Consistency can be boring, but in crazy times it can also be reassuring, even comforting. While they differ on the specifics, economists, at least those in the housing industry, seem to be coming together with much the same outlook and many of the same caveats for the next year or so. Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) team is among those who see economic growth slowing i n a more-or-less natural way , and housing's current woes settling into stability. Unless.... ESR's December Economic Developments forecasts the economy will finish the fourth quarter with 2.6 percent annualized growth, down from 3.5 percent in Q3. Over the entirety of 2018, growth will have been at a 3.1% rate, the fastest of the current expansion, slowing to 2.3 percent next year as the boost from federal

December 14, 2018 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Dec 14, 2018 Mortgage Rates Edge Back Down Toward Long-Term Lows Thu, Dec 13, 2018 2:59PM Mortgage rates fell moderately today, helping them move part of the way back down toward their lowest levels in more than 3 months (seen back on Friday). The average lender continues quoting rates that are roughly 3/8ths of a percentage point lower than the highs from early November. Last Friday's low rates marked the culmination of the strongest winning streak for rates of 2018. We've been in a bit of a holding pattern since then, with next week's scheduled announcement from the Federal Reserve likely serving as the motivation for the next (and probably last) big wave of momentum for the year... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.98% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.35 -0.23   95.05 100.47 UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.93 -0.10   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.133 +0.052   3.706 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: This Would Show That Bonds Are Serious About Considering Even More Gains Fri, Dec 14, 2018 9:24AM If you've truly come to an appreciation of the gravity of bonds' big picture headwinds over the past 2 years, then the past 5 weeks may feel like a stroke of luck so good that it has to change any day now.  More than a few bond analysts were w... (read more) MBS Live Recap: Bonds Continue Calming Before Next Storm Thu, Dec 13, 2018 7:12PM Whether or not next week's Fed announcement proves to bring a winter storm for bond markets remains to be seen.  That said, if anything is going to do the trick, that's the best chance we have.  Between now and then, bonds aren't quite sure what to do with themselves, as evidenced by their relative absence of movement today. It wasn't as if bonds... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.29 -0.34 UMBS 5.0 99.34 -0.24 UMBS 5.5 100.93 -0.10 GNMA 4.5 97.40 -0.61 GNMA 5.0 99.61 -0.22 GNMA 5.5 100.78 -0.10 Pricing as of: 9/18 10:46AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.588 +0.024 5 YR Treasury 3.694 +0.038 7 YR Treasury 3.886 +0.047 10 YR Treasury 4.136 +0.055 30 YR Treasury 4.749 +0.062 Pricing as of: 9/18 10:46AM EST Other News Housing Forecasts Are Getting More Consistent Fri, Dec 14, 2018 11:04AM Consistency can be boring, but in crazy times it can also be reassuring, even comforting. While they differ on the specifics, economists, at least those in the housing industry, seem to be coming together with much the same outlook and many of the same caveats for the next year or so. Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) team is among those who... (read more) Not Just the Season; MBA Predicts New Home Sales Down Sharply Thu, Dec 13, 2018 9:58AM The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) added a little more evidence to the pile indicating a rather rapid slow-down in the housing market. MBA's Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for November shows mortgage applications for newly constructed home purchases falling by 14 percent compared to October. The MBA data is not adjusted to account for seasonal var... (read more) Compliance and Documentation Products; Loan Limit Changes in the Primary Markets Fri, Dec 14, 2018 9:02AM Lots of folks in the mortgage biz like statistics and odds. They may not remember them, but they like them. (As Marcus L. writes, “People still play the lottery even though most of us can't get the USB in the first time correctly and those odds are 50/50.”) Plenty of home loans are impacted by student debt. For every 100 students who enroll full-... (read more) Latest Video Liz Young: Probably won't get trade deal in 2019 between the US and China Strong November retail data lowers concerns of an economic slowdown China to suspend tariffs on US automobiles and auto parts Around the Web Bloomberg ECB Officials See Deeper Uncertainty as Euro-Zone Economy Cools Bloomberg California Needs a Housing Revolution Bloomberg No Happy New Year for Central Banks Fretting on 2019 Outlook CNBC Some of the hottest housing markets are falling hardest, as bidding wars bid goodbye Reuters N.Y. Fed's U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth holds near 2.4 percent Reuters U.S. consumer spending strengthening in boost to economy Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 0.6% in November Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales increased 0.2% in November CNBC Treasury yields fall as Chinese data disappoints; traders look ahead to Fed meeting Reuters U.S. recession risks jump, Fed rate hike expectations slump Bloomberg Trump Attacks on Fed Could Backfire, Boosting Powell's Support Bloomberg If Higher Rates Sank U.S. Home Sales, Will Lower Ones Save Them? Bloomberg GOP Hurtles Toward Shutdown With No Plan to Avoid It

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