightly stronger as they continue lowering the defenses raised to last week's heavy supply.  Gains faded a bit at the 9:30am NYSE open, but both MBS and Treasuries are now back to their best levels of the day. 02:20 PM Bonds improved until 12:25pm ET, and have slowly been giving back some of the gains since then.  MBS and Treasuries are both still in positive territory.  UMBS 2.0s are up an eighth after being up nearly a quarter point earlier.  10s are down 2.6bps at .6833, up from lows of .6671

August 17, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 17, 2020 Mortgage Rates Are Not 1.99%. In Fact They're Back Over 3% Fri, Aug 14, 2020 5:46PM Some mortgage companies have generated buzz by advertising 30yr fixed rates of 1.99%. While it is possible to obtain such a rate, there is definitely a catch. Rates are certainly low in the big picture. Up until this week, they were as low as they've ever been . The average lender was easily able to do a conventional 30yr fixed in the high 2% range for ideal scenarios. The situation has deteriorated fairly rapidly since then. More on that in a moment. For now, let's pretend rates are still at all time lows, because even when that was the case, 1.99% still wasn't what it appeared to be. The key... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.25 -0.03   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.49 -0.04   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.049 +0.010   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Mortgage Market Looking For a Better Week For Two Reasons Mon, Aug 17, 2020 3:57PM Mortgage Market Looking For a Better Week For Two Reasons Last week was unpleasant in the mortgage world, to say the least.  Rates suffered a double whammy due to the surprise 50bp LLPA on refis and the trend breakout in the broader bond market.  Ideally, lenders will have priced in the worst of the LL... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.74 -0.04 UMBS 5.5 101.26 -0.02 UMBS 6.0 102.50 -0.04 GNMA 5.0 100.05 -0.03 GNMA 5.5 101.20 +0.02 GNMA 6.0 102.15 -0.04 Pricing as of: 9/8 11:51PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.009 5 YR Treasury 3.570 +0.008 7 YR Treasury 3.775 +0.006 10 YR Treasury 4.048 +0.009 30 YR Treasury 4.700 +0.010 Pricing as of: 9/8 11:51PM EST Other News Builder Confidence Skyrockets, Matching 1988 Record Mon, Aug 17, 2020 10:21AM Builders have tied their 32-year old record for confidence as measured by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The Index, which has been conducted by NAHB for 35 years, jumped by 6 points in August to 78 and is also 6 points higher than it was in March, before the COVID-19 pandemic shut down some construction site... (read more) Forbearances Decline for Second Week, Falling Below 4 Million Fri, Aug 14, 2020 10:05AM Two entities, Black Knight and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have been tracking loans in forbearance plans since the start of the pandemic. They have diverged a bit in their numbers over the last half year, but both agree, in their most recent reports, that there are now fewer than 4 million borrowers in plans. MBA, in their report earlier this week... (read more) MBA Predicts New Home Sales Surge in July Thu, Aug 13, 2020 12:14PM The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is predicting another strong month for new home sales. The association says its Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for July 2020 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 39 percent compared to a year ago and is up 1 percent compared to June. This would be the second consecutive month of annual inc... (read more) FHA, LO Jobs; Retention, Non-QM Products; Training and Events; Investors React to FHFA's Price Shift Mon, Aug 17, 2020 10:13AM Out in California and parts of the West it’s “hotter than Satan’s house cat.” California is once again having rolling power outages, and an opinion piece by the ex-CEO of Wells Fargo doesn’t paint an improving picture on the financial side of things. (Susan Milazzo, the CEO of the California MBA, is also following a potential ne... (read more) Latest Video Millennials turning to Instagram to purchase 'Cheap Old Houses' Homebuilder sentiment jumps to record high August Empire State Index comes in at 3.7, versus 19 expected Boockvar: Supply chain disruption will likely fuel inflation Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog CAR on California July Housing: Sales up 6% YoY, Active Listings down 48% YoY Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Finds Decline in People Paying Rent in August Redfin Just 6% of Homes Held Open Houses During First Week on Market in July, Down From 16% a Year Earlier Calculated Risk Blog MBA: "Mortgage Delinquencies Spike in the Second Quarter of 2020" Redfin Homebuyer Interest in Rural Areas Rises, With Prices Up 11% in July Calculated Risk Blog NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 78 in August, Ties Record High Calculated Risk Blog NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity edged slightly higher in New York State" in August CNBC Treasury yields fall as coronavirus concerns persist CNBC These business owners who took PPP money will have their loan forgiveness reduced Calculated Risk Blog Q3 Preview: Real GDP as a Percent of Previous Peak Redfin Home Prices Up 8% as Supply Fell 22% to a New All-Time Low in July Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Forecasts Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 3.0 Percent in July; Still 8.4% Below Pre-Crisis Level

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