Heading into today's Fed announcement, futures markets indicated roughly a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates. They did not. This seems like it should have been good news for rates, but there's a catch. Rates exist on a spectrum defined by "duration." Specifically, there are different rates for different lengths of loans. The Fed Funds Rate is relevant to loans of the shortest duration (mostly overnight lending between the largest financial institutions). Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are more closely linked to longer term loans--bonds with durations that average 5-7 years.  When a Fed decision or the Fed outlook is actively being traded, we often see big divergences between the shortest-term rates and the longest. Today's reaction is a prime example. 2-year Treasuries (short enough to get some benefit from the Fed holding rates steady) fell noticeably. But longer term rates launched higher.  Why? Warsh basically told the market that he doesn't need to hike if the market is going to do it for him. And because short-term bonds have to stay more closely linked to the Fed Funds Rate, it's longer-term bonds that can actually accommodate Warsh's request.  Mortgages are long enough to see a bit of damage from this trading dynamic, thus the moderate increase in today's average 30yr fixed rates. It's also worth mentioning that the day got off to a challenging start for rates due to overnight increases in oil prices (which have been closely linked to rate movement during the Iran war). 

July 29, 2026 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.78% +0.02%   5.99% 6.85% 15 Yr. Fixed 6.32% +0.01%   5.55% 6.34% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.90% +0.01%   6.1% 6.92% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 29, 2026 Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Despite No Fed Rate Hike Wed, Jul 29, 2026 3:53PM Heading into today's Fed announcement, futures markets indicated roughly a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates. They did not. This seems like it should have been good news for rates, but there's a catch. Rates exist on a spectrum defined by "duration." Specifically, there are different rates for different lengths of loans. The Fed Funds Rate is relevant to loans of the shortest duration (mostly overnight lending between the largest financial institutions). Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are more closely linked to longer term loans--bonds with durations that average 5-7 years.  When ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.78% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.32% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.34% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.90% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.34% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.36% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/29 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.58% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.96% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/23 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.69% +0.04 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.01 0.87 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.18 0.45 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/22 UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.27 -0.20   98.97 101.64 UMBS 30YR 6.0 101.33 -0.05   101.05 102.75 10 YR Treasury 4.681 +0.074   3.948 4.708 Here's What Changed in The New Fed Announcement Wed, Jul 29, 2026 2:00PM The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 9 – 0 3 vote: The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banki... (read more) "Pause" Ends in Iran, But Probably Not For The Fed Wed, Jul 29, 2026 9:49AM The big news over the weekend was that the U.S. and Iran paused hostilities--something that led to 2 solid days of gains in the bond market. But in the overnight session, the pause ended as multiple attacks were reported on both sides. Oil rose predictably and bond yields did the same. One "pause" that's less likely to change is the Fed's abstention from hik... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 96.91 -0.29 UMBS 5.5 99.27 -0.20 UMBS 6.0 101.33 -0.05 GNMA 5.0 97.38 -0.15 GNMA 5.5 99.76 -0.07 GNMA 6.0 101.66 -0.15 Pricing as of: 7/29 5:08PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.240 -0.042 5 YR Treasury 4.396 +0.021 7 YR Treasury 4.535 +0.062 10 YR Treasury 4.681 +0.074 30 YR Treasury 5.211 +0.121 Pricing as of: 7/29 5:08PM EST Other News Hedging, Credit, Anti-Fraud Tools; STRATMOR on Borrower Satisfaction; Fannie's $4 Billion Earnings Quarter Wed, Jul 29, 2026 11:23AM “Technology is dominated by two types of people: Those who understand what they do not manage, and those who manage what they do not understand.” Even if you’re a 90-year-old LO using a rotary phone, the rest of your company, and your borrowers, use technology and new products and need to stay up on them. FICO Score 10T, adoption, for example, has surpassed ... (read more) Latest Video Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh: Trying to understand the underlying general trend... Fed Chairman Warsh: Take the pullback in Fed guidance very seriously U.S. and Iran resume strikes after brief pause Fed Chairman Warsh: Not going to fix inflation with a magic wand Around the Web Investing Live Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.75%. Marketwatch The big focus now is on the potential for a September rate hike after the Fed stands pat Wall Street Journal Morgan Stanley Bankers Were Pressured to Approve Mortgages for Wealthy Clients MBA Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey CBS News U.S. thwarts Iranian missile attack on U.S. troops, strikes Iranian proxies in Iraq with Saudi forces JCHS Many Owners Cannot Afford to Maintain Aging Homes CNBC Treasury yields inch higher as Wall Street awaits Fed interest rate decision Investing Live Middle East mediators see U.S.–Iran deal within reach CNBC U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve faces stress as emergency releases strain old infrastructure Investing Live CaseShiller seasonally adjusted YoY housing prices change 1.6% versus 1.3% estimate Eye on Housing How a Home Purchase Boosts Consumer Spending Eye on Housing Median Lot Value Stabilizes as Regional Trends Diverge Investing Live ADP weekly NER pulse 15,000 versus 16,500 last week

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