Mortgage rates moved lower by an almost imperceptible amount today. The improvement was enough to bring the average lender to the lowest levels since the end of August, 2018. In other words, these are the best rates in 4 months. 2 months ago, all hope seemed lost. Rates were the highest in years and there were few reasons to expect the pain to subside, short of a massive meltdown in stocks or a big picture shift in the economy. As you're likely aware, stocks indeed tanked heading into the 4th quarter. And as I've mentioned many times since, that stock weakness was largely responsible for rates' ability to reclaim lost ground. This raises serious questions for the beginning of 2019 because the economic data and other indicators aren't necessarily looking like they justify all the pain we've

December 28, 2018 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Dec 28, 2018 Mortgage Rates End 2018 at 4-Month Lows Fri, Dec 28, 2018 4:27PM Mortgage rates moved lower by an almost imperceptible amount today. The improvement was enough to bring the average lender to the lowest levels since the end of August, 2018. In other words, these are the best rates in 4 months. 2 months ago, all hope seemed lost. Rates were the highest in years and there were few reasons to expect the pain to subside, short of a massive meltdown in stocks or a big picture shift in the economy. As you're likely aware, stocks indeed tanked heading into the 4th quarter. And as I've mentioned many times since, that stock weakness was largely responsible for rates... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.99% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.64% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/15 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.30 +0.17   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.45 +0.06   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.035 -0.031   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Are Stocks and Bonds Correlated Right Now? It's Complicated Fri, Dec 28, 2018 9:17AM As we discuss off and on over the years, the relationship between stocks and bonds is always complicated.  At times, it seems as if bond yields and stocks prices are following each other in lock-step.  That's been true of most of the big mo... (read more) MBS Live Recap: Stocks Taking Bonds on Year-End Roller Coaster Thu, Dec 27, 2018 5:16PM Is this the "big one" or isn't it?!  That's what everyone with a vested interested in the stock market would like to know about the ongoing sell-off that's been in play during the fourth quarter of 2018.  The record highs at the end of September created a high.  These concerns ramped up significantly in the middle of December when stocks bro... (read more) MBS Live Recap: Bonds Improve Significantly Despite Stock Market Resilience Fri, Dec 28, 2018 4:55PM Bonds have had their good eye on stocks for months now.  Almost any instance of exceptional bond market strength has come courtesy of exceptional weakness in the stock market.  Today was--well... and exception . Stocks and bonds both began the day fairly close to yesterday's latest levels.  Stocks stayed there.  Bonds didn't. ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.93 +0.30 UMBS 5.5 101.30 +0.17 UMBS 6.0 102.45 +0.06 GNMA 5.0 100.22 +0.22 GNMA 5.5 101.25 +0.12 GNMA 6.0 102.01 +0.00 Pricing as of: 9/15 5:48PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.538 -0.015 5 YR Treasury 3.605 -0.026 7 YR Treasury 3.788 -0.028 10 YR Treasury 4.037 -0.030 30 YR Treasury 4.657 -0.024 Pricing as of: 9/15 5:48PM EST Other News Pending Sales; Foiled Again! Fri, Dec 28, 2018 10:29AM Analysts had expected to hear that pending home sales had a good run in November, perhaps even breaking its 10-month streak of year-over-year declines; Econoday went so far as to predict "A big bounce back is the forecast for November pending home sales." Instead, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) announced that its Pending Home Sales Index (PH... (read more) FHA and VA Changes; Agency Deals Continue to Share Risk Fri, Dec 28, 2018 9:31AM “Rob, should we be staffing up for another refi boom?” It seems like most lenders are pausing during the holidays to take stock of current staffing levels before adjusting them one way or another. Or running “what if” scenarios through someone like Riivos . In terms of the pool of eligible loans to refinance, who’s left out ther... (read more) Latest Video Higher rent growth is possible during 2019, says REITs analyst If Fed continues on its path, we'll see recession by 2020, says Natixis' La... Pending home sales weaker than estimated Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Q4 GDP Forecasts: Mid 2s The Basis Point Did you know a $2.7 billion data company called Plaid secretly powers your mortgage? CNBC El-Erian: Criticize the Fed more for how it communicates, and not on monetary policy Bloomberg The 10-Year Yield Will Go Higher, Says Bulltick's Vera Calculated Risk Blog Question #9 for 2019: What will happen with house prices in 2019? Calculated Risk Blog Chicago PMI Decreased Slighly in December CNBC US student debt levels set a new record in 2018here's how much the typical borrower owes NAHB Eye on Housing Home Features Buyers Consider Essential Bloomberg UBS Sees No Risk of Europe Recession, U.S. `Even Less So' CNBC Don't laugh: The Fed will be cutting rates 'in coming months,' David Rosenberg says NAR - Realtor.com Mortgage Rates Continue to Fall in Holiday Gift for Home Buyers, Sellers Reuters Drop in U.S. consumer confidence stokes fears of economic slowdown CNBC The 'January Effect' could be the market's big hope for a bounce

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