In the day just passed, the recent bond market selling-spree showed its first serious signs of leveling off since it began one week ago.  This wasn't as triumphant is it sounds, however.  Treasuries were unwilling to follow European bond yields lower in the early morning hours.  Furthermore, after the very decent 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm, bonds were again unwilling to make noticeable improvements.  In short, bonds looked to be taking their seats ahead of today's much-anticipated ECB announcement and press conference. In the day ahead, bonds will see how well they can hold the gains that have arrived in the wake of a generally friendly ECB announcement (read the update on MBS Live).  A policy rate cut and re-upping of the ECB's bond buying program helped push 10yr yields down to 1.68% by the start of domestic trading.  So far, Mario Draghi's press conference hasn't done any damage to the gains.  If anything, he helped Treasuries move back to post-ECB lows after they began to drift higher right at the open. If bonds merely manage to hold the gains that are in place this morning, they will be taking the first step in breaking below the recent uptrend--at least in terms of the simplistic trend channel presented in the yellow lines below.  In the event that the run up to this afternoon's 30yr bond auction (or anything else, for that matter) pushes yields back up, the highest yields of the past 2 days advocate watching a ceiling at 1.775.  Before that, there is a shorter-term pivot point ceiling to consider at 1.73% (where 10s were trading for 4 straight hours before the ECB announcement).

September 12, 2019 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.12%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% +0.00%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.15% -0.10%   6.15% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 12, 2019 Mortgage Steady at Recent Highs Wed, Sep 11, 2019 5:04PM Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today for the average lender as underlying bond markets finally calmed down. Over the past few days, bond yields have been rising quickly, effectively correcting from the lowest levels in more than 3 years. The same is true for mortgage rates with the average conventional 30yr fixed quote hitting 1-month highs yesterday and holding in the same territory today. One school of thought behind the recent rate drama is that the bond market is apprehensive about upcoming central bank policy announcements, both from Europe (ECB) and the US (the Fed). The ECB annou... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.91% -0.08 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.15% -0.10 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.92% -0.09 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/16 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.00 +0.04   95.05 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.28 +0.05   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.013 -0.018   3.643 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Bonds Get First Opportunity to Reverse Curse After ECB Thu, Sep 12, 2019 9:25AM In the day just passed, the recent bond market selling-spree showed its first serious signs of leveling off since it began one week ago.  This wasn't as triumphant is it sounds, however.  Treasuries were unwilling to follow European bond yields lower in the early morning hours.  Furthermore, after the very decent 10yr Treasury auction at 1pm, ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.07 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.00 +0.04 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.05 GNMA 4.5 98.18 +0.03 GNMA 5.0 100.27 +0.07 GNMA 5.5 101.18 -0.02 Pricing as of: 9/17 8:53AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.503 0.000 5 YR Treasury 3.580 -0.006 7 YR Treasury 3.761 -0.010 10 YR Treasury 4.013 -0.018 30 YR Treasury 4.619 -0.033 Pricing as of: 9/17 8:53AM EST Other News Are Lenders Anticipating a Slowdown? Available Credit Falls 3.9 Percent Thu, Sep 12, 2019 11:35AM The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) suffered its largest decline in eight months in August. The Index fell 3.9 percent to 181.7, MBA says this indicates that credit is tightening. The MBA announcement comes on the heels of Fannie Mae's release of its third quarter Lenders' Sentiment Survey in which there ... (read more) Fraud Risk Decreases on a Wave of Refi Activity Thu, Sep 12, 2019 8:18AM Mortgage application fraud declined in the second quarter of this year. CoreLogic's report on the incidence says that one out of every 123 mortgage applications submitted during the quarter (0.81 percent) had a fraudulent component compared to one in 109 (0.92 percent) in the second quarter of 2018. This is a decline of 11.4 percent. The company said it was ... (read more) Lenders See Demand and Profits Expanding, While Credit Tightens Wed, Sep 11, 2019 10:35AM Mortgage lenders reflected a lot of optimism about their business prospects in the third quarter Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey conducted by Fannie Mae. This is in sync with a report late last month from the Mortgage Bankers Association which reported greatly increased profitability on the part of mortgage banks in the second quarter. Now lenders have told... (read more) Capital Markets Products; Training and Events, Some Today; Stearns' Rumblings Thu, Sep 12, 2019 9:02AM I apologize in advance for the length of today’s commentary, but there’s a lot going on! Ask any economist if rent control works, and they’ll say, “No.” But that didn’t stop California’s Assembly from voting in state-wide rent control which the Governor is expected to sign. In terms of pure supply and demand, wanna b... 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