Bonds on The Defensive as Range Breakout Looks More Serious Last week saw yields break higher after being squeezed by a consolidation pattern inside a wider sideways range.  That type of breakout implied a test of the prevailing range ceiling (.72).  After a head-fake and recovery last Thursday, the new week begins with yields definitively breaking the .72 ceiling.  There are several places to lay blame, but at this point the weaker momentum is its own justification for existence. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) ISM Non-Manufacturing 57.8 vs 56.3 f'cast, 56.9 prev Market Movement Recap 08:32 AM 8:20 CME open saw sellers lined up to sell to start the week.  Some cite preparations for the week's Treasury supply.  Others point to stronger stocks and/or Trump's covid progress.  10yr up 2.32bps at .727 and 2.0 UMBS down 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-13 (103.41). 10:54 AM Things have deteriorated fairly quickly with selling pressure constant since 8:20am.  10yr yields now up almost 5bps to .75% and 2.0 UMBS down 6 ticks (.19) to 103-09 (103.28).   01:29 PM Yields are making a case for a new ceiling at .762% and have been trading under that level for more than an hour now.  Cooperation from a sideways stock market isn't hurting.  MBS have clawed back half of their losses on the day, now down an eighth of a point after being down as much as a quarter. 03:23 PM 10yr yields at new highs for the day now, up 6bps at .765.  MBS have given up most of the gains they'd recovered heading into the afternoon.  The move lines up with a push to the highest stock prices of the day with S&P futures up 1.73% versus 5pm Friday.

October 5, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% +0.06%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.82% +0.01%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.32% +0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 5, 2020 Low Rates Forever? Not Exactly, But The Word "Indefinitely" Sounds Better All The Time Thu, Oct 1, 2020 5:28PM Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. The underlying bond market (which dictates day to day changes in rates) has been more volatile in the past 48 hours compared to the past 4 weeks. Mortgage lenders respond to this volatility in different ways. It's those differences that account for higher rates for some lenders and lower rates for others. But those differences are only in day-over-day terms. In other words, one lender might be higher in rate compared to yesterday only because they didn't respond to yesterday's market volatility in a timely way. Specifically, lenders hav... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.82% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.06% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.32% +0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.98% +0.09 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.08% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/3 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.17% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.41% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/30 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.30% -0.07 0.58 15 Yr. Fixed 5.67% -0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.38% -0.01 0.34 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/29 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.57 +0.12   95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.08 +0.08   97.47 101.40 10 YR Treasury 4.090 -0.020   3.932 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Bonds on The Defensive as Range Breakout Looks More Serious Mon, Oct 5, 2020 3:37PM Bonds on The Defensive as Range Breakout Looks More Serious Last week saw yields break higher after being squeezed by a consolidation pattern inside a wider sideways range.  That type of breakout implied a test of the prevailing range ceiling (.72).  After a head-fake and recovery last Thursday, the new wee... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.51 +0.10 UMBS 5.0 99.57 +0.11 UMBS 5.5 101.08 +0.08 GNMA 4.5 97.52 +0.01 GNMA 5.0 99.79 +0.14 GNMA 5.5 100.87 +0.08 Pricing as of: 11/4 7:53AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.579 -0.030 5 YR Treasury 3.701 -0.023 7 YR Treasury 3.885 -0.020 10 YR Treasury 4.095 -0.014 30 YR Treasury 4.679 -0.015 Pricing as of: 11/4 7:53AM EST Other News Pending Home Sales Just Hit a New All-Time High Wed, Sep 30, 2020 10:04AM Contracts for existing home purchases rose for the fourth straight month in August and more than doubled the increase expected by most analysts. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose from 122.1 in July to 132.8 in August, an increase of 8.8 percent. The PHSI, based on contracts to purchase existing sing... (read more) Forbearances Increase For First Time in 6 Weeks Fri, Oct 2, 2020 9:40AM The number of active COVID-19 related forbearance plans grew over the past week according to Black Knight's most recent survey on the subject. The number of mortgages in forbearance rose by 21,000, the first increase in six weeks. Forbearances among loans serviced for the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continued to decline, down 9,000, but the number of loa... (read more) Residential Construction Spending Up 7% Thu, Oct 1, 2020 11:22AM Construction spending expanded again , with residential construction among the healthier sectors. The U.S. Census Bureau put total August public and private construction spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.413 trillion compared to $1.393 trillion in July. This is a 1.4 percent increase and is 2.5 percent higher than the prior August. On a non... (read more) Sales, Innovation Jobs; CEO Role Wanted; Webinars; Compliance, Database Tools; Disaster Updates Mon, Oct 5, 2020 9:07AM Are you sure that the underwriter or processor working from home isn’t working simultaneously, on a different laptop, for another company besides yours? My guess is that it would be exhausting, unethcial, and would never happen. Except an owner of a small mortgage bank in Wisconsin wrote to me Saturday saying they’d just fired someone for doing e... (read more) Latest Video The 9a.m. Bond Report: October 5, 2020 Treasury yields climb as investors monitor President Trump's health Mortgage bailout numbers rise to 21,000 in the past week Consumer Sentiment Index for September 80.4 vs 79 expected, best read since... Around the Web CNBC Pelosi, Mnuchin speak for an hour but don't reach a coronavirus stimulus deal Redfin Home Prices Up 14%, But Price Growth May Wane Soon Bloomberg Fed's Evans Sees Yearslong Wait Ahead for Inflation Overshoot CNBC This city now has one of the most competitive housing markets in America news.google.com This city now has one of the most competitive housing markets in America - CNBC Calculated Risk Blog ISM Services Index Increased to 57.8% in September NAHB Eye on Housing Sharp Decline in Real GDP in All States: 2Q20 NAHB Eye on Housing Lot Size Hits New Record Low in 2019 Calculated Risk Blog Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy news.google.com U.S Mortgage Rates Fall Back, with Trump's Recovery Now a Key Driver Calculated Risk Blog Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly news.google.com 'Massively concerning' jobs report sends a signal that the economic recovery could be fading - CNBC CNBC Americans could face a long wait for more federal aid if current stimulus talks fail

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