Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa. But in today's case, that correlation didn't pan out. The first of today's two important economic reports was ADP Employment. It was just barely stronger than expected, so it's no surprise that rates didn't react. The second report (ISM Services) was quite a bit stronger, with the headline index hitting its best levels since 2022.  On a vast majority of other occasions, such a result would create some clear upward pressure for rates. We can only speculate as to the absence of a reaction this time. Perhaps it was the component that tracks inflation falling to the lowest level in nearly a year. Perhaps the market is more preoccupied with geopolitical considerations.  Regardless of the reasons, we're not upset with the outcome. Rates moved about halfway back down to their recent lows after spending a few days at 2 week highs to start the week.

March 4, 2026 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.07% -0.06%   5.99% 7.08% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.73% +0.01%   5.55% 6.48% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% +0.00%   6.1% 7.2% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 4, 2026 Mortgage Rates Move Back Down Despite Stronger Data Wed, Mar 4, 2026 3:31PM Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa. But in today's case, that correlation didn't pan out. The first of today's two important economic reports was ADP Employment. It was just barely stronger than expected, so it's no surprise that rates didn't react. The second report (ISM Services) was quite a bit stronger, with the headline index hitting its best levels since 2022.  On a vast majority of other occasions, such a result would create some c... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.07% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.73% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.67% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.39% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.69% -0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 3/4 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 5.98% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.44% +0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/26 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.17% -0.04 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.15 0.73 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.21% -0.09 0.27 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/18 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.97 -0.02   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.37 +0.01   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.100 +0.032   3.932 4.590 Calmer Start. Uneventful ADP. Waiting on ISM Wed, Mar 4, 2026 8:41AM After 2 days of much higher volatility at the open, bonds are roughly unchanged so far this morning and the overnight session was noticeably calmer. Today's big ticket data includes ADP Employment and ISM Services. The former is already out (63k vs 50k, with a negative revision about the same size as the beat) and not moving markets. With that, we wait ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 -0.10 UMBS 5.0 99.97 -0.02 UMBS 5.5 101.37 +0.01 GNMA 4.5 98.06 -0.15 GNMA 5.0 100.08 +0.00 GNMA 5.5 101.15 -0.02 Pricing as of: 3/4 6:19PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.547 +0.051 5 YR Treasury 3.693 +0.045 7 YR Treasury 3.872 +0.030 10 YR Treasury 4.100 +0.032 30 YR Treasury 4.744 +0.040 Pricing as of: 3/4 6:19PM EST Other News AOT Execution, CRM, Advisory, Virtual Economist, Non-QM Tools; Redwood's First Non-QM Deal Wed, Mar 4, 2026 11:09AM Credit is certainly a topic as of late, both its process and its cost, but I received this note from an industry vet in the South. “Rob, I’m tired of lenders having ‘a come apart’ over FICO’s costs. No one talks about the fact that FICO held its prices steady for over 20 years, and the 1400 percent price increase came from a base of 69 cents. I don’t think F... (read more) Latest Video Private companies added 63,000 jobs in February, January revised to just 11... ISM services gauge rises to 56.1 in February, higher than expected Lower rates spur mortgage demand February S&P Global U.S. services PMI comes in 51.7, falling short of estim... Around the Web CNBC Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair to replace Jerome Powell Eye on Housing House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Fourth Quarter 2025 CNBC Private companies added 63,000 jobs in February, January revised to just 11,000 additions, ADP says CNBC Mortgage rates jump sharply higher after Iran strikes, reversing last week's decline Investing Live Feds Kashkari: Iran war impact could have monetary policy impact CNBC Big investors have been fleeing for-sale housing market, even before Trump ordered ban Investing Live ISM non-manufacturing PMI for February 56.1 versus 53.5 estimate Eye on Housing Multifamily Absorption Rate Remains Below 50% CNBC Weekly mortgage demand surged 11% higher last week, as rates sat near 4-year low CNBC Oil surges for second day, Brent tops $83 after Iran orders Strait of Hormuz closure CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors weigh escalating U.S.-Iran war Investing Live S&P Global composite PMI final 51.9 versus 52.3 preliminary CNBC Treasury yields were higher as investors monitor U.S.-Iran war developments

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