Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement. The only legitimate way to do this would be to say that upward pressure on oil prices is translating to higher inflation implications and therefore higher rates. At many times in the past, this would be a solid conclusion. To some small extent, a case could even be made for this correlation accounting for a portion of today's weakness. But most of the big, directional moves in oil prices over the past 2 days have failed to correlated with big moves in the bond market.  Even when we zoom out to wider frames of reference, we see counterintuitive developments over the past several years. When oil peaked around $120/bbl in 2022, 10yr Treasury yields were around 3%. When oil fell sharply into 2023, bond yields continued moving up and have held flat for the last few years even as oil gently declined. Nonetheless, there are also pockets of correlation where we can see the two lines moving in the same direction. The only problem with that is that oil and rates can both respond to a third variable: economic strength. On that note, this week's economic data may be just as big of an influence on rate momentum while geopolitical developments represent a wild card that can create a backdrop of volatility.

March 2, 2026 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.12% +0.13%   5.99% 7.08% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.68% +0.08%   5.55% 6.48% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% +0.08%   6.1% 7.2% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 2, 2026 Mortgage Rates Jump Back Into The 6's Mon, Mar 2, 2026 3:19PM Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement. The only legitimate way to do this would be to say that upward pressure on oil prices is translating to higher inflation implications and therefore higher rates. At many times in the past, this would be a solid conclusion. To some small extent, a case could even be made for this correlation accounting for a portion of today'... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.12% +0.13 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.68% +0.08 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.68% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% +0.08 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.32% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.70% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 3/2 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 5.98% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.44% +0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/26 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.17% -0.04 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.15 0.73 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.21% -0.09 0.27 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/18 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.13 -0.37   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.45 -0.18   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.046 +0.097   3.932 4.590 March Starts Sharply Weaker. Is it Iran? Mon, Mar 2, 2026 9:33AM Spoiler alert: it's not Iran. And this morning's yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end trading day with a mini snowball rally that defied overt explanation (apart from "month end bond buying")--a fact that led us to warn about the risk of "new month bond selling."  It's not that bonds always... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.38 -0.56 UMBS 5.0 100.12 -0.37 UMBS 5.5 101.44 -0.18 GNMA 4.5 98.32 -0.54 GNMA 5.0 100.12 -0.25 GNMA 5.5 101.19 -0.10 Pricing as of: 3/2 4:57PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.481 +0.103 5 YR Treasury 3.617 +0.116 7 YR Treasury 3.817 +0.116 10 YR Treasury 4.045 +0.097 30 YR Treasury 4.692 +0.076 Pricing as of: 3/2 4:57PM EST Other News HELOC, AI/Compliance, eNote Products; Skiing and AI Events/Training; Capital Markets Mon, Mar 2, 2026 11:54AM In what seems to be the blink of an eye we’re down two months of 2026, and by most accounts they were decent for lenders and vendors. Here in Ft. Lauderdale at the Lenders One Summit, the talk in the hallways, like that at several recent conferences, is centered around a handful of topics, M&A being one of them, and the desire for companies to control th... (read more) Latest Video ISM Manufacturing PMI comes in at 52.4 in February Final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rises to 51.6 in February 'A focus on home affordability': Compass CEO and Rocket CEO on new strategi... February Chicago PMI comes in at 57.7, beating estimates Around the Web CNBC Mortgage rates jump sharply higher after Iran strikes, reversing last week's decline CNBC U.S. Treasury yields ticks higher as investors monitor U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran S&P Global US manufacturing growth weakest in seven months PR Newswire Manufacturing PMI® at 52.4%; February 2026 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report Eye on Housing Private Residential Construction Spending Edges Higher in December Realtor.com The Ban on Investors Is Stuck on One Key Question: What Is Large? Eye on Housing 2024 Home Improvement Loan Applications: A State- and County-Level Analysis CNBC Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected Trading Economics Chicago PMI Rises to Near 4-Year High Eye on Housing Price Growth for Building Materials Slows to Start the Year CNBC Treasury yields decline as investors await wholesale inflation reading Census.gov Monthly Construction Spending, December 2025 Eye on Housing Gains for Student Housing Construction in the Last Quarter of 2025

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