It's a rarity these days, but mortgage rates actually moved lower today by more than a token amount. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell to 7.54% from 7.60% yesterday. There are multiple potential factors in play when it comes to explaining the underlying bond market rally, but none of them stand out as an obvious singular motivation. For those curious, the list (which has several esoteric factors that we won't be fully explaining here) includes, but is not limited to: traders covering bets on higher rates ahead of tomorrow's jobs report concerns over European bond market contagion focused on France and Italy  reassuring comments from Fed speakers helping Fed rate expectations move lower technical buying opportunity when Treasury yields hit 5.34% (10yr) A day like today invites consideration about bigger picture ceilings, but it will need to bring friends in order for that conversation to continue. We are bound to see periodic sighs of relief any time rates move higher as relentlessly as they have in the past month. Tomorrow's jobs report is as likely as anything to set the tone for the rest of that conversation. If job growth is much stronger than expected, the conversation is over until further notice. If it's much weaker than expected, we'll talk.

October 1, 2026 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 7.54% -0.06%   5.99% 7.6% 15 Yr. Fixed 7.18% -0.04%   5.55% 7.22% 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.66% +0.00%   6.1% 7.66% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 1, 2026 Solid Mid-Day Recovery For Rates Thu, Oct 1, 2026 4:09PM It's a rarity these days, but mortgage rates actually moved lower today by more than a token amount. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell to 7.54% from 7.60% yesterday. There are multiple potential factors in play when it comes to explaining the underlying bond market rally, but none of them stand out as an obvious singular motivation. For those curious, the list (which has several esoteric factors that we won't be fully explaining here) includes, but is not limited to: traders covering bets on higher rates ahead of tomorrow's jobs report concerns over European bond market contagion... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.54% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 7.18% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 7.15% -0.10 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.66% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.87% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.17% -0.08 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/1 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.28% +0.25 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.60% +0.18 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/1 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.30% +0.18 0.75 15 Yr. Fixed 6.56% +0.13 1.02 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.27% +0.12 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/30 UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.35 +0.32   98.07 102.75 UMBS 30YR 6.5 100.79 +0.23   100.59 104.00 10 YR Treasury 5.244 -0.043   3.948 5.279 No Love From October So Far, But The Day's Not Over Thu, Oct 1, 2026 10:35AM Sometimes we see a distinct shift in momentum on the first day of a new month. This is not one of those times. October 1st picks up where September 30th left off with more yield curve steepening (2yr and 10yr yield getting farther apart). This is a reflection of the sudden shift in economic data expectations last Wednesday combined with the fact that the Fed... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.5 95.63 +0.22 UMBS 6.0 98.37 +0.34 UMBS 6.5 100.81 +0.25 GNMA 5.5 95.88 +0.38 GNMA 6.0 98.70 +0.40 GNMA 6.5 100.39 +0.07 Pricing as of: 10/1 4:53PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.785 -0.114 5 YR Treasury 5.010 -0.082 7 YR Treasury 5.128 -0.061 10 YR Treasury 5.244 -0.043 30 YR Treasury 5.614 -0.018 Pricing as of: 10/1 4:53PM EST Other News eNote, Non-Agency, Spec Pay-Up, Processing, Hedging Tools; UAD 3.6 Paused; Agency Pricing Changes Thu, Oct 1, 2026 11:18AM Welcome to the 4th quarter. Remember when, in 2024, the informal slogan for many in our biz was, “Stay alive ‘til ’25!”? (’27 isn’t expected to be heaven.) This is the month of Halloween. Suddenly residential lending is filled with tricks or treats, along with conferences of varying value. People are on the move: the jobs section of this Commentary has been ... (read more) Latest Video Mortgage News Daily’s Matt Graham on what to expect from mortgage rates Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari sees one more rate hike this year and anoth... Fed's Jefferson: Future policy adjustments should be determined carefully ISM manufacturing index steady, though prices gauge surges Around the Web Investing Live Fed’s Schmid: Rising long-term rates are starting to strain housing and commercial lending S&P Global PMI hits highest level since May 2022 Federal Reserve Fed's Jefferson: Officials May Need More Time for Next Move CNBC 10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since 2002 Investing Live US weekly initial jobless claims 197K vs 200K expected PR Newswire ISM Manufacturing PMI® at 54.5% Eye on Housing Private Residential Construction Spending Posts Broad-Based Gains in August Investing Live US construction spending for the month of August 0.9% versus 0.0% expected Eye on Housing PCE Inflation Remains Elevated Federal Reserve Fed's Cook: Committed To Returning Inflation To Target While Preserving Labor Market Strength Eye on Housing AI Exposure Remains Relatively Low Across Most Construction Occupations Investing Live US August Dallas Fed Trimmed mean PCE inflation at 1.9% vs 2.2% expected Investing Live Atlanta Fed GDPNow cuts Q3 US growth estimate to 3.7% from 5.0%

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