Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative momentum move that's been in place throughout October.  At times, stimulus-related headlines have accounted for volatility during this move.  Today was one of the handful of weaker days for Treasuries, yet MBS are down only 1 tick heading into the end of the day.  They've been doing this a lot lately, and it makes it even easier for lenders to avoid raising rates nearly as quickly as the broader bond market suggests. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Jobless Claims 787k vs 860k f'cast, 842k prev Existing Home Sales 6.54m vs 6.3m f'cast, 5.98m prev Market Movement Recap 08:30 AM Bonds opened slightly stronger in Asia and remained almost perfectly flat throughout the overnight session.  There was a brief moment of selling pressure just now following the stronger-than-expected Jobless Claims data.  But 10yr yields are staying in their overnight range, down 1.5bps at .806%.  MBS are up 1 tick (+0.03). 09:36 AM Losing ground now, somewhat abruptly relative to the overnight calm.  Weakness follows headlines quoting Pelosi saying stimulus could be passed before election and that talks with Trump are on a good path.  Treasuries turned negative and are 2bps higher vs 830am.  MBS are also in the red, down 2 ticks (0.06) at 102-30 (102.94). 02:06 PM MBS have bounced back nicely, ONCE AGAIN outperforming Treasuries which are still near their weaker levels of the day.  Stimulus headlines at 10:45am (read more) were the culprit.  10yr is up just over 2bps.  MBS are down only 1 tick (0.03).

October 22, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain Staggering MBS Outperformance Easing Negative Momentum Pain Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative momentum move that's been in place throughout October.  At times, stimulus-related headlines ha... (read more) Housing News Vacation Homes Help Fuel Existing Sales Surge Existing home sales rose again in September and are now blowing the doors off last year's numbers. The National Association of Realtors® says sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 9.4 percent from August to a sea... (read more) Housing News Higher FICO Scores Indicate Lenders are Being More Selective The refinancing share of originations increased again in September, rising 2 points to 58 percent of all loans. Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report for September shows the increase came almost inclusively in conventional loans where the refi share... (read more) Housing News MBA Economists Forecast Record Purchase Volume Next Year Purchase mortgage originations are expected to hit a new record high of $1.54 trillion next year. That forecast, which would be an increase of 8.5 percent over the projected total in 2020, was made at the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) virtua... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Highest in Nearly a Month Rates are appreciably higher than they were last week or indeed any time in past 4 weeks. That's surprising news to those laboring under misapprehensions created by widespread reports of "all-time low rates" from last week. As we discussed yesterday,... (read more) Rob Chrisman MLO Jobs; Shell Available; Servicing, Marketing, Automation Tools; Temporary Relief From the CFPB Want some guidance? “If you get a loan at a bank, you’ll be paying it back for 30 years. If you rob a bank, you’ll be out in 10 years. Follow me for more financial advice!” Plenty of MLOs will need financial advice, given thei... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.81% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.39% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.92% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.27% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.40% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.04% -0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.92% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/17 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.82% +0.05 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.07 0.66 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.81% +0.12 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/16 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.24 +0.12 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.24 +0.12 UMBS 6.0 101.20 +0.08 GNMA 5.5 99.55 +0.27 GNMA 6.0 101.21 +0.24 Pricing as of: 7/18 7:07PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4195 -0.0338 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.870 -0.034 5 YR Treasury 3.946 -0.044 7 YR Treasury 4.172 -0.038 10 YR Treasury 4.420 -0.034 30 YR Treasury 4.984 -0.024 Pricing as of: 7/18 7:07PM EST Latest Video People are buying vacation homes, then taking a permanent vacation: Redfin ... Markets will be volatile until the elections but will go up afterwards: Jos... Pelosi: We're 'just about there' on a stimulus deal Existing home sales spike larger than expected at 9.4% Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in September NPR Housing Boom: Sales of Million-Dollar Homes Double Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Declined in October Calculated Risk Blog Comments on September Existing Home Sales CNBC Hamptons real estate prices break records as New York City wealthy flee to the beach NAHB Eye on Housing COVID-19 Has Impacted Home Purchasing Plans CNBC U.S. weekly jobless claims total 787,000, vs 875,000 estimate twitter.com FHFA Extends Temporary Policy Allowing Purchase of Qualified Loans in Forbearance to November 30th CNBC Treasury yields edge lower as stimulus talks drag CNBC 'More work needs to be done': Pelosi, Mnuchin set more coronavirus stimulus talks as time runs short CNBC The bond market is starting to wake up with interest rates headed higher CNBC Here's the likelihood of getting a $1,200 stimulus check in the next two weeks Calculated Risk Blog AIA: "Architectural billings slowdown moderated in September"

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