Mortgage rates dropped sharply lower today relative to the amount of movement in the underlying bond market with the average lender right in line with the lowest levels since late 2022. Because rates are directly tied to the prices of those bonds, the correlation tends to be almost perfect over time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] But there are always scattered examples of one leap-frogging the other. These inconsistencies can arise for several reasons. In today's case, it happened due to late-day strength in bonds yesterday afternoon coupled with the structure of the underlying mortgage bond market. An explanation of the latter would be woefully esoteric in the context of a daily mortgage rate update--even for industry professionals. In the simplest possible terms, it has to do with the range of interest rates allowed in each grouping of mortgage backed securities (MBS). As investor sentiment shifts in favor of the next lower grouping, it effectively greases the skids for rates to slide down into the range associated with that grouping. The overall set-up is reminiscent of September 2024 when rates were doing the same thing for the same reasons ahead of Fed meeting with a virtual 100% chance of a rate cut. Back then, mortgage rates moved paradoxically higher after the Fed rate cut.  The same thing could happen this time, but it's by no means guaranteed. In fact, last year's Fed rate cut wasn't the catalyst for rising mortgage rates. Instead, it was an upbeat shift in economic data in early October. In other words, rates will take their next major cues from incoming economic data over the next few weeks. 

September 16, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.12%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% +0.00%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.15% -0.10%   6.15% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 16, 2025 Mortgage Rates Near 3 Year Lows Ahead of Fed Tue, Sep 16, 2025 3:18PM Mortgage rates dropped sharply lower today relative to the amount of movement in the underlying bond market with the average lender right in line with the lowest levels since late 2022. Because rates are directly tied to the prices of those bonds, the correlation tends to be almost perfect over time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] But there are always scattered examples of one leap-frogging the other. These inconsistencies can arise for several reasons. In today's case, it happened due to late-day strength in bonds yesterday afternoon coupled with the structure of the underlying mortgage bond mar... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.91% -0.08 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.15% -0.10 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.92% -0.09 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/16 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.26 -0.04   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.36 -0.09   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.033 -0.007   3.621 4.780 Bonds Easily Clearing Last Pre-Fed Hurdle Tue, Sep 16, 2025 10:02AM After last week's CPI data was taken mostly in stride, the only other potential economic data hurdle was this morning's Retail Sales report. Whereas CPI was merely on the hotter side of the consensus, Retail Sales came out unequivocally stronger, with the control group hitting the 6.0% mark in year-over-year terms.  Even after subtracting 3% annual... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.94 +0.03 UMBS 5.5 101.25 -0.04 UMBS 6.0 102.36 -0.09 GNMA 5.0 100.24 +0.00 GNMA 5.5 101.19 -0.03 GNMA 6.0 101.94 -0.05 Pricing as of: 9/16 5:02PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.513 -0.024 5 YR Treasury 3.591 -0.009 7 YR Treasury 3.778 -0.014 10 YR Treasury 4.034 -0.007 30 YR Treasury 4.653 -0.008 Pricing as of: 9/16 5:02PM EST Other News Broker, QC Products; Bank M&A; LOs - Know Your Borrower; Figure's IPO star Mike Cagney Interview Tue, Sep 16, 2025 11:49AM My cat Myrtle was always up for a battle with a lizard in the yard. On a larger scale, the ancient Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu said, “Every battle is won or lost before the battle takes place.” Fed Governor Lisa Cook won the last legal round yesterday in her battle to stay with the Fed. Do you think that companies building a factory in the U.S., as we move t... (read more) Latest Video Dovish 25bps cut likely, a hawkish 50bps cut unlikely, says Paul McCulley Goldman Sachs' Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo: We expect a rate cut & 'hawkish t... Retail sales up 0.6%, topping forecast for August Former Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin: Fed's confronted with a classic stagf... Around the Web Eye on Housing Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month High Calculated Risk Blog "A Dirty Little Secret" CNBC Treasury yields trade cautiously ahead of Federal Reserve's rate call this week Seeking Alpha U.S. retail sales strengthen more than consensus in August Eye on Housing Shelter Inflation Continued to Cool Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August Calculated Risk Blog Housing September 15th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.6% Week-over-week Eye on Housing Builders Stay Cautious as Single-Family Permits Extend Downtrend Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in August CNBC More consumers are using rent payments to boost their credit score. Here's what to know Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 CNBC My student loan servicer changed without my knowing. It may happen to you, too here's what to do CNBC Treasury yields muted ahead of Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week

© 2025  Mortgage News Daily, LLC. | 19701 Bethel Church Rd. | Cornelius, NC 28031 Interest rates displayed are national averages and for informational purposes only. Actual rates from lenders may vary based on several factors including, but not limited to, credit worthiness, ability to replay, credit score, down payment, loan term, etc. This email was sent to: [recipientemail]. Go here to UNSUBSCRIBE from this email.