While the Labor Department's Employment Situation Report for June showed wages plodding along at a 2.7 percent annual increase, unchanged from May, it is still being outstripped by rising costs, especially for housing. Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows consumer costs overall were up 2.9 percent with the shelter portion rising 3.4 percent over the last 12 months. Shelter is one of the categories in the CPI's "market basket," the goods and services that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) considers necessary for day-to-day living. The CPI does not include housing units which it views as capital or investment rather than consumption items. Shelter is viewed as a "service" provided by that investment and is thus a consumption item. The cost of shelter is broken down into two components

July 12, 2018 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 12, 2018 Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.26 -0.02   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.50 -0.04   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.046 +0.007   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Stocks and Bonds Telling Different Stories Thu, Jul 12, 2018 9:51AM This morning's key data release is already out and it's already proven to be a dud (MBS Live members can read the update HERE).  So we'll head to higher altitude to check in with bigger picture trends  to see what might be on markets' min... (read more) MBS Live Recap: Volatile Day, But Inside The Same Old Range Wed, Jul 11, 2018 5:59PM Today was the most active trading day of the week--something that looked destined to be the case considering markets began gyrating right at the start of the Asian session.  The initial volatility came in response to the announcement of another $200 bln in US Tariffs on Chinese goods. Logically, stocks lost ground and bonds rallied. After hitting th... (read more) MBS Live Commentary: Full Radio Interview With Fed Chair Powell Thu, Jul 12, 2018 2:43PM In a fairly rare turn of events, Fed Chair Powell gave a rather lengthy radio interview with Marketplace's Kai Ryssdal.  Here's a rather lengthy transcript.  Note: This is far from "required reading" given that there's been essentially no market reaction, but it is nonetheless useful insight for those who like to dissect every communication from th... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.75 -0.03 UMBS 5.5 101.26 -0.02 UMBS 6.0 102.51 -0.03 GNMA 5.0 100.06 -0.02 GNMA 5.5 101.21 +0.02 GNMA 6.0 102.15 -0.03 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:39AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.494 +0.007 5 YR Treasury 3.567 +0.006 7 YR Treasury 3.772 +0.004 10 YR Treasury 4.046 +0.006 30 YR Treasury 4.692 +0.002 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:39AM EST Other News Inflation Data Shows Deceleration in Housing Costs Thu, Jul 12, 2018 3:06PM While the Labor Department's Employment Situation Report for June showed wages plodding along at a 2.7 percent annual increase, unchanged from May, it is still being outstripped by rising costs, especially for housing. Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows consumer costs overall were up 2.9 percent with the shelter portion rising 3.4 percent over t... (read more) New Home Sales Need More Trees and Contractors Thu, Jul 12, 2018 2:57PM The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is projecting a decline in new home sales for June, putting them significantly behind those in June 2017. MBA's Builder Applications Survey (BAS) shows mortgage applications for the purchase of newly constructed homes were down 12 percent from May and 8.8 percent year-over-year. The survey's results are not adjusted to ... (read more) UW and API products; FHA/VA/Ginnie Updates; DACA Policy Thu, Jul 12, 2018 8:51AM Chris Whalen notes, “The failure of Bear Stearns & Co a decade ago illustrates the key lesson of financial markets, namely that non-banks are dependent upon 1) banks and 2) clients for liquidity. And no amount of capital will save a non-bank that has a deficit in terms of confidence. In times of market stress, credibility and character are far more... (read more) Latest Video Fed chair: Sustained high tariffs bad for the economy Former CEA chair says US economy may be growing faster than the data shows Sen. Pat Toomey: Senate pushes back against Trump tariff threats Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased Year-over-Year CNBC Fed's Powell says economy is in 'good place' but tariffs could change that NAR - Realtor.com High Rollers Keep Rolling: Luxury Home Sales and Prices Soar Reuters Fed's escape from crisis holdings could hit dead end CNBC Universal basic income would cost the US up to $3.8 trillion per year Bridgewater estimate Calculated Risk Blog Key Measures Show Inflation increased YoY in June CNBC The housing shortage may be turning, warning of a price bubble Bloomberg Charting the Trade-War Fallout Through Commodities From Soy to Copper CNBC Fed official: 'We could end up getting behind if we don't keep moving things up' Calculated Risk Blog BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in June, Core CPI increased 0.2% Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 214,000 Bloomberg Americans Burdened by Increasing Housing Costs, Slow Wage Gains Bloomberg High-Yield Borrowers Play Catch Up After Pre-Summer Window Opens

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