The day began like many others over the past several weeks. Bonds hadn't moved much overnight, but were paying some attention to slightly higher oil prices. 10yr Treasury yields were still in the familiar September range between 4.93% and 5.01%, and there was limited economic data on tap that threatened to upset the apple cart. Now let's talk about tail risk. It refers to a distribution of potential outcomes for something that can be reasonably forecasted with a margin of error. A vast majority of the outcomes fall in the main body of the parabolic distribution, but occasionally, an outcome will fall at one of the tails.  While this week's economic calendar is indeed very light, today's lineup included a report that can have a big impact on rates on very rare occasions. The results of that report were so much stronger than expected as to constitute "tail risk" territory.  This is a particularly bad time for such tail risk as far as the rate market is concerned. Only yesterday, we had Fed speakers reminding us that if the economy proved to be hotter than expected, the rate hike outlook shared at least week's Fed announcement would be "too low." Today's data immediately forced the market to consider the risk that next week's data (which is much more important) conveys a similarly strong message.  The result was a rapid shift in Fed rate expectations for next year. While longer term rates don't react to a Fed rate hike after the fact, they're more than willing to react to changes in rate hike expectations. 10yr Treasury yields jumped over 5.1% and the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate jumped 0.09% to 7.26%. This matches the high seen in early 2025. At this point, we'd have to go back to May 1, 2024 to see anything higher. 

September 23, 2026 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 7.26% +0.09%   5.99% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.04%   5.55% 6.87% 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.40% +0.05%   6.1% 7.4% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 23, 2026 Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since May 2024 Wed, Sep 23, 2026 3:11PM The day began like many others over the past several weeks. Bonds hadn't moved much overnight, but were paying some attention to slightly higher oil prices. 10yr Treasury yields were still in the familiar September range between 4.93% and 5.01%, and there was limited economic data on tap that threatened to upset the apple cart. Now let's talk about tail risk. It refers to a distribution of potential outcomes for something that can be reasonably forecasted with a margin of error. A vast majority of the outcomes fall in the main body of the parabolic distribution, but occasionally, an outcome w... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.26% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.87% +0.07 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.40% +0.05 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.76% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.89% +0.07 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/23 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.95% +0.19 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.26% +0.17 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/17 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.97% +0.12 0.72 15 Yr. Fixed 6.30% +0.13 0.98 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.03% +0.29 0.59 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/16 UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.96 -0.87   98.96 102.75 UMBS 30YR 6.5 101.40 -0.62   101.40 104.00 10 YR Treasury 5.121 +0.156   3.948 5.121 Sharply Weaker on Oil and Econ Data Wed, Sep 23, 2026 10:27AM Bonds lost ground overnight with rising oil prices correlating very well with the higher yields. The selling was minimal and yields remained range bound until roughly 945am ET. While there was slight additional pressure from another little pop in oil prices, the main bad actor was a surprisingly strong reading in S&P PMI data. This series typically goes ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.5 96.37 -1.09 UMBS 6.0 98.96 -0.87 UMBS 6.5 101.40 -0.62 GNMA 5.5 96.81 -0.85 GNMA 6.0 99.13 -0.82 GNMA 6.5 101.10 -0.54 Pricing as of: 9/23 3:58PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.899 +0.157 5 YR Treasury 5.005 +0.162 7 YR Treasury 5.061 +0.165 10 YR Treasury 5.121 +0.156 30 YR Treasury 5.407 +0.106 Pricing as of: 9/23 3:58PM EST Other News Tech, Credit, Correspondent Products; STRATMOR on Succession Planning; KB Homes' Warning; UAD 3.6 Advice Wed, Sep 23, 2026 12:04PM “I won the lottery for a million dollars yesterday, so I decided to donate a quarter of it to charity. I now have $999,999.75.” One can make jokes about charities, or about people and companies in residential lending, but giving (and charity) is serious, and helps us keep our focus on things that matter: people in need. For example, there’s Fairway Independe... (read more) Latest Video Treasury sells $70 billion in 5-year note Fed's Barr: Further policy adjustments likely to be needed Former Boston Fed Pres. Eric Rosengren: Appropriate to have another 25 bps ... Fmr. Treasury Secretary Lew: Bond buybacks won't fundamentally change the d... Around the Web Investing Live US treasury sells $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 5.033% CNBC Market sees next Fed hike in October, following Barr comments and hot inflation reading Investing Live US dollar rises as Treasury yields climb and Fed hike odds increase S&P Global US business activity growth accelerated for a fourth successive month in September CNBC Nearly 10% of borrowers opted for riskier mortgages last week, as rates soared over 7% Eye on Housing Q2 2026 Remodeling Market Update: Labor and Nonlabor Input Costs Yahoo Finance Richmond Fed's Barkin says supply shocks aren't proving short-lived, leaves door open to further rate hikes Eye on Housing Bedrooms in New Single-Family Homes in 2025 Investing Live Recap: US and Iran meet in New York on UNGA sidelines, Hormuz conditions on the table CNBC September surge or October offload? Jobs experts weigh in on this falls hiring trends Investing Live Fed's Collins: With jobs market on a better footing, can focus on price stability CNBC Treasury yields edge lower as Brent crude falls below $99 Investing Live US September Richmond composite index -2 vs +4 prior

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