Bonds Fight To Remain in Ultra-Narrow Range Yesterday presented a short-term, small scale threat to the bond market's happy little range.  Today's strength has done a good job of minimizing that threat and reinforcing the range.    Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Jobless Claims 837k vs 850k f'cast , 873k prev Core PCE Inflation 1.6 vs 1.4 f'cast , 1.4 prev ISM Manufacturing 55.4 vs 56.3 f'cast, 56.0 prev Market Movement Recap 08:46 AM Bonds were gradually weaker overnight and stocks were gradually stronger.  The 8:20am CME open brought out more sellers, and while stronger econ data at 8:30am may not be hurting as much as it may seem, it's definitely not helping.  10yr is up almost 3bps at .714 and 2.0 UMBS are down an eighth of a point on the day. 11:45 AM AM weakness continued into the 9:30am NYSE open before stock losses helped bonds recover.  Weaker ISM data didn't hurt.  Downbeat stimulus headlines rounded out the bond market recovery, bringing 10s and MBS very close to unchanged on the day. 02:41 PM Losses were fully erased heading into the PM hours and bonds have been holding on the green side of 'unchanged,' though just barely.  2.0 UMBS are up 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-14 (103.54) and 10yr yields are effectively unchanged at .683%.

October 1, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Bonds Fight To Remain in Ultra-Narrow Range Bonds Fight To Remain in Ultra-Narrow Range Yesterday presented a short-term, small scale threat to the bond market's happy little range.  Today's strength has done a good job of minimizing that threat a... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch The Market That Drives Mortgage Rates Just Had Its Worst Day in Weeks Mortgage rates don't just magically appear . Lenders don't choose them arbitrarily. To sustain the pace and scope of the mortgage market in the US (and indeed of most any debt), the cost of money over time has to be carefully considered before a lend... (read more) Rob Chrisman Correspondent, Wholesale, Retail Jobs; Processing, Marketing Anti-fraud Tools; NextGen Homebuyer Report; eClose Usage Stats Fourth quarter already!? Was the third quarter of 2020 the best quarter ever to be in residential lending? Will the fourth quarter beat it? While much of our economy unfortunately languishes, “record breaking” has surpassed “unprece... (read more) Housing News Residential Construction Spending Up 7% Construction spending expanded again , with residential construction among the healthier sectors. The U.S. Census Bureau put total August public and private construction spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.413 trillion compared to $1.... (read more) Housing News Pending Home Sales Just Hit a New All-Time High Contracts for existing home purchases rose for the fourth straight month in August and more than doubled the increase expected by most analysts. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose from 122.1 ... (read more) Housing News Mortgage Applications Slowed as Many Rush to Beat the Adverse Market Fee Mortgage application volume has fallen into an up and down pattern over the last few weeks and last week went to the negative side. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index decreased 4.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.79% +0.04% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.99% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.29% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.89% +0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.35% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.30% +0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/7 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.99% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.80% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/3 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% -0.09 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.06% -0.05 0.67 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.78% -0.10 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.46 -0.03 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.46 -0.02 UMBS 6.0 101.31 -0.02 GNMA 5.5 99.70 -0.03 GNMA 6.0 101.24 -0.03 Pricing as of: 7/8 4:11AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3943 +0.0129 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.897 -0.002 5 YR Treasury 3.962 +0.004 7 YR Treasury 4.159 +0.005 10 YR Treasury 4.390 +0.009 30 YR Treasury 4.927 +0.011 Pricing as of: 7/8 4:11AM EST Latest Video CNBC survey: 61% of investors say second wave of Covid-19 remains their big... ISM Manufacturing Index at 55.4 vs 56.3 expected Here's what the weekly jobless claims indicate for the U.S. economy September auto sales rate estimated as much as 15.9 million vehicles Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Year-over-year House Price Growth to Increase Significantly in August CNBC September job growth should be lessthan August as final report before the election hits Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 31.5% Year-over-year CNBC San Francisco rents plunge, showing strain from pandemic and wildfires CNBC New stimulus proposal grants a second round of PPP loans for hard-hit businesses CNBC Homes sold two weeks faster in September due to unusual surge in demand Calculated Risk Blog Construction Spending Increased 1.4% in August CNBC Pelosi and Mnuchin take a last-ditch shot at a coronavirus stimulus deal Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income decreased 2.7% in August, Spending increased 1.0% CNBC U.S. weekly jobless claims total 837,000, vs 850,000 estimate news.google.com 15-Year Mortgage Rate Sees Another Drop To New Record CNBC Fed's Daly calls for more fiscal help to get the economy out of a 'big ditch' Calculated Risk Blog Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in August

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