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MBS OPEN: NFP IN! -467k. Previous Revised Down as Well!.
by Matthew Graham
Posted
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  • June Payrolls -467,000 (consensus -363,000)
  • Unemployment at 9.5% vs. consensus 9.6
  • Avg. hrly earnings unchanged versus .1% gain consensus
  • workweek down .1 hr to 33.0 hrs.  consensus was for no change
  • April nfp revised down a bit from -504k to -519k

This should (SHOULD) pave the way for a green friday...  Just how green remains to be seen, but so far the 10yr is heading down to 3.5.  MBS should follow shortly...  Stay tuned...

7/1 EFFECTIVE FED FUNDS:   +0.02  to  0.20  from 0.22

LIBOR FIXINGS

O/N LIBOR:     +0.0006   to  0.2681  from  0.2675

1 MONTH:       -0.0019    to  0.3044  from  0.3063

3 MONTH:       -0.0100    to  0.5775  from  0.5875

6 MONTH:       -0.0125    to  1.0788  from  1.0912

1 YEAR:           -0.0138    to  1.5762  from  1.5900

2s vs. 10s: 250bps

MBS QUOTES

Data provided by Thomson Reuters
Secondary Marketing Managers and Capital Markets Desks, if you are interested in subscribing to the same fixed income and mortgage market data we use:CLICK HERE.

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Ryan Guess  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
I truly believe the people that put consensus #'s together have no clue. I think they put #'s on a dart board and start throwing darts. Look out 10% we will see you later this year. On the other hand the 10yr is below 4.5%, headed in the right direction.
Craig LaBruno  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
4.5% up 22bps last sale $100.09 5.0% up 28bps last sale $102.16 Lets go!!!!! I need to close all my refi's I took in May at 4.75-4.875!!!!!
Jan Van Petten  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
I really feel guilty..........
George Chamberlain  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Don't leave us hanging jvanpetten... WHY?
gdabate  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
guilty about being happy that even more people have lost jobs to help our rate locks...
Craig LaBruno  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
If it's the same guilt I feel then what she means is that it's horrible that we are constantly praying for bad economic numbers for our own personal gain (in our case lower rates and better pricing). It is pretty horrible. I just want to be able to lock this last wave of refinances I took before we saw a .5% increase in one day back in late May. In a way, I really trully feel that we need rates in the mid 4's in order to really recover from this recession. So in a way we need this bad news in order to get rates back to where they should be.
Jan Van Petten  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
You both got it, for my own personal gain.
john schnyderite  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
not much immediate impact on the 10 yr..still at 5.2?
David Haines  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
I hate rooting for bad news too. Reality is that you can not have a recovery in these times without housing. This is not the 1940s. We are a consumption driven economy and if our biggest asset(s) is/are deflationary we are not going to spend money. Housing has to stabilize and the only way to do that is to keep rates low enough to entice people to buy homes and/or refianice to free up discretioanary funds. Premature exuberance leads to rates rising and will cause us to backslide..just like we did in May
George Chamberlain  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
I kindafigured that's what it was jvan, just wondering why we never get GOOD news followed by GOOD rates! I know why, but, here's to wishing. Looks like Margarita's on the libation of choice this weekend!
Adam Dahill  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
YEEAH UNEMPLOYMENT. I'll be the cheerleader if everyone feels guilty.
Clifford Hufnagle  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
I don't feel guilty, because I didn't cause the unemployment. It is just reality.
Jan Van Petten  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Did not get much this morning from my first rate sheet, only 10 bps
Jim tollman  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
not much move on rates today. wondering what the consensus is? lock today, or wait til Monday, all else being equal (ie, 10yr stays where it is). as this is like a friday, would that hold some lenders back?
Brian Denton  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
"Premature exuberance leads to rates rising and will cause us to backslide..just like we did in May"... David, that's an awesome statement. My feeling is that the Chicago boys had these economic recovery numbers predetermined a year ago, and put pressure on the statisticians to live up to their political agendas. Problem is the economy isn't improving, and they're just making it worse with PREMATURE EXUBERANCE. Axelrod and those guys have a real recession on their hands, and their outdated Kensyian economic model from the 1960s isn't going to help one bit.
Brett Boyke  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Lenders probably don't want to attract a bunch of new business that needs to be hedged before a long holiday weekend.
Tom Blanche  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Nat City.. 30 yr fixed 1 origination at 5%.
Adam Dahill  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
RATES STINK THIS MORNING!!! what gives???? I was execting to move down at least an .125% in rate but I got about 10bps, not enough to move any lower. Still around 4.875% paying about 45bps on the best deals in NY and 60bps in NJ. We should be at 101 at 4.875% for the best deals today.
doubledribble  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
AHHH - for once, a 3 day Holiday weekend where we can really RELAX!!! Coming back pumped up next Monday!!
Michael Cromwell  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Not expecting too much today. I think there's a lot to digest over the weekend. Auctions next week will be interesting. The data today should help them go over well. We all want things to get better. What we were and still are hoping for is the gov't, media, & markets to acknowledge the REALITY of how tough things truly are out there. There is too much separation between Wall Street and Main Street. All of us in this industry have been force fed this reality for the past year. It hurts to tell someone that, unfortunately, there is nothing we can do to help. The only way we head out of this mess is for the problems in the housing market to be addressed w/ more force. The scary thing is that there's still some major hurdles in front of the real estate market & financial institutions. So far it doesn't seem that any of the talking heads want to open their eyes to this publicly. I just want 4.5% at par again and my neighbor to get her job w/ the county back.
Regular Guy  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Wells Fargo dropped to 5.25 this morning (been at 5.375 forever it seemed): https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/ Anyone think it may drop down further today?
Roy Paeth  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
We are at 5% making .5%. No Adam i would not do a deal for that little just saying.. :)
Roy Paeth  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Sorry that is for FHA.
Jim Parker  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Investors holding tight on available YSP's - today is thier Friday. May have some dips late today. Best bet is to enjoy the 3 day weekend as the market dips next week (hopefully) - we will all be scrambling to lock and close loans.
Jim Parker  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
George -- are car shopping this weekend?
memailbox  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
link error 404 - File or directory not found. The resource you are looking for might have been removed, had its name changed, or is temporarily unavailable.
memailbox  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
for the rates link
Adam Dahill  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Roy- Neither would I. :) mine was Fannie. This is just my luck, I'm going to be 4,000 miles away on vacation and rates are going to bottom, I'm going to have to have to be sneaking out to send emails and all I want to do is relax. I got the ring yesterday and I'm popping the question this trip. Wish me luck everyone!!!
Wayne Rogers  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Hey Brian they don't call it crook county for nothing now.
Christopher Rowe  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
i CAN SEE IT NOW....ADAM "WILL YOU MARRY ME" BUT BEFORE YOU ANSWER i HAVE TO CHECK RATES
Jan Van Petten  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Good Luck Adam. DO NOT start it off on the wrong foot. Everything will be there when you get back.
Jim Parker  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Adam - Goodluck on the trip. Your relationship is much more important than the start of a rate dip.
Wayne Rogers  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Yeah Adam kick back on the beach with your lady a couple Corona's, skip a few rocks then skip that Blackberry, before you pop the question. (commercial I know but it's cool)
amehbwd  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Good luck Adam!!!! Do youself a favor and just shut the phone off and wait to deal with things when you get back!
Craig LaBruno  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Congrats Adam. Relax and have a good time. Proposing is sort of a big deal so put the rate thing aside. LOL!!!!! Next thing you know you'll have a beautiful little baby like the one in my profile pic. LOL!!!!
Michael Cromwell  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Can't believe there's a woman out there that'll date a mortgage guy, much less marry one these days. J/K Good luck. I'm sure you have someone reliable @ work who can handle your business. Leave your laptop and the rate @ the gate. Have fun!!
Adam Janik  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
funny how if the employment numbers went the other way and were less than expected then rates would have jumped for sure. hopefully we will see more green later today
Chuck Michael  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
I've been floating a 4.5% since end of May. Fallen off the sheet since June.
Adam Quinones  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
enjoy the vacation Adam...we'll miss your comments!
Bryan/Mortgage Finance Group, Inc.  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Good luck Adam! That's what matters in the long run, not the stuff we worry about here day to day.
Joy Morris  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
A comment on the guilt thing. Just remember that once the economy is back on it's feet and rates are sky high, those same folks unemployed today won't give one wit that you are earning 100% commission, are employed but have no paycheck.
Roy Paeth  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Congrats and good luck Adam!!
Clifford Hufnagle  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Congrats and good luck Adam!
Bobby Downey  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Adam D good luck on your trip.....best thing a man can do is find a good woman to share his life with.......set all your files on a trigger rate and have your assistant or processor lock them if they hit it.....talk to the clients and get their trigger rates and have them commit to locking if they hit....then set them all up so it is simple for whomever takes care of it for you to manage..........and have fun and worry about having a good time and not mortgage rates.....
Quyen TRan  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Craig, you're too funny. Best wishes Adam and enjoy your trip. I bet you won't even remember about the rates once you're at your destination.
Adam Dahill  |  Contact or Connect with this Member
on
Thanks everyone. You're right about a BB commercial. I can almost see it now :) She'e been with me since the beginning of my mortgage career and has seen the highs and lows so I know that she's a keeper. This whole economic madness has really put life in perspective and you need to enjoy life while you can and not get bogged down in the details. Rates go up and rates go down... the sun rises every day no matter what the economy does. Well, not so sure about the sun these days on the NorthEast. It's raining AGAIN!!!
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