What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of two separate reactions--one for the top line CPI numbers and one for a deeper look at the internal components. Those internals show that tariffs are having an impact even though it was a smaller impact than many forecasters were expecting. Bonds didn't seem to care at first. When a new glut of trades came online at the 9:30am NYSE open, that changed.  Both stocks and bonds sold off sharply starting at 9:30am and this move looks far more convincing that the initial rally. Econ Data / Events Core MM CPI 0.228 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Core YY CPI 2.9 vs 3.0 f'cast, 2.8 prev Headline MM CPI 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.1 prev Market Movement Recap 08:36 AM after CPI 10yr yields are down 2.9bps at 4.406 and MBS are up an eighth 09:45 AM 10yr unchanged 4.434. MBS also unchanged and down just over an eighth from the highs.  11:29 AM weakness continues.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.7 bps at 4.482 02:32 PM Steady, slight selling continues.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.488

July 15, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? What's Up With The Paradoxical CPI Reaction? Heading into today's data, we knew there was a possibility of two separate reactions--one for the top line CPI numbers and one for a deeper look at the internal co... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Move Higher Despite Decent Inflation Reading Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds don't like inflation.  When inflation reports are higher than the market expected, rates tend to rise, all other things being equal.   But today's inflation numbers were a bit lower than the... (read more) Rob Chrisman Corresp. and Wholesale, Internal Audit, Verification Products, Redlining Webinar; When LOs Should Prospect Here’s a cool password: 2 444 66666 8888888 9. (You can figure it out.) I’m no IT wizard, but some are. Do you want AI to open your emails and create drafts for you to reply to them? Fyxer does exactly that. Goldman Sachs is piloting an autonomous so... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.85% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.85% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.07% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.40% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.92% +0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.25% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.41% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/15 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.07% +0.04% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.72% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.86% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/10 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.02 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.02 0.63 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.69% -0.09 0.65 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/9 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.91 -0.01 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.93 +0.01 UMBS 6.0 100.97 +0.01 GNMA 5.5 99.35 -0.01 GNMA 6.0 101.17 +0.02 Pricing as of: 7/15 9:47PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4924 +0.0081 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.946 -0.003 5 YR Treasury 4.044 +0.004 7 YR Treasury 4.253 +0.002 10 YR Treasury 4.487 +0.003 30 YR Treasury 5.021 -0.004 Pricing as of: 7/15 9:47PM EST Latest Video Former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner: The Fed likely won’t cut rates at Jul... June CPI rises 2.7% annually Lael Brainard: Fed has room to consider cutting rates later in the year Major banks to report Q2 earnings this week Around the Web CNBC Inflation picks up again in June, rising at 2.7% annual rate Wells Fargo Spotting the Impact of Tariffs on the Consumer CNBC Nearly one third of major U.S. housing markets now see falling home prices Eye on Housing Residential Remodelers Outnumber Single-family Builders in the U.S. CNBC U.S. Treasurys fall ahead of key June inflation data Calculated Risk Blog Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025? CNBC The next frontier in real estate: Data centers on the moon and space-support infrastructure Calculated Risk Blog CPI Preview Calculated Risk Blog Housing July 14th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.7% Week-over-week, Down 11% from 2019 Levels CNBC Treasury posts unexpected surplus in June as tariff receipts surge Eye on Housing Lot Values Trend Higher in 2024 CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as Trump threatens 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2s

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