In the day just passed, a modest uptrend in yields was "defeated" from a technical standpoint.  Yields broke below a trend-line marking "higher lows" that began last Thursday afternoon and spent the rest of the day moving mostly sideways at stronger levels.  Stocks were weaker but that didn't necessarily have a bearing on bond market strength.  If there was cause for concern, it's that bonds didn't rally below the lows from August 16th (which in turn represented higher lows versus the previous day). In the day ahead, bonds will likely continue feeling out a consolidative range heading into this afternoon's FOMC Minutes.  Keep in mind that the Minutes do not represent a new policy decision from the Fed, simply a more detailed account of the meeting that occurred 3 weeks ago.  The official statement from that meeting already came out on the 31st of July.  The Minutes are hit and miss as a market mover and typically only have a huge impact when Fed policy is in a state of flux.  It's hard to say if that's the case at the moment as they've done a pretty good job communicating a shift away from the rate hike cycle (with the clearest evidence being the fact that they CUT rates on July 31st).   Simply put, the baseline for the Minutes would be a confirmation that the Fed is willing to continue cutting rates if conditions warrant it.

August 21, 2019 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 21, 2019 Mortgage Rates Fairly Flat Today, But Volatility Could Increase Tue, Aug 20, 2019 5:13PM Mortgage rates held steady today, for the most part. If there was a leaning, it was toward slightly lower rates, but not by a wide enough margin to be significant. At first glance, holding steady at the lowest levels in nearly 3 years is great! In fact, it's still great at second glance. But the more information we consider, the more we may wonder why they're not lower. Reason being: 10yr Treasury yields (which often move in the same direction as mortgage rates and by similar amounts) are noticeably lower today! So why aren't mortgages following? For the explanation, we can simply dust off las... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.00% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/12 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.13 +0.02   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.40 0.00   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.066 +0.040   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Consolidating Into Fed Minutes, But Not Because They Guarantee a Breakout Wed, Aug 21, 2019 10:14AM In the day just passed, a modest uptrend in yields was "defeated" from a technical standpoint.  Yields broke below a trend-line marking "higher lows" that began last Thursday afternoon and spent the rest of the day moving mostly sideways at stronger levels.  Stocks were weaker but that didn't necessarily have a bearing on bond market strength. ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.63 +0.06 UMBS 5.5 101.13 +0.02 UMBS 6.0 102.40 0.00 GNMA 5.0 100.00 -0.08 GNMA 5.5 101.13 -0.08 GNMA 6.0 102.01 -0.04 Pricing as of: 9/13 9:09PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.553 +0.009 5 YR Treasury 3.630 +0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.816 +0.038 10 YR Treasury 4.066 +0.040 30 YR Treasury 4.681 +0.023 Pricing as of: 9/13 9:09PM EST Other News Low Rates "Nudged" Existing Home Buyers NAR says Wed, Aug 21, 2019 11:19AM Existing home sales returned to an upward track in July after dipping 1.7 percent in June. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said pre-owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative apartments sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million units during the month, a 2.5 percent increase from the 5.270-million-unit ... (read more) Refinancing Wave Continues; Lenders May Have Capacity Restraints Wed, Aug 21, 2019 8:11AM The volume of mortgage applications continued to be shored up by refinancing during the week ended August 16, but overall activity was down. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index slipped 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, perhaps not surprising after it soared 21.7 percent the previous week. On an unadjusted basis th... (read more) Share of Custom Home Construction Remains Flat Wed, Aug 21, 2019 8:16AM Residential construction has been famously slow for several years and some new analysis of Census data by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) shows that the lack of robustness is shared in the custom home sector. In an Eye-on-Housing blog article, Robert Dietz, NAHB Senior Vice President and Chief Economist says custom home building has been eff... (read more) Customer Retention, Broker Products; Yield Curve and Mortgage Rates Wed, Aug 21, 2019 8:43AM Congratulations to Hawaii which became a state fifty years ago today. We’ve had plenty of economic cycles, small and large, in fifty years, although in general rates have been coming down since 1981. And we’ve had a flat or inverted U.S. yield curve for several months. Inverted yield curves don’t cause a recession: Two consecutive quarters ... 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