Mortgage rates were decisively lower today, following a massive market movement on news of new tariffs to be imposed on Mexico. In general, trade wars are economically negative. They hurt stocks and help bonds. When bonds are improving, it means bond prices are rising and yields (another word for "rates") are falling. Long-story short, investors are pricing-in a new reality where trade tensions do measurable damage to the global economy. This not only forces money out of stocks and into bonds, but it also implies lower inflation and increased odds of Fed rate cuts. The specific implication for mortgage rates was quite good today. Mortgages have been lagging the moves seen in Treasury yields, for the most part. That was NOT the case today--at least for the lower portion of the rate spectrum

May 31, 2019 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 31, 2019 Mortgage Rates Drop Well Into the High 3's Fri, May 31, 2019 4:16PM Mortgage rates were decisively lower today, following a massive market movement on news of new tariffs to be imposed on Mexico. In general, trade wars are economically negative. They hurt stocks and help bonds. When bonds are improving, it means bond prices are rising and yields (another word for "rates") are falling. Long-story short, investors are pricing-in a new reality where trade tensions do measurable damage to the global economy. This not only forces money out of stocks and into bonds, but it also implies lower inflation and increased odds of Fed rate cuts. The specific implication for... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.98% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.67 +0.09   95.05 100.47 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.13 +0.10   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.075 -0.006   3.643 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Aggressively Friendly Range Breakout Fri, May 31, 2019 8:34AM In the day just past, bonds traded an "outside day" (high and low yields of the day fell OUTSIDE the highs and lows from the previous day).  This signals both indecision and volatility.  In other words, bonds weren't sure which way to go, b... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.69 +0.06 UMBS 5.0 99.68 +0.09 UMBS 5.5 101.13 +0.10 GNMA 4.5 98.08 +0.06 GNMA 5.0 99.98 +0.15 GNMA 5.5 101.00 +0.12 Pricing as of: 9/17 10:13PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.541 -0.023 5 YR Treasury 3.639 -0.017 7 YR Treasury 3.824 -0.015 10 YR Treasury 4.074 -0.007 30 YR Treasury 4.674 -0.014 Pricing as of: 9/17 10:13PM EST Other News Toll Brothers, Others, Turn to Build-to-Rent Fri, May 31, 2019 1:32PM Toll Brothers is embarking on a new business model that may, depending on your outlook, increase the rental stock, provide new opportunities for home builders, or further diminish new home sale inventories. The company has committed to invest $60 million in a $400 million venture that will build homes for rent in seven major U.S. cities. And it isn't just To... (read more) NAHB Has a New Way to Measure Housing Recovery Fri, May 31, 2019 10:38AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is introducing the latest in a series of indices it has employed to measure housing within a broader context of the economy. The first in our memory was the Improving Markets Index (IMI), introduced early in the recession and using 2007 as a benchmark to determine the post-downturn recovery of hundreds of citi... (read more) Pending Home Sales Fall, But Still Holding Most of 2019's Gains Thu, May 30, 2019 10:24AM April's pending home sales had been expected to build on the gains posted in two of the three previous months, but they retreated instead. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sale Index (PHSI), a measure of newly signed home purchase contracts, fell 1.5 percent from its March level. The Index, with a 104.3 reading, was down ... (read more) Broker/Dealer, Sales Products; Jumbo/High Balance Trends Fri, May 31, 2019 9:09AM Congress has become adept at kicking the can down the road, the latest example being, for the 11th time, passing a two-week extension for the National Flood Insurance Program . Those who actually have to earn a profit usually don’t have the time or inclination to delay things, and must act – like closing loans. I remember when there were question... (read more) Latest Video January new home sales drop nearly 7% Bank of America CEO: Loan demand showing consistent growth UK parliament votes on options to delay Brexit January new home sales fall short of expectations, down 6.9 percent Around the Web Bloomberg Fed Funds Futures Now Show Two Cuts Fully Priced In This Year Reuters New front in trade war means Fed's dry powder may get burned Calculated Risk Blog Still Not on Recession Watch consumerfinancemonitor.com Congress Again Temporarily Extends National Flood Insurance Program NAR - Realtor.com Size Matters: Tracking the Economy Through New-Home Square Footage Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year consumerfinancemonitor.com California bill capping consumer loan interest rates clears Assembly CNBC Are you covered for a flood? It's time to check any risk for summer storm damage Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Forecasts: mid-1% Range consumerfinancemonitor.com New Federal Student Loan Interest Rates for 2019-2020 Announced Bloomberg Vanishing Short-Volatility Structures May Slow Treasury Rally CNBC US inflation picks up in April as spending slows CNBC New chart points to 'extremely overbought' conditions in bond market, suggests yields will bounce

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