For a few moments this morning, it looked as if rates might buck the recent trend and recover a bit of ground today. The underlying bond market was fairly flat overnight and then managed to improve after this morning's PCE inflation data. But that improvement was short-lived.  Top tier 30yr fixed rates jumped to 7.60%. That's only 0.02% higher than yesterday, but yet another long-term high. As frustrating as it continues to be, there are no convenient scapegoats for the reversal in terms of intraday news/data. Some small case could be made that the day's economic data wasn't exactly rate-friendly, but the timing of the market movement and indicators elsewhere in the market suggest that's a waste of time. The only irrefutable way to connect cause and effect is to use broad strokes. The bond market is in the midst of a fairly rapid reassessment of the outlooks for Fed policy, inflation, and the supply/demand equation for government debt. Today may have seen some additional volatility due to the mechanics of the month/quarter-end trading environment, but not to the extent that anyone should expect rates to magically fall just because tomorrow is a new month.  A meaningful drop in rates will require one or more of these things: Iran war ending and fuel prices dropping economic data weakening inflation falling significantly and sustainably There are other things that can help/hurt, but these are the big three at the moment. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

September 30, 2026 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 7.60% +0.02%   5.99% 7.6% 15 Yr. Fixed 7.22% +0.02%   5.55% 7.22% 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.66% +0.06%   6.1% 7.66% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 30, 2026 Mortgage Rates End Day Higher Despite Promising Start Wed, Sep 30, 2026 4:06PM For a few moments this morning, it looked as if rates might buck the recent trend and recover a bit of ground today. The underlying bond market was fairly flat overnight and then managed to improve after this morning's PCE inflation data. But that improvement was short-lived.  Top tier 30yr fixed rates jumped to 7.60%. That's only 0.02% higher than yesterday, but yet another long-term high. As frustrating as it continues to be, there are no convenient scapegoats for the reversal in terms of intraday news/data. Some small case could be made that the day's economic data wasn't exactly rat... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.60% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 7.22% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 7.25% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.66% +0.06 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.85% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.25% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/30 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.03% +0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.42% +0.16 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/24 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.30% +0.18 0.75 15 Yr. Fixed 6.56% +0.13 1.02 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.27% +0.12 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/30 UMBS 30YR 6.0 97.98 -0.21   97.98 102.75 UMBS 30YR 6.5 100.45 -0.24   100.45 104.00 10 YR Treasury 5.288 +0.044   3.948 5.288 Lower PCE Inflation, So Why Aren't Bonds Happier? Wed, Sep 30, 2026 9:34AM Core PCE came in at 0.2 vs a 0.3 forecast, and the bond market rallied a bit in response. That said, the unrounded number was .247, which about as high as it could be without rounding up to 0.3. Core annual PCE was 3.0, which was flat versus a downward revision from 3.3. More importantly, that downward revision wasn't mainly about new data collection showing... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.5 95.31 -0.22 UMBS 6.0 97.98 -0.21 UMBS 6.5 100.44 -0.25 GNMA 5.5 95.52 -0.13 GNMA 6.0 98.25 -0.12 GNMA 6.5 100.37 -0.18 Pricing as of: 9/30 4:53PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.885 +0.011 5 YR Treasury 5.086 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 5.192 +0.050 10 YR Treasury 5.292 +0.047 30 YR Treasury 5.638 +0.069 Pricing as of: 9/30 4:53PM EST Other News Jumbo ARM, Compliance, AVM, Borrower Mining Tools; Fairway's Steve Jacobson Interview; California MBA's Advocacy Wed, Sep 30, 2026 11:53AM Time flies. The last day of the third quarter. We just wrapped up Fat Bear Week 2026 in Alaska. (Congrats to Backpack.) Ringo Starr is 86 years old, and doing well: clean living, being active, and a sense of humor. I mention this because when he was born, a letter was 3 cents to mail. Do companies still have mailrooms and mail bags? Let’s dip into my “electr... (read more) Latest Video Fed’s preferred gauge showed core inflation at 3.0% in August, much lighter... Job openings and labor turnover comes in at 7.08 million vs 7.2 million est... September Chicago PMI comes in at 58.8, exceeding expectations Growth is part of the reason yields are moving higher, says Partners Group’... Around the Web Federal Reserve Fed's Cook: Committed To Returning Inflation To Target While Preserving Labor Market Strength Eye on Housing PCE Inflation Remains Elevated CNBC The Fed's main inflation measure will be released Wednesday. Here's what to expect Investing Live US August Dallas Fed Trimmed mean PCE inflation at 1.9% vs 2.2% expected Investing Live US July core PCE 3.0% y/y vs 3.3% expected CNBC Mortgage rates jump for the sixth straight week, hitting both refinance and homebuyer demand hard CNBC Private sector jobs rose by 90,000 in September, better than expected, ADP reports Investing Live Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q3 US growth estimate to 3.7% from 5.0% Investing Live US GDP Final for Q2 2.2% vs 1.5% estimate Investing Live Fed's Williams: One more hike likely this year is likely enough CNBC Pressure on U.S. Treasurys eases after 30-year yield hits highest level since 2002 Institute for Supply Management Chicago Business BarometerTM - Rebounded to 58.8 in September Investing Live Fed's Musalem touts having a framework as the backbone of communication strategy

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