Irving Berlin once wrote, "The song might be over, but the melody lingers on." That, according to a paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (San Francisco Fed), sort of describes the Great Recession. A decade after the financial crisis and recession the U.S. economy remains significantly smaller that it would be had its pre-growth trends continued. Three Fed researchers, Regis Barnichon, Christian Matthes, and Alexander Ziegenbein, say this diminished level of output could result in a lifetime present-value income loss of about $70,000 for every American. Not only is the U.S. GDP, adjusted for inflation, well below the level it seemed inclined to achieve based on its growth before the recession, but so are the economies of the United Kingdom and other European counties . This diversion

August 20, 2018 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 20, 2018 Mortgage Rates Almost Perfectly Unchanged This Week Fri, Aug 17, 2018 4:29PM Mortgage rates were almost perfectly unchanged today. That leaves them right in line with last Friday's levels. I devoted a considerable number of words in yesterday's article to explaining why most other articles about mortgage rates were inaccurate yesterday. Suffice it to say that the absence of change compared to last Friday fully drives home the point I was making. In short, due to the primary source data that most news organizations use for their big mortgage story each week, the average article proclaimed a nice drop in rates. In actuality, that drop happened at the end of last week. Fr... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.26 -0.02   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.50 -0.04   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.046 +0.007   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Week Ahead: Slow Data, Vacation Absences, Fed Minutes Make For Uncertain Week Mon, Aug 20, 2018 9:12AM The frustrating thing about weeks that are normally vacation-heavy is that the resulting lack of volume and liquidity can leave bonds in a position to make quick, unprovoked, illogical movements... sometimes.  Other times, the vacation-week game... (read more) MBS Live Recap: Bonds Ignore Stocks to Hold Steady on The Week Fri, Aug 17, 2018 5:30PM 10yr yields ended the week at almost exactly where they began.  With the exception of Tuesday, bonds closed within 1.5bps of each other on the other 4 days this week.  Tuesday was only 2bps higher and gave way to an overnight rally tha... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.75 -0.03 UMBS 5.5 101.26 -0.02 UMBS 6.0 102.51 -0.03 GNMA 5.0 100.06 -0.02 GNMA 5.5 101.21 +0.02 GNMA 6.0 102.15 -0.03 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:39AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.494 +0.007 5 YR Treasury 3.567 +0.006 7 YR Treasury 3.772 +0.004 10 YR Treasury 4.046 +0.006 30 YR Treasury 4.692 +0.002 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:39AM EST Other News Great Recession Still Taking Toll Mon, Aug 20, 2018 3:29PM Irving Berlin once wrote, "The song might be over, but the melody lingers on." That, according to a paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (San Francisco Fed), sort of describes the Great Recession. A decade after the financial crisis and recession the U.S. economy remains significantly smaller that it would be had its pre-growth trends continu... (read more) Fannie Mae Research: Housing, What a Drag? Fri, Aug 17, 2018 11:41AM Fannie Mae's monthly Economic Development papers always have the best headlines, pithy and to the point. The August one reads. "Growth Picks Up as Expected, No Thanks to Housing." Sort of says it all. The company's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Team is upgrading its estimate of third quarter growth based on the acceleration of headline economic growt... (read more) Digital Products; Corporate Moves, Gov't-Owned Banks; Amazon and Marriott Deal Mon, Aug 20, 2018 8:55AM In my travels around the States, I see that some lenders are nervous. Yes, margins appear to have, for the most part, stopped compressing dramatically. Many lenders have exited, as have low-producing production staff. Staff reductions will continue. But veterans of the biz know that summer is basically over, in terms of the locked pipeline. Many locked loans... (read more) Latest Video Santelli Exchange: 10-year caught in the crossfire Kevin Spacey film bombs with just $287 over two days Treasury yields slip to bottom of recent range Around the Web Reuters Exclusive: Trump says not thrilled with Fed's Powell for raising rates CNBC Ten economic experts debate when the US may hit the next recession consumerfinancemonitor.com Treasury's fintech report recommends changes directed at mortgages NAR - Realtor.com Fewer Americans Uproot Themselves for a New Job Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-Year CNBC Trump takes another shot at Fed chairman for raising rates CNBC Here's how much debt Americans have at every age Bloomberg Countdown to Jackson Hole, Italy, Thailand GDP: Eco Day Calculated Risk Blog Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales up 7% YoY, Active Inventory down 8% YoY CNBC Experts predict a recession for Turkey in 2019. Here's what you need to know CNBC The recent struggles of Bill Gross exemplifies the dangers of bond investing CNBC Gundlach warns record bond market speculation could cause big move in interest rates NAHB Eye on Housing Flat Conditions for Custom Home Building

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