A Small Risk in a Pile of Good News For rates and the bond market, the news has been almost exclusively good for weeks-to-months.  Most recently, we've seen lower lows than ever and spent more time remaining in that range than any past trip to all-time lows.  In other words, we would typically expect a bounce by now.  Interestingly enough, there is a very small hint at such a bounce emerging.  While it's too soon to worry about it, it's not too soon to keep an eye on it. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Existing Home Sales 4.72m vs 4.78m f'cast , 3.91 prev Market Movement Recap 08:33 AM Socks and bonds yields were both slightly lower overnight.  The biggest move followed news about the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston (yes, really).  10yr yields are down 1.9bps at .586 and 2.0 UMBS  are up 2 ticks (0.06). 10:44 AM No detectable reaction to home sales data.  Bonds remain roughly unchanged-to-slightly-stronger.  10yr yields may be seeing some resistance at the range floor of .58%. 01:25 PM 2.0 UMBS are now up an eighth of a point on the day at 103-01 (103.03). 10yr yields are down 1.6bps at .589 and as yet unwilling to break below the .58% range boundary.  MBS outperformance followed the Fed's last bond buying operation of the day. 03:22 PM There was a fairly quick bout of selling just after 2pm, but it has since been corrected.  It was more noticeable in MBS than Treasuries. Both lost a bit of ground but remain modestly stronger on the day.

July 22, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: A Small Risk in a Pile of Good News A Small Risk in a Pile of Good News For rates and the bond market, the news has been almost exclusively good for weeks-to-months.  Most recently, we've seen lower lows than ever and spent more time remai... (read more) Housing News Existing Home Sales Roared Back in June, Ending 3-Month Drought Existing home sales ended a three-month string of losses arising out of the COVID-19 pandemic with a flourish, soaring by 20.7 percent from May to June. Sales rose from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units in May to 4.72 million un... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Are Still Amazing, But Improving at a Slower Pace Now Mortgage rates have been holding a very narrow range since July 9th. They also hit new all-time lows on July 9th. A few of the days since then have been slightly better and--less frequently--slightly worse, but any one of them is noticeably better th... (read more) Housing News Mortgage Apps Continue Gains, Forbearance Totals Drop Below 4 Million Even with some interest rates ticking higher, both purchase and refinance activity increased last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.1 percent on a ... (read more) Housing News Home Prices Fell Slightly in May House prices fell in May, although they remain well ahead of prices a year earlier. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said its House Price Index (HPI) dropped by 0.3 percent from its April levels. Prices were down or unchanged in eight of the... (read more) Rob Chrisman eClosing, Broker, Servicing Products; USDA Rural Tidbits; Forbearance Stats Improving Originators, as Deb from Virginia reminded me, are currently like ducks: cool and calm on the surface, paddling frantically underneath. Originators like low rates, but not if their clients can’t qualify for a loan. Furloughs are becoming perman... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.81% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.39% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.92% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.27% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.40% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.04% -0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.92% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/17 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.82% +0.05 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.07 0.66 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.81% +0.12 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/16 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.24 +0.12 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.24 +0.12 UMBS 6.0 101.20 +0.08 GNMA 5.5 99.55 +0.27 GNMA 6.0 101.21 +0.24 Pricing as of: 7/18 7:19PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4195 -0.0338 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.870 -0.034 5 YR Treasury 3.946 -0.044 7 YR Treasury 4.172 -0.038 10 YR Treasury 4.420 -0.034 30 YR Treasury 4.984 -0.024 Pricing as of: 7/18 7:19PM EST Latest Video GOP mulling unemployment boost of $400 per month through Dec. 31, sources t... Rise in home sales may be the result of pent-up demand: UBS's U.S. housing ... Dow rises slightly on positive vaccine news—Four experts on what it means f... Existing home sales jump 20.7% in June, largest one-month jump ever Around the Web CNBC Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on US economic outlook: `We're in for a very bumpy ride' Calculated Risk Blog AIA: "Architecture billings remain in negative territory, begin to stabilize" Calculated Risk Blog Comments on June Existing Home Sales CNBC Former Fed Vice Chair Blinder says cutting government aid would be a 'catastrophic mistake' Calculated Risk Blog Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 26.4% Missed or Expect to Miss Rent or Mortgage Payment CNBC Existing home sales surge nearly 21% in June the highest monthly gain on record NAHB Eye on Housing Affordable Housing Credit Beneficiaries: 2020 Update CNBC Buying your first home may cost more than you think. Here's what to expect Reuters U.S. orders China to shut Houston consulate in move China calls 'unprecedented escalation' Calculated Risk Blog New York City Subway Usage CNBC Key Senate committee approves Shelton, Waller for Fed positions CNBC Employment recovery going backward in states hit hard by virus, small business data shows NPR Record Low Mortgage Rates Put More Cash In Pockets, But May Not Boost Economy Much

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