Fannie Mae's economists are predicting that economic growth will slow significantly in the fourth quarter to 1.6 percent. This downward revision however is not as dire as it sounds. The company's October forecast was looking for 1.7 percent growth in the third quarter due to an inventory drawdown from the General Motors strike and general weakness in the manufacturing sector. Instead, the third quarter growth in the real gross domestic product (GDP) came in at 1.9 percent. They now see that expected inventory drawdown materializing in this current quarter and that GDP for the year will be 2.1 percent. The simulative effects of the Budget Act of 2019, improved business investment and continued strength in consumer spending along with a temporary reprieve from trade tensions have moved Fannie

November 19, 2019 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% +0.06%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.82% +0.01%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.32% +0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Nov 19, 2019 Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Tue, Nov 19, 2019 3:29PM Mortgage rates had a great week last week and haven't done anything to jeopardize that so far this week. Today was the first time during these 2 weeks where rates have merely held steady as opposed to move lower. The recent winning streak requires a caveat , however. It was largely made possible by the losing streak that preceded it. But if we're going to play that game, we could just as easily say that the losing streak was largely a reaction to the even bigger winning streak that's characterized most of 2019. The takeaway from the back and forth above is that rate momentum can often adhere t... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.82% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.06% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.32% +0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.98% +0.09 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.08% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/3 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.17% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.41% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/30 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.30% -0.07 0.58 15 Yr. Fixed 5.67% -0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.38% -0.01 0.34 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/29 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.47 -0.10   95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.00 -0.06   97.47 101.40 10 YR Treasury 4.113 +0.038   3.932 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Thanksgiving Week Trading Themes Trying to Show Up Early Tue, Nov 19, 2019 9:40AM Daily and overnight trading volumes have been declining, and intraday trading ranges have been getting more narrow.  The starting point for that trend was the day after November 7th (when all the news hit about tariff roll-backs seemingly being in the bag for the US/China trade deal).  By the beginning of the following week (last week), we had the ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.42 +0.00 UMBS 5.0 99.47 +0.02 UMBS 5.5 101.00 +0.00 GNMA 4.5 97.43 -0.07 GNMA 5.0 99.71 +0.06 GNMA 5.5 100.81 +0.01 Pricing as of: 11/3 8:03PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.603 -0.006 5 YR Treasury 3.721 -0.003 7 YR Treasury 3.905 +0.032 10 YR Treasury 4.113 +0.038 30 YR Treasury 4.685 -0.008 Pricing as of: 11/3 8:03PM EST Other News Landlords Helping the Economy for First Time in Nearly 2 Years Tue, Nov 19, 2019 1:31PM Fannie Mae's economists are predicting that economic growth will slow significantly in the fourth quarter to 1.6 percent. This downward revision however is not as dire as it sounds. The company's October forecast was looking for 1.7 percent growth in the third quarter due to an inventory drawdown from the General Motors strike and general weakness in the man... (read more) Building Permits Surge to 12-Year High Tue, Nov 19, 2019 10:04AM All three of the residential construction measures tracked by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development roared back in October after posting terrible numbers in September. Construction permits and housing starts moved significantly higher and completions, although driven largely by the multi-family sector, were especially str... (read more) Homebuilder Confidence Staying Near Long-Term Highs Mon, Nov 18, 2019 2:03PM Home builder confidence fell back slightly this month, declining by 1 point to 70 in the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The dip partially reversed the index's 3-point jump in October which had carried it to its highest reading since February 2018. Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conductin... (read more) Training, Marketing, Broker Products; Stocks, Bonds, and Rates Tue, Nov 19, 2019 1:50PM A pass rate of 51% on July’s California bar exam may not seem like cause for celebration, but it’s the first time in six years that a majority of people who took the July test passed. If the majority of people think that there will be a U.S. recession in 2020, will it be a self-fulfilling prophesy? We’re a long way away from negative GDP, e... (read more) Latest Video Renovation cycle hasn't turned, but it is slowing: Home Depot analyst October housing starts rebound, rising 3.8% Housing pressure could be behind Home Depot's earnings miss: Analyst Home Depot earnings: $2.53 a share, vs $2.52 EPS expected Around the Web Bloomberg US, China Explore Tariff Relief Using Failed Proposal From May Reuters U.S. House approves bill to avert government shutdown this week Calculated Risk Blog Sacramento Housing in October: Sales Up 7.1% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 25% YoY CNBC Renting a single-family house just got more expensive CNBC Elizabeth Warren released a plan to lower the cost of renting a home by 10%here's how Calculated Risk Blog Comments on October Housing Starts CNBC Fed's Williams says rates are 'in the right place' but policy is not set in stone Redfin All-Cash Offers Triple Homebuyer Odds of Winning a Bidding War builderonline.com Voters Express Frustration With Homelessness in California Reuters Home Depot cuts sales goal as online push not delivering as expected Redfin U.S. Home Prices up 5.4% in October Reuters Global economy dodges recession by narrowest of margins: Kemp Reuters U.S. housing finance agency to revisit key Fannie, Freddie capital rule

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