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Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds were right in line with yesterday afternoon's levels ahead of the 10am data. JOLTS (job openings) pushed yields back to yesterday's highs--perhaps with some help from the Senate's passage of the spending bill, but at that point, traders bought the dip in bond prices and pushed back into the day's range. It wasn't enough to get back to positive territory, but it made the day less of an obvious turning point in the bigger-picture. Perhaps a better way to say it would be that bonds still look open-minded when it comes to responding to Thursday's jobs report and next week's CPI.
Econ Data / Events
S&P Manufacturing PMI
52.9 vs 52.0 f'cast, 52.0 prev
ISM Manufacturing
49.0 vs 48.8 f'cast, 48.5 prev
ISM Employment
45.0 vs 47.0 f'cast, 46.8 prev
ISM Prices
69.7 vs 69 f'cast
Job Openings
7.769m vs 7.300m f'cast, 7.395m prev
Market Movement Recap
10:34 AM slightly stronger overnight, but progressively weaker in the AM--especially after 10am econ data. MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.256
12:01 PM 10yr yields are up 5bp at 4.273. MBS down a quarter point.
02:59 PM Modest recovery. MBS down only 5 ticks (.16) now. 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.25
MBS Commentary
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Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds were right in line with yesterday afternoon's levels ahead of the 10am data. JOLTS (job openings... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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It's been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today--close enough to 3 months. Some lenders may be higher or lower than they were yesterday depending on whether or not changed rates yesterday afternoon. Mortg... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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“Life is like a roll of toilet paper: The closer you get to the end, the faster it goes.” Just like that, 2025 is half over. With it have come changes at the GSEs, government loan programs, and the compliance landscape. In his latest edition of Mortg... (read more)
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