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In the day just passed, a modest uptrend in yields was "defeated" from a technical standpoint. Yields broke below a trend-line marking "higher lows" that began last Thursday afternoon and spent the rest of the day moving mostly sideways at stronger levels. Stocks were weaker but that didn't necessarily have a bearing on bond market strength. If there was cause for concern, it's that bonds didn't rally below the lows from August 16th (which in turn represented higher lows versus the previous day).
In the day ahead, bonds will likely continue feeling out a consolidative range heading into this afternoon's FOMC Minutes. Keep in mind that the Minutes do not represent a new policy decision from the Fed, simply a more detailed account of the meeting that occurred 3 weeks ago. The official statement from that meeting already came out on the 31st of July. The Minutes are hit and miss as a market mover and typically only have a huge impact when Fed policy is in a state of flux. It's hard to say if that's the case at the moment as they've done a pretty good job communicating a shift away from the rate hike cycle (with the clearest evidence being the fact that they CUT rates on July 31st).
Simply put, the baseline for the Minutes would be a confirmation that the Fed is willing to continue cutting rates if conditions warrant it.
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Rob Chrisman
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Congratulations to Hawaii which became a state fifty years ago today. We’ve had plenty of economic cycles, small and large, in fifty years, although in general rates have been coming down since 1981. And we’ve had a flat or inverted U.S. ... (read more) |
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MBS Commentary
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In the day just passed, a modest uptrend in yields was "defeated" from a technical standpoint. Yields broke below a trend-line marking "higher lows" that began last Thursday afternoon and spent the rest of the day moving mostly sideways at stro... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Existing home sales returned to an upward track in July after dipping 1.7 percent in June. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said pre-owned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative apartments sold at a seasonally ad... (read more) |
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates held steady today, for the most part. If there was a leaning, it was toward slightly lower rates, but not by a wide enough margin to be significant. At first glance, holding steady at the lowest levels in nearly 3 years is great! In fa... (read more) |
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Housing News
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The volume of mortgage applications continued to be shored up by refinancing during the week ended August 16, but overall activity was down. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index slipped 0.9 percent on a seasonally ad... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Residential construction has been famously slow for several years and some new analysis of Census data by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) shows that the lack of robustness is shared in the custom home sector. In an Eye-on-Housing blo... (read more) |
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