The underlying bond market (which dictates the rates offered by mortgage lenders) weakened moderately overnight.  Weaker bonds equate to higher rates, all else equal.   "Higher rates" is contrary to many media outlets' coverage this week, but there's an important reason. Most news organizations that cover mortgage rates rely on Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey for their once-a-week update. Additionally, when Freddie's rate raises/falls appreciably, it receives even more attention. This frequently creates problems due to the timing and methodology of Freddie's survey. Specifically, the survey is an AVERAGE of the rates seen over the 5 days (Thu-Wed) leading up to Freddie's Thursday release. As such, if rates happen to fall sharply on a Friday (as was the case last week), our DAILY rate tracking will reflect that on Friday while Freddie won't catch up until the following Thursday (yesterday, in this case). By that time, rates hadn't moved any lower, and now today, they're actually a bit higher. All that to say, the rate drop you're hearing about from Freddie is the same rate drop we told you about last Friday.  There's been no meaningful improvement since then, and in fact, a modest increase in rates today. Today's move in bonds/rates wasn't driven by anything specific  and shifts of this size don't demand concrete justification in underlying data or events. It could simply be the case that traders were closing out trading positions for the week and the modest uptick in yields/rates was the incidental result. 

September 12, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 12, 2025 Mortgage Rates Were Flat All Week No Matter What Other News Suggests Fri, Sep 12, 2025 3:20PM The underlying bond market (which dictates the rates offered by mortgage lenders) weakened moderately overnight.  Weaker bonds equate to higher rates, all else equal.   "Higher rates" is contrary to many media outlets' coverage this week, but there's an important reason. Most news organizations that cover mortgage rates rely on Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey for their once-a-week update. Additionally, when Freddie's rate raises/falls appreciably, it receives even more attention. This frequently creates problems due to the timing and methodology of Freddie's survey. Specifica... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.00% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/12 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.13 +0.02   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.40 0.00   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.066 +0.040   3.621 4.780 Back in The Range After Failed Breakout Attempt Fri, Sep 12, 2025 11:11AM Bonds began the week with 10yr at 4.07 before rallying down to 4.04 by Monday's close.  Now on Friday, we're opening at 4.06 and we haven't spent much time trading more than a few bps higher or lower than that for the entire week.  Translation: apart from yesterday's attempt to challenge the 4.0% floor, it's been very sideways and uneventful. On th... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.63 +0.06 UMBS 5.5 101.13 +0.02 UMBS 6.0 102.40 0.00 GNMA 5.0 100.00 -0.08 GNMA 5.5 101.13 -0.08 GNMA 6.0 102.01 -0.04 Pricing as of: 9/14 3:08AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.553 +0.009 5 YR Treasury 3.630 +0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.816 +0.038 10 YR Treasury 4.066 +0.040 30 YR Treasury 4.681 +0.023 Pricing as of: 9/14 3:08AM EST Other News 2nd, Database Mining, Manufactured Housing Products; Weak Job Market Impacting Rates? Fri, Sep 12, 2025 11:38AM “Rob, we’ve said ‘no’ to more expansion possibilities than ever before. Are you hearing other lenders doing deep dives on LOs and branches and also not seeing a profitable path?” Yes indeedy. Here in Jackson, MS, at the Mississippi Mortgage Banker’s Fall Conference, lenders are not only discussing expansion but also early payoff penalties and strategies to a... (read more) Latest Video Consumer sentiment comes in at 55.4 vs. 58.1 estimated Mortgage rates dip after 10-year yield drops below 4% Consumer prices rose at annual rate of 2.9% in August, as weekly jobless cl... Consumer spending pushed ahead in August, CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor finds Around the Web Marketwatch Consumer sentiment hits four-month low in September as lower- and middle-income Americans worry about jobs Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking CNBC Here's the inflation breakdown for August 2025 in one chart Eye on Housing Household Real Estate Asset Values Reach New High CNBC How multifamily offices are playing commercial real estate Calculated Risk Blog Early Look at 2026 Cost-Of-Living Adjustments and Maximum Contribution Base MBA Why Preserving Competition Between Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Matters CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors weigh inflation, jobs data Eye on Housing Parking Trends in Newly Completed Single-Family Homes, 2024 CNBC Health care inflation rises as patients, employers brace for biggest jump in health spending in 15 years CNBC Treasury Secretary Bessent met this week with Warsh, Lindsey and Bullard as Fed chief search continues Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025 CNBC U.S. median household income rose slightly in 2024the bump may still be 'economically meaningful,' economist says

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