Bonds Are Boring Today, So Let's Talk About 1.5 UMBS Treasuries did little to react to a smattering of potentially market moving headlines today (surprisingly little, in fact, considering Treasury is unexpectedly clawing back hundreds of billions of dollars of the Federal Reserve's lending power and suggesting those funds be redirected to targeted stimulus).  Rather than force a discussion of questionably relevant market movers, we can instead focus on something of actual interest to the mortgage bond market: the rapid increase in prevalence of 1.5 UMBS 30yr fixed coupons!  Today's AM commentary and video go into much more detail on the topic.  Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Market Movement Recap 09:48 AM Treasuries started the overnight session in stronger territory as Secretary Mnuchin's request for the Fed to return $455 bln earmarked for pandemic response created an uncertainty bid (and lowered the implied supply pressure on US government debt). This move was unexpected as far as markets and the Fed are concerned.  Mnuchin clarified his stance in a CNBC interview this morning and bonds bounced back into weaker territory.  10yr yields are up half a bp at .847 and MBS are down 1-2 ticks, bringing them right in line with yesterday's best levels (not counting the pop right at the close). 01:30 PM Treasuries have been fairly stable after modest losses in the 9am hour.  Yields are still slightly lower on the day at .836 (10yr).  MBS are underperforming with 1.5 and 2.0 UMBS coupons both slightly weaker vs yesterday's latest levels (2 ticks or -0.06).  Stocks are still slightly weaker on the day as well.  Trading is ho-hum ahead of the holiday week with little (if any) clear connections between news/data and market reactions.

November 20, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Nov 20, 2020 Time Once Again to Discuss "All-Time Low" Mortgage Rates Thu, Nov 19, 2020 4:40PM August 4th, 2020 was the best day ever for mortgage rates . That's when we hit the lowest all-time lows we've ever seen, and none of the most prevalent news stories about all-time lows since then have been technically accurate. What's going on here? So many things... but they're not too complicated. First off, there is no universal mortgage rate . The closest thing to a purely universal benchmark that will ever exist is the trading price of the bonds that underlie the mortgage market. These bonds (mortgage-backed securities or MBS) determine how much mortgage loans are worth to investors, thus... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.98% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.79 +0.20   95.05 100.47 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.20 +0.17   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.049 -0.032   3.706 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Bonds Are Boring Today, So Let's Talk About 1.5 UMBS Fri, Nov 20, 2020 3:43PM Bonds Are Boring Today, So Let's Talk About 1.5 UMBS Treasuries did little to react to a smattering of potentially market moving headlines today (surprisingly little, in fact, considering Treasury is unexpectedly clawing back hundreds of billions of dollars of the Federal Reserve's lending power and suggesting those ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.80 +0.18 UMBS 5.0 99.79 +0.21 UMBS 5.5 101.21 +0.17 GNMA 4.5 98.17 +0.15 GNMA 5.0 100.06 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.06 +0.17 Pricing as of: 9/18 7:56AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.524 -0.040 5 YR Treasury 3.614 -0.042 7 YR Treasury 3.799 -0.040 10 YR Treasury 4.048 -0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.654 -0.034 Pricing as of: 9/18 7:56AM EST Other News Average Loan Taking Almost 2 Months to Close, But With Record Low Rates Thu, Nov 19, 2020 5:27PM Ellie Mae said the interest rate across all closed loans dropped below 3 percent for the first time in the nine years the company has been tracking the data. Ellie Mae is now a part of ICE Mortgage Technology, a division of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., a NYSE listed firm. The company's Origination Insight Report shows that the 30-year note rate for VA lo... (read more) Forbearance Totals Edge Up After Two Week Decline Fri, Nov 20, 2020 12:07PM The forbearance plan rolls expanded slightly over the past week, reversing two weeks of falling numbers. Black Knight said the total of loans in approved plans, which had declined by 273,000 over the previous two weeks, rose by 30,000. This brings the number of forborne loans to 2.77 million or 5.2 percent of the country's 53 million active mortgages. Even w... (read more) Mortgage Regulator Finalizes Capital Requirement Rule Thu, Nov 19, 2020 5:24PM The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has reached another milestone as it tries to resolve the 12-year conservatorship of the GSEs. On Wednesday it released a new regulatory capital framework for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The final rule, a revision of a proposal made in 2018, reflects the 128 comments made on the 2018 proposal and well as other outreac... (read more) Product Mgt., MLO, Ops Jobs Across the Country; VA IRRRL, Training Events; Mortgage Servicing News Fri, Nov 20, 2020 10:10AM Many years ago I was hanging out with George Clooney and made the mistake of telling him, “Look, you’ll never amount to much as an actor. You’d be much better off sending out a free daily commentary.” He thought differently and it led to a rift between us, and we haven’t spoken since. Looking back, it was probably a mistake on m... (read more) Latest Video Home Depot and Lowe's Q3 earnings prove home improvement is still hot The 9 a.m. Bond Report: November 20, 2020 Chicago Fed's Evans says he's disappointed by Treasury’s move to stop fundi... What Treasury's dispute with the Fed means for the incoming administration Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Quarterly Starts by Purpose and Design NAR - Realtor.com Home Buyers During Covid Say It Takes a Village To Find a House Calculated Risk Blog Q4 GDP Forecasts CNBC JPMorgan says first quarter GDP will decline because of rising Covid cases and restrictions Calculated Risk Blog BLS: October Unemployment rates down in 37 States, Higher in 8 States CNBC Mnuchin says he'll 'work closely' with his successor if Joe Biden's win is certified Calculated Risk Blog Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly news.google.com The housing market is still on fire: Morning Brief CNBC Evans says Fed programs are important backstop, disappointed by Treasury's move to stop some funding CNBC Treasury yields fall after Mnuchin pulls plug on Fed lending power Reuters Mnuchin pulls plug on some pandemic lending programs that Fed considers essential CNBC Mnuchin decision cuts Fed lending power, but sources say emergency programs can be revived news.google.com China dumps more US Treasuries, as holdings hit 3.5 year low

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