Rising Rate Trend Changing Course or Just Leveling Off? After a modest day of gains on Friday, bonds covered some more serious ground today.  10yr yields were more than 4bps lower at the 3pm CME close, and roughly 8bps lower versus Friday's highs.  Does this mean the prevailing negative trend is reversing?  Or are we simply taking a break while bonds wait for more info? Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) New Home Sales 959k vs 1.025m f'cast, 994k prev Market Movement Recap 08:19 AM Bonds were stronger out of the gate in Asia, largely following weakness in the stock market.  Similar correlation hit once again at the start of the European session where 10yr yields (and stocks) hit their lows together shortly after the European open.  Both have been inching back toward higher levels since then, but S&P futures are still down 1% on the day and 10yr yields are down 2.85bps at .812.  MBS are starting the day up almost an eighth of a point. 01:32 PM Rallying fairly well into the PM hours, mostly following a rather large selling spree in stocks (S&P futures down 2.55% on the day).  10yr yields are down 4.5bps to .796 and 2.0 UMBS are up 5 ticks (.16) now at 103-04 (103.125). 03:22 PM Stocks lost almost 1% between 11:15am and the lows of the day at 1:30pm.  Contrast that with the bond market where 10yr yields were .79% on both occasions.  That builds a case for today's resilience meeting resistance at the .79% technical level.  MBS are up an eighth of a point, just a bit off their mid-day highs, but by no means in distress. 

October 26, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Rising Rate Trend Changing Course or Just Leveling Off? Rising Rate Trend Changing Course or Just Leveling Off? After a modest day of gains on Friday, bonds covered some more serious ground today.  10yr yields were more than 4bps lower at the 3pm CME close, a... (read more) Housing News New Home Sales Finally Level Off at 14 Year High New home sales declined in September for the first time since April. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said sales of newly constructed homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 959,000 units, a 3... (read more) Housing News Some Delinquency Rates are Declining to Pre-COVID Levels The number of serious delinquencies dropped in September according to Black Knight. The 43,000 decline in the number of loans that were 90 or more days past due marked the first improvement in that statistic since the start of the pandemic. The chang... (read more) Rob Chrisman Ops Jobs; Retention, AI, Non-QM, Accounting Products; Southeast Disaster Updates The most reliable way to forecast the future is to try to understand the present. Vendor M&A is rampant (the latest being First American acquiring ServiceMac ). Although there is no way that the “experts” could have predicted the comb... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Don't Believe This Week's Mortgage Rate News. Here's Why Another week, another glut of news articles claiming mortgage rates are at all-time lows. While no one is intentionally trying to deceive you, the news is deceptive nonetheless. Why? Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey is at the heart of the is... (read more) Housing News Homeowner Profits Soared in Q3 The contribution made to household wealth by homeownership is underlined in ATTOM Data Solutions' third-quarter U.S. Home Sales Report . The company said that a typical homeowner who sold a home during the quarter had a gain of $85,000 . This was $10... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.27% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.85% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.32% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.29% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/3 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.98% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.80% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/3 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% -0.09 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.06% -0.05 0.67 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.78% -0.10 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.64 -0.20 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.64 -0.20 UMBS 6.0 101.43 -0.13 GNMA 5.5 99.86 -0.11 GNMA 6.0 101.34 -0.06 Pricing as of: 7/5 3:34PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3467 +0.0669 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.883 +0.095 5 YR Treasury 3.937 +0.070 7 YR Treasury 4.125 +0.068 10 YR Treasury 4.347 +0.067 30 YR Treasury 4.863 +0.055 Pricing as of: 7/5 3:34PM EST Latest Video Dow drops more than 800 points, on pace for worst day since September European lockdowns appear to be making investors nervous, says economist Da... New home sales drop 3.5% in September History suggests a contested election could contribute to market volatility Around the Web CNBC Stock market turbulence could last until the election, followed by a relief rally, strategists say Calculated Risk Blog Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expands for Fifth Straight Month" in October news.google.com It 'looks like the clock has run out' on a new stimulus, says Fundstrat's Washington strategist Calculated Risk Blog A few Comments on September New Home Sales NAHB Eye on Housing Expectations for Housing Availability Improve news.google.com Stimulus check facts: Eligibility, payment amount, IRS schedule to send a second relief payment Calculated Risk Blog Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC Banks may have to brace for heavy losses as commercial property prices plunge CNBC There's a big week ahead for the market with an earnings deluge, GDP data and stimulus negotiations Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Forecasts Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: "October Apartment Market Conditions Showed Some Rebound from COVID-19 Impacts" CNBC Long-term unemployment spikes for millions of Americans. Aid that's kept them afloat may end soon NAHB Eye on Housing 77% of Remodelers Report A Framing Lumber Shortage

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