What is the Fastest Growing Commercial Sector? BofA & Fannie Grapple Over $10 billion
What say we end the week with something light, but near and dear to my
heart: stuff. Whether it is my grandfather's army uniform from the
Spanish American war, my high school oceanography notes, my bottle cap
collection, or a license plate I found by the side of the road in St. Thomas in
1980, I've kept it. And it is all really valuable, right? (Snort.) But there
are lots of us out there, and the SSA is here to help! You've never heard of
the Self Storage Association? 10% of the households in the U.S. store
stuff somewhere in a facility - I love seeing $50,000 cars parked in driveways
because they won't fit in the garage. There
are roughly 17,000 Starbucks worldwide, and 33,000 McDonalds worldwide - about
equal to the number of public storage facilities just in the US! The self-storage
industry in the United States has a collective $20+ billion in annual revenues
(2010). The industry has been the fastest growing segment of the
commercial real estate industry over the last 30 years.
Well, this was bound to happen. I was contacted by a non-bank lender,
doing less than $50 million per month, who is about to be audited by the CFPB.
It reminded me of something this commentary has written about several times: if
you think you're not going to be audited by the CFPB, you're most likely
incorrect. Management asked me if I knew of anyone they could speak with,
who has been through this, or is going through a CFPB audit, on an informal
basis about advice. So if that description fits, and you don't mind sharing
information, let me know and I'll put you in touch. Or, if you'd like me to
publish some anonymous comments in the commentary about what it was like, shoot
me an e-mail. (I wish I had the technological savvy to set up an "Audited
by the CFPB" user's group.)
Of course, while all this auditing is going on, and resources are
dedicated to buybacks (see paragraph below), many lenders are stretched to the
limit. Volume capacity remains a concern with lenders. While most
lenders welcome loan origination volume, the recent activity that has been
ongoing has caused some operational and fulfillment challenges. Remember
when folks offered 10-day locks? I haven't seen that for a while. On average, most
lenders are seeing the majority of locks at 60 days in order to satisfy back
office support (processing, underwriting, appraisal orders, and scheduled
closings). Although week over week origination activity is being reported
by some lenders to be flat or down 5%-10%, mortgage pipelines are still
remaining at all-time highs to manage.
In speaking with Capital Markets folks, I love hearing stories about how
they succeeded in defeating buyback requests. Negotiating skills are critical,
as is a sound knowledge of loan processing and underwriting - especially when
you're dealing with $10 billion in buybacks. So it even applies to the
big guys, like Bank of America and Fannie Mae. More
Private mortgage insurance is alive and well. It's been more than three
years since mortgage insurance companies have insured as much in volume as they
did in June. It's been even longer since policies in force increased. Mortgage
insurers issued 34,169 policies for $9.459 billion during June. The last time
dollar volume was that strong was in March 2009, when $9.859 billion in
policies were written. June's total reflected activity at Mortgage Insurance
Companies of America (MICA) members Genworth, MGIC, and Radian Guaranty. But
the 2009 numbers additionally reflected volume from former MICA members PMI,
RMIC, and United Guaranty. (Also current noticeably absent from MICA is
Essent.) A year earlier, when data for PMI and Republic was still included,
24,161 policies were written for $4.769 billion. From Jan. 1 through July 31,
mortgage insurers wrote 177,038 policies for $42.329 billion.
But all is not so rosy in the biz. MGIC Investment Corp.'s
disclosure about a disagreement between its insurance regulator in Wisconsin
and Freddie Mac (FHLMC) over how it uses capital sent its share price
plummeting into possible de-listing status at the NYSE. Yesterday MGIC reported
a $277 million second-quarter loss, down further from the $162 million loss
suffered a year earlier. "Risk factors" are an important part of every MI
company's reporting these days, and one of the risk factors involved MGIC
Indemnity Corp., which was approved by Freddie Mac in January to conduct
business in states where MGIC fell below required capital and couldn't obtain a
waiver. Conditions of the agreement include a 20-to-one capital ratio for MGIC
Indemnity. Industry followers know the status with MGIC, Freddie, the state of
Wisconsin's Office of the Commissioner of Insurance, and the order that waives
capital requirements until Dec. 31, 2013, but for more information you can read
it here.
Conversely, AIG's UG (United Guaranty) "nearly quadrupled its
operating income to $43 million in the quarter, as new delinquencies fell
17 percent. UGC, once seen as a peripheral asset, has become a core part of
AIG's business as competitors stumbled and it gained market share." Insiders
wonder about AIG (owned 61% by the U.S. Government) and paying back TARP money,
but in the meantime.
Lastly, a story out of the Richmond Times-Dispatch notes that "Genworth
Financial's acting chief executive officer said a spinoff or sale of its
struggling U.S. mortgage insurance business may not be viable at this time.
Comments made Wednesday by Martin P. Klein, the interim CEO of the Henrico
County-based insurer, drove shares down 11% in one day. Klein said that 'delinking'
the mortgage insurance business from the company 'may not necessarily be the
most cost effective or most beneficial option for investors or bondholders.' He
said a sale or spinoff may not be viable at this time 'due to potential capital
required to execute the transaction.' The company's U.S. mortgage insurance
business has suffered repeated quarterly losses because of the housing market
downturn. In June, hedge fund Highfields Capital Management LP increased
its investment in Genworth and said it would discuss options for the mortgage
insurance operations that could include a sale or spinoff. In an interview,
Klein noted that the mortgage insurance business has seen narrowing losses and
is expected to return to a profit this year. The unit posted a loss of $25
million in the second quarter compared with a loss of $255 million in the same
period in 2011. The company said the number of new delinquencies
declined."
Let's take a quick look at some training, conferences, and other news
items from around the biz.
Lenders
One, the nation's largest mortgage cooperative, will be holding their bi-annual
conference Aug 5th-8th in Chicago, IL. 500 of the top mortgage
executives in the industry will do extensive networking, education and best
practice sharing among industry leaders including FNMA, HUD and CFPB. For
information regarding membership in Lenders One visit its website at www.lendersone.com.
Out in Northern California there are three complimentary training
sessions of analyzing income for the self-employed borrower coming up,
sponsored by Kinecta Federal Credit Union and Radian Guaranty. They're Wednesday,
Aug 15 from 8:30AM-12PM in San Ramon and in San Rafael from 1:30-5PM, and again
on Thursday, Aug 16, from 8:30AM-12PM in Cupertino. For more information,
contact Rickey Juarez at rjuarez@kinecta.org.
The Northeast Regional Conference of Mortgage Bankers is slated to
include a panel on the proposed amendments to Pennsylvania's Mortgage Licensing
Act and New Jersey's Residential Mortgage Lending Act. The panel will
discuss how Pennsylvanian regulation is affected by HUD's SAFE Act Rule, which
would change the circumstances under which a mortgage originator's license
would be necessary, as well as proposed clarification regarding a Pennsylvania
mortgage banker's net worth. The discussion will also cover the issues
with fees and charges as dictated by New Jersey's RMLA, with special attention
given to the definition of discount points. The conference will be held
from October 9-11, and interested parties may register here.
There's nothing like Texas in August, and the FHA is offering training
in Hurst. One session is on FHA Updates. "This free live half-day classroom
training (not a webinar) will provide clarification to current hot topics and
frequently asked questions (FAQs) in today's FHA lending environment. Covered
topics will include: Credit Scenarios, Occupancy, Real-Estate Owned Properties
(REO) and Refinance transactions as well as most recent Mortgagee Letters.
Class size is limited, first come, first served." A second session is on Home
Equity Conversion Mortgages (HECM) Training. "Help your borrower's use
their home equity to work for them. This FREE live half-day classroom training (not
a webinar) will provide an overview and updates to the HECM process to include
HECM purchase transactions and refinances. Anyone in the lending and housing
industry seeking to better understand the HECM process could benefit from this
FREE training." HUD offers a lot of
training.
There are several Texas Mortgage Bankers Association (TMBA) events
approaching. The Southern States Servicing Conference takes place on September 19
& 20 at the Gaylord Texan Resort in Grapevine, Texas. The registration
deadline is August 17. Also, on November 12 & 13, the 62nd Annual Education
Seminar Marketplace takes place in Sugar Land, Texas at the Marriot Town
Square. For more information and registration, check out http://www.texasmba.org/calendar.asp.
And I am looking forward to stopping by at the Mortgage Bankers
Association of the Carolinas yearly conference from September 15-17 at
Hilton Head. "One Voice - One Purpose" is the theme, and one can find out more
information by clicking through some links at http://www.mbac.org/event_detail.php?id=182.
Yesterday we started off the day in the U.S. with the ECB news/news
conference, with Draghi began the conference speaking with strong rhetoric
saying "high yields are unacceptable and the Euro is irreversible." The
immediate reaction was a selloff, however as the conference wore on it began
apparent that no specifics had been determined and nothing new would be implemented.
No real surprise there. So aside from a little intra-day volatility, which
doesn't help hedging pipelines, rates didn't really do much. Back to the
Olympics!
But does any of that matter now? Non-Farm Payroll, expected at +100k,
came out at +163k for July and the Unemployment Rate came in at 8.3% versus
June's 8.2%. (Prior month's revisions knocked 6k jobs off the numbers.) Much of
the Payroll change was due to private sector jobs, up over 170k, although it
was fairly broad-based. Is the economy really stronger? Perhaps -
equities are improving. Last Friday the 10-yr closed at 1.55%, yesterday we
closed it at 1.48%, and this morning in the early going we're around 1.53%. In
other words, not a lot of change to rates - look for MBS prices to be
down/worse..
The Dreaded Call
My boss phoned me yesterday, he said, "Is everything okay at the
office?"
I said, "Yes, it's all under control. It's been a very busy day, I haven't
stopped."
"Can you do me a favor?" he asked.
I said, "Of course, what is it?"
"Speed it up a little, I'm in the foursome behind
you."