Rates Running Out of Things to be Afraid Of? Bonds improved today--mostly during the overnight trading session, but they did a good job defending those gains during domestic hours.  Friendly Fed comments and weaker economic data were only modestly helpful.  On the other side of the battle, heavy corporate bond issuance, negative technical momentum and yesterday's vaccine news should at least be keeping the bears in the fight.  If those factors aren't enough to keep the threat of 1.0%+ 10yr yields on the table this week, it's hard to imagine what would be. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Retail Sales 0.3 vs 0.5 f'cast, 1.6 prev (revised down from 1.9) Core Retail Sales 0.1 vs 0.5 f'cast Last month's Retail Sales revised lower by 0.3 (and "core" by 0.5)  Industrial Production 1.1 vs 1.0 f'cast, -0.4 prev Builder Confidence 90 vs 85 f'cast, 85 prev Market Movement Recap 08:46 AM Bonds rallied during European market hours with 10yr yields roughly 3bps lower at .885 to start the domestic session.  Weaker Retail Sales data helped bonds gain a bit more ground and caused overnight stock weakness to extend a bit.  UMBS 1.5 and 2.0 coupons are both an eighth a point lower with a small fraction of those gains arriving after the data. 12:57 PM Much like yesterday, bonds are sticking to narrow ranges without much fuss.  Apart from the morning's Retail Sales reaction, econ data hasn't played a big role.  Notably, bonds are holding gains despite a recovery in stocks.  10yr yields are down 3.3bps at .878 and MBS are up just over an eighth of a point. 03:40 PM Both Treasuries and MBS are near their best levels of the day as trading winds down.  The gains come in spite of heavy corporate bond issuance and a mid-day bounce in stocks.  We can point toward technicals, economic data, and downbeat comments from Fed speakers (comments that spoke to the possibility of additional accommodation in December).

November 17, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Nov 17, 2020 Surprisingly Calm Day For Mortgage Rates Mon, Nov 16, 2020 3:56PM Last week, trial results from Pfizer's covid vaccine sent shockwaves through financial markets. Stock prices and bond yields both moved decisively higher. In general, higher bond yields coincide with higher mortgage rates. Last week was no exception, but the mortgage market definitely has much more insulation than normal against bond market weakness. That means big spikes in Treasury yields have translated to smaller spikes in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, higher rates are higher rates, so it made sense to expect another reaction to this morning's deja vu moment when Moderna's vaccine trial res... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.99% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.64% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/15 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.32 +0.03   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.49 +0.04   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.025 -0.015   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Rates Running Out of Things to be Afraid Of? Tue, Nov 17, 2020 4:04PM Rates Running Out of Things to be Afraid Of? Bonds improved today--mostly during the overnight trading session, but they did a good job defending those gains during domestic hours.  Friendly Fed comments and weaker economic data were only modestly helpful.  On the other side of the battle, heavy corporate b... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.94 +0.02 UMBS 5.5 101.31 +0.01 UMBS 6.0 102.47 +0.02 GNMA 5.0 100.24 -0.01 GNMA 5.5 101.27 +0.04 GNMA 6.0 102.03 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/16 6:18AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.531 -0.005 5 YR Treasury 3.603 +0.003 7 YR Treasury 3.787 -0.005 10 YR Treasury 4.037 -0.004 30 YR Treasury 4.658 -0.003 Pricing as of: 9/16 6:18AM EST Other News Low Rates No Longer Offsetting Price Gains; Affordability Wanes Fri, Nov 13, 2020 11:13AM The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said on Thursday that home prices have continued to grow in each of the 181 areas it tracks for its quarterly metro home price report. Both record-low mortgage rates and depleted inventories of existing homes for sale contributed to the annual growth. "Favorable mortgage rates will continue to bring fresh buyer... (read more) Forbearance Plans Hit Pandemic Low Fri, Nov 13, 2020 10:46AM The number of COVID-19 related forbearances plans headed downhill at an increasing pace over the last few week although there is no guarantee the improvement will continue. Black Knight says there was another 4 percent decline , representing 121,000 loans, over the past week. This brings the improvement in the number of plans since just the first of November... (read more) Purchase Applications Drop Back to Mid-Spring Levels Fri, Nov 13, 2020 10:43AM Mortgage applications , especially for home purchases, pulled back from the previous week's level. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, decreased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended November 6. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with t... (read more) MLO Jobs; Income, Workflow, Customer Service Tools; Agency Personnel Changes Regardless of Salaries Tue, Nov 17, 2020 10:58AM Predictions? Show me one person, a year ago, who forecast what has happened (so far) this year! (I went to see a psychic the other day. I knocked on the door and she yelled, “Who’s there?” so I left.) Lenders do their thing, regardless of what the “experts” predict. And there is certainly good news out there, in that lenders, ve... (read more) Latest Video Home builder confidence reaches all-time-high Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on what October retail sales data says... U.S. industrial production rises 1.1% in October, vs 1% increase expected The 9 a.m. Bond Report: November 17, 2020 Around the Web NAHB Eye on Housing Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Q3 2020 CNBC Shelton Fed nomination fails key Senate procedure vote, likely ending her chances NAHB Eye on Housing Building Materials Prices Little Changed in October CNBC One chart reveals depth of damage to U.S. economy during Covid crisis, Leuthold's Jim Paulsen says Calculated Risk Blog NY Fed Q3 Report: "Total Household Debt Increased in Q3 2020, Led by Surge in New Credit Extensions" CNBC Congress is far from sending more stimulus help as coronavirus cases surge and economic pain looms Calculated Risk Blog NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 90 in November, Record High CNBC Bostic says Fed's tools still have 'juice' and will be used if the economy slows Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 1.1 Percent in October; 5.6% Below Pre-Crisis Level Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales increased 0.3% in October CNBC Covid vaccine front-runners: How much they cost, who's bought them and how they're stored CNBC Treasury yields ease back following positive vaccine news from Moderna CNBC Third Republican comes out against Shelton for Fed seat, complicating nomination

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