With Trump signing the covid relief and government funding bill last week, the bond market had seemingly moved past its downside risks as they related to stimulus.  But just when you thought we were out of the woods, there's more stimulus to consider!  In fact, the House has already passed a bill raising direct payments to $2000, and it's not entirely clear if the bill can get the requisite 2/3rds support in the senate or if McConnell will even put it to a vote.

There is a laundry list of political chess moves relating to the override of the veto on the National Defense Authorization Act to consider, as well as the implications for the Georgia senate races (probably the single most important consideration for financial markets right now), but if the $2000 version does pass the Senate, it would likely put additional upward pressure on rates.

All other things being equal, bonds would remain perfectly content to live out their 2020 days in the "same old range" with 10yr yields between .90 and .96, give or take.