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Bonds Confirm The Breakout, But There Are 2 Ways to Play It
Today offers firm confirmation of the range breakout we'd been hoping to see this week. These sorts of breakouts are positive signals in the bigger picture, but risk-averse rate watchers can use them as early warning signs for short-term shifts. Today's video discusses this in greater detail.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
ADP Employment 428k vs 950k f'cast, 212k prev
Market Movement Recap
08:16 AM Bonds were modestly weaker overnight, but domestic buyers got an early start around 6:30am. With another slight boost from weak ADP data, Treasuries just turned positive and MBS are effectively unchanged.
11:03 AM Gains extending a bit now, with more friendly Fed-speak, this time from Williams. 10yr yields down 1.6bps on the day to .66% and 2.0 UMBS up 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-11 (103.34).
01:28 PM Comments from Fed speakers have generally been supportive. Bonds hit their best levels just before noon and have pulled back a bit since then. The bounce coincides with stock market strength. 10yr yields still down 2.3bps on the day at .649. UMBS 2.0 still up 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-11 (103.34).
MBS Commentary
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Bonds Confirm The Breakout, But There Are 2 Ways to Play It
Today offers firm confirmation of the range breakout we'd been hoping to see this week. These sorts of breakouts are positive signals in the b... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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For most lenders, mortgage rates improved again today, adding to the 3-week lows achieved yesterday. We normally view mortgage rate movement primarily as a function of the bond market, but the bond market says rates should only be falling modestly fr... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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I don’t know whether my Nolan Ryan rookie card, fortuitously spared from my bike spokes decades ago, is worth $500 or the 10 cents I spent for the pack (with gum!). Values (and worth) can be tricky things. Look at the value of rentals with the ... (read more)
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Housing News
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Mortgage applications, both for home purchase and refinancing, declined for the third straight time during the week ended August 28. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume, lost 2.... (read more)
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Housing News
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It has been rumored since the first wave of the coronavirus struck in some of the densely populated urban centers, especially in New York and New Jersey. Now, however, there is substantiation of a population shift from the National Association of Hom... (read more)
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Housing News
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Construction spending as a whole was essentially flat in July, but residential spending showed significant growth. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that total expenditures from both public and private sources were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate ... (read more)
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