Traders Running For Sidelines Ahead of Next Week's Election Big losses in both stocks and bonds today as traders take their seats for next week's big show.  Month-end trading volumes were huge.  It was the single biggest trading day since June.  After 2016, no one wants to be anything other than nimble on election week.   Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Core PCE Inflation, annual 1.5 vs 1.7 f'cast, 1.4 prev Chicago PMI 61.1 vs 58.0 f'cast, 62.4 prev Market Movement Recap 09:00 AM Mixed performance overnight amid heavy volume.  Stronger in Asia.  Weaker in Europe.  Nearly unchanged to start the domestic session and slightly stronger since then.  No reaction to data.  A few big, obvious, month-end trades helping so far. 03:59 PM Bonds and stocks both lost ground in a fairly big way in the morning hours as traders decided they'd much rather be in cash heading into election week.  Mid-day hours were fairly flat and weakness returned at the 3pm CME close.  Month-end volume was massive--biggest in 4+ months--adding emphasis to the bond market's defensive approach to the week ahead.

October 30, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.12%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% +0.00%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.15% -0.10%   6.15% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 30, 2020 Mortgage Rates Can Only Hold Out For So Long Thu, Oct 29, 2020 2:54PM It was a bit of a bittersweet day for mortgage rates . On the one hand, it was the Fed's first day buying a new category of mortgage-backed bonds--one that would help pave the way for rates to move gradually lower if the broader bond market remains in reasonably strong territory. On the other hand, the broader bond market had a very bad day, thus raising questions about how much longer it will remain in reasonably strong territory. Mortgage rates have been doing a very good job of resisting the implications for higher rates seen in the broader bond market, but there's a limit to how long they ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.91% -0.08 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.15% -0.10 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.92% -0.09 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/16 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.29 +0.00   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.41 -0.04   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.027 -0.014   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Traders Running For Sidelines Ahead of Next Week's Election Fri, Oct 30, 2020 4:09PM Traders Running For Sidelines Ahead of Next Week's Election Big losses in both stocks and bonds today as traders take their seats for next week's big show.  Month-end trading volumes were huge.  It was the single biggest trading day since June.  After 2016, no one wants to be anything other than nimble... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.93 +0.02 UMBS 5.5 101.30 +0.01 UMBS 6.0 102.42 -0.03 GNMA 5.0 100.13 -0.12 GNMA 5.5 101.19 -0.04 GNMA 6.0 101.95 -0.04 Pricing as of: 9/16 3:25PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.509 -0.028 5 YR Treasury 3.585 -0.015 7 YR Treasury 3.772 -0.020 10 YR Treasury 4.027 -0.013 30 YR Treasury 4.645 -0.016 Pricing as of: 9/16 3:25PM EST Other News Fannie/Freddie Report Increased Profits Fri, Oct 30, 2020 11:54AM Both GSEs reported financial results for the third quarter of 2020 that were significantly higher than both their Q2 2020 and their 2019 numbers . Fannie Mae's net and its comprehensive incomes were $4.2 billion and Freddie Mac's net and comprehensive incomes came in at $2.5 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively. Fannie Mae's comprehensive income in the sec... (read more) Forbearance Plans Increase, Many are Reinstatements Fri, Oct 30, 2020 10:12AM The number of loans in COVID-19 related forbearance plans rose during the past week, driven by both an increase in new plans and significantly fewer borrowers exiting from the program. Black Knight said its weekly survey found a net increase of 31,000 mortgage loans in forbearance plans, a 1.0 percent increase. There were 33,000 plan starts. The number of st... (read more) Residential Fixed Investment Soared Past GDP Growth in Q3 Fri, Oct 30, 2020 10:06AM Hidden in the Q3 report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, which showed a rebound of 33.1 percent from the 31.4 percent loss in Q2 was news of some real growth. Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders points out, in an article in NAHB's Eye on Housing blog, that residential fixed investment (RFI), which includes h... (read more) VOE, Broker, Non-QM, Social Media Tools; 1.5 Percent Security Takes Off Fri, Oct 30, 2020 9:47AM Happy X/XXX/XX if you are a Roman. Rome certainly had its share of slaves, and the existence of slavery in one’s family has certainly caused consternation in the present day as buildings are renamed and statues are torn down. Companies that made their fortunes on slavery, like New York Life Insurance , are raising eyebrows. You can’t change histo... (read more) Latest Video The 9 a.m. Bond Report: October 30, 2020 Covid-19 mortgage bailouts rise over three million for first time since ear... The 9 a.m. Bond Report: October 29, 2020 Pending home sales are down 2.2% month-over-month Around the Web NAR - Realtor.com Dearth of Credit Starves Detroit's Housing Market Calculated Risk Blog Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 51% YoY in September Calculated Risk Blog Q3 2020 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate CNBC Fed lowers minimum loan level for small business lending program Calculated Risk Blog Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments NAHB Eye on Housing Jobless Claims Continue to Fall Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.9% in September, Spending increased 1.4% CNBC The ECB hinted at more monetary stimulus analysts expect it to go all in CNBC Earnings for apartment owners show the pain of urban flight Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 31.7% Year-over-year CNBC Pelosi presses Mnuchin for answers on coronavirus stimulus as she pushes to restart talks CNBC Watch ECB President Christine Lagarde speak after latest policy move CNBC U.S. weekly jobless claims total 751,000, vs 778,000 expected

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