Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBS Live Dashboard
Bond Markets Tanking Again After Tepid 30yr Bond Auction
Taken out of context, today's 30yr Bond Auction will look average when compared to historical norms. The bid-to-cover at 2.70 was somewhere between the 2.86 average of the last 4 re-openings and the 2.63 of the last 4 refundings. at 3.383 the High-Yield was very close to the 3.386 WI yield (WI = When-Issued, which is the best estimate of where markets expect the High-Yield to stop).
So in and of itself, this auction was just average, maybe slightly weaker than average due to the bid-to-cover not quite living up to previous re-openings. This is ABSOLUTELY APPALLING considering the amount of selling seen in bond markets over the past two days!!! Everyone and their brother was calling for today's auction to be some sort of rousing success due to recent weakness and simply put, it wasn't. It was just OK. And to be just barely OK IN TODAY'S CONTEXT, well.... that's not OK, and bond markets have demonstrated that reaction.
10's have traded up into the 2.27's on a few occasions in recent moments and Fannie 3.5's (outperforming nicely) have "only" traded down 18 ticks on the day now to 102-12.
Risks of reprices for the worse have increased.
Featured Market Discussion
Timothy Baron : "Glad I locked what I could on Monday afternoon."
peter pozzuoli : "REPRICE: 3:25 PM - Flagstar Worse"
Rob Clark : "REPRICE: 3:25 PM - Provident Funding Worse"
Dan Clifton : "REPRICE: 3:06 PM - Platinum Mortgage Worse"
Steve Chizmadia : "REPRICE: 2:58 PM - Pinnacle Worse"
Dan Clifton : "REPRICE: 1:52 PM - 360 Mortgage Worse"
Matthew Graham : "I do not see this as a rally-inspiring result"
Andrew Horowitz : "relief rally coming ;-)"
Victor Burek : "B"
Matthew Graham : "I don't have the TV on, but curious to see what the rickster has to say after expecting the fantastic results "
Matthew Graham : "to clarify, there's nothing pathetic about the auction stats as they'll look next to each other on the ongoing list of auction results. they're about average, hence "B," but considering how very much ground 30's have lost over the past two days, to "only" achieve mediocrity is the "D-""
Matthew Graham : "absolutely pathetic and I'm shocked that we're not selling off right now"
Matthew Graham : "This auction is another "B" out of context and a "D-" in context"
Matthew Graham : "RTRS - U.S. 29-year 11-month bond BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.70, NON-COMP BIDS $7.51 MLN "
Matthew Graham : "RTRS- - U.S. SELLS $13 BLN 29-YEAR 11-MONTH BONDS AT HIGH YIELD 3.383 PCT, AWARDS 74.55 PCT OF BIDS AT HIGH "
Matthew Graham : "3.386 - Marked as 1pm WI yield on 30's"
Jason York : "REPRICE: 1:00 PM - Chase Worse"
BVG : "Good news according to Linkedin Today headline: Housing Crisis to End in 2012 as Banks Loosen Credit Standards"
Matthew Graham : "WI 30's currently 3.373 "
Brent Borcherding : "If we don't hit that bar, I'll definitely be hitting another one."
Matthew Graham : "anyway, the important one is the 2.86.... that's "the bar" for the day. at least for the working day. I'm sure other bars will be more important this afternoon"
Rob Clark : "Another trader on CNBC was saying the 10 year shows good value and expects buyers to come in soon. More shoes to drop here and in Europe"
Matthew Graham : "2.63 is the average of the last 4 auctions and 2.627 is the average of all auctions since August"
Rob Clark : "And Ricky S said it should be a good auction"
Matthew Graham : "gearing up for 30yr Auction: reopenings noticeably tend to outperform refundings in terms of Bid-to-cover. You'll potentially hear other recent averages of Bid-to-cover, but none are as good as the average of just the reopenings since August, which is 2.86, derived from just the four reopenings that have taken place since then"
Victor Burek : "considering the back up in UST...i agree Brent"
Matthew Graham : "and began "the range""
Matthew Graham : "after that is anyone's guess. the 2.4 was a really convincing head-fake that resulted in 1.95 a few days later"
Brent Borcherding : "I think rate sheets look pretty good."
Matthew Graham : "2.08-2.29 trading range centered on a narrower range between 2.13 and 2.26"
Andrew Horowitz : "2.4"
Matthew Graham : "I'm thinking a lot about October"
Andrew Horowitz : "think 2.24 holds MG?"
Michael Kelleher : "might attract some more mbs community members"
Dan Clifton : "REPRICE: 11:55 AM - NYCB Worse"
Andrew Horowitz : "the back up in rates should attract some buyers now Bert"
Bert Swyers : "this auction is gonna be huge today, have a bad feeling at this point"
Trey Beathard : "I think we consolidate here and fill that gap in the chart with good bond auction demand this afternoon (bwtfdik?)"
Bert Swyers : "major freak out today across office, everyone wants to see my mbs dashboard, asking me for guidance. I dont have any guidance"
Victor Burek : "hopefully, mbs rally and move back up"
Victor Burek : "that gap from yesterday to today is just the difference between what the 3.5 closed at yesterday and where it opened this morning"
Trey Beathard : "I have a 30 yr fnma 3.5 chart to the left of this chat box. I am new to this. Does that big gap down in the chart almost always get filled?"