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No Help From Strong Auction or Weak Data; Waiting on The Fed
Bonds shrugged off a big miss in Retail Sales this morning and, despite more of an acknowledgment, did the same after a strong 20yr bond auction at 1pm ET. Yields held well inside the range set by last Friday's extremes as bonds wait to see what the Fed has to say about higher long-term rates, the Fed Funds Rate forecast, and the prospect of extending a policy (SLR) that has helped big banks buy more Treasuries).
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
Retail Sales -3.0 vs -0.5 f'cast, 7.6 prev
Industrial Production -2.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 1.1 prev
Builder Confidence 82 vs 83 f'cast, 84 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:37 AM paradoxically weaker despite retail sales coming in lower than expected. 10yr gave up modest overnight gains... now unchanged. MBS are 1-2 ticks (0.03-0.06) worse depending on the moment.
12:44 PM Weaker since just after 10am in an apparent pre-auction concession (20yr auction at 1pm). 10yr just turned negative and UMBS 2.5 coupons are down 2 ticks (-.06) at the lows of the day.
02:57 PM Just a bit more weakness versus the last update. There as a brief correction into positive territory after the strong 20yr auction, but it was traded out in less than an hour. Now at the weakest levels of the day, albeit only just.
MBS Commentary
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No Help From Strong Auction or Weak Data; Waiting on The Fed
Bonds shrugged off a big miss in Retail Sales this morning and, despite more of an acknowledgment, did the same after a strong 20yr bond auction at... (read more)
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Housing News
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A study by ApartmentList has identified a new category of workers, arising, at least in part, out of the pandemic. Lynn Pollack, writing in GlobeSt , says this "untethered class" hold remote types of jobs and have little reason to stay put. They have... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Time flies. Ringo is 80!? I bet he’s done some vacationing in the last 60 years. I gave my wife a dart and a poster of a world map and told her, “Throw this and wherever it lands I’m taking you on vacation when this pandemic is over... (read more)
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Housing News
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Homeowners' housing wealth grew by record numbers in the fourth quarter of last year . CoreLogic, in its Home Equity Report for the period, says the average equity in a U.S. home increased 16.2 percent since the fourth quarter of 2019, the greatest i... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates improved microscopically today as the underlying bond market stayed uncharacteristically steady. Since the beginning of 2021, bonds have been exceptionally volatile with yields moving higher and prices moving lower. That's a recipe for... (read more)
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Housing News
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Black Knight notes a large improvement in forbearance statistics during the week ended March 9. The number of loans in active plans dropped by 77,000 over the week, the largest single week decline since early January, and lowered the number of plans ... (read more)
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National Associattion of Realtors
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