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Bonds Fight To Remain in Ultra-Narrow Range
Yesterday presented a short-term, small scale threat to the bond market's happy little range. Today's strength has done a good job of minimizing that threat and reinforcing the range.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
Jobless Claims 837k vs 850k f'cast , 873k prev
Core PCE Inflation 1.6 vs 1.4 f'cast , 1.4 prev
ISM Manufacturing 55.4 vs 56.3 f'cast, 56.0 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:46 AM Bonds were gradually weaker overnight and stocks were gradually stronger. The 8:20am CME open brought out more sellers, and while stronger econ data at 8:30am may not be hurting as much as it may seem, it's definitely not helping. 10yr is up almost 3bps at .714 and 2.0 UMBS are down an eighth of a point on the day.
11:45 AM AM weakness continued into the 9:30am NYSE open before stock losses helped bonds recover. Weaker ISM data didn't hurt. Downbeat stimulus headlines rounded out the bond market recovery, bringing 10s and MBS very close to unchanged on the day.
02:41 PM Losses were fully erased heading into the PM hours and bonds have been holding on the green side of 'unchanged,' though just barely. 2.0 UMBS are up 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-14 (103.54) and 10yr yields are effectively unchanged at .683%.
MBS Commentary
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Bonds Fight To Remain in Ultra-Narrow Range
Yesterday presented a short-term, small scale threat to the bond market's happy little range. Today's strength has done a good job of minimizing that threat a... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates don't just magically appear . Lenders don't choose them arbitrarily. To sustain the pace and scope of the mortgage market in the US (and indeed of most any debt), the cost of money over time has to be carefully considered before a lend... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Fourth quarter already!? Was the third quarter of 2020 the best quarter ever to be in residential lending? Will the fourth quarter beat it? While much of our economy unfortunately languishes, “record breaking” has surpassed “unprece... (read more)
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Housing News
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Construction spending expanded again , with residential construction among the healthier sectors. The U.S. Census Bureau put total August public and private construction spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.413 trillion compared to $1.... (read more)
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Housing News
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Contracts for existing home purchases rose for the fourth straight month in August and more than doubled the increase expected by most analysts. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) says its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) rose from 122.1 ... (read more)
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Housing News
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Mortgage application volume has fallen into an up and down pattern over the last few weeks and last week went to the negative side. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index decreased 4.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis ... (read more)
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