“Stay away from negative people. They have a problem for every solution.” There are plenty of folks out there reminding lenders of the seasonality of residential lending. But in places like Phoenix lenders look forward to winter since it’s their peak season. On the lending side, do you work for a non-depository lender? Or compete with one? If so, and I’ve mentioned this before, you may want to read this research piece on the risks, and strengths and weaknesses, of non-bank lenders. Hint: watch out for rising rates and declining home prices – which is exactly what we’re seeing in some areas. But knowing the risks is critical to reducing them.

Upcoming Events

The impact of Hurricane Florence continues. According to CoreLogic, flooding and wind destruction has affected an estimated 700,000 residential and commercial properties across North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia. Freedom Mortgage Wholesale has announced that it is now offering webinar training dates for the FHA 203(h) product which is designed to help homeowners and renters who have lost their home or apartment in a Presidentially-Declared Major Disaster Area (PDMDA). Freedom Mortgage will be hosting 2 webinars – Thursday, 10/4 at 10AM ET and Thursday 10/11 at 1PM ET. The webinars will focus on details regarding how the FHA 203(h) product can play a meaningful role in recovery efforts. No pre-registration is required; simply join the webinars from this link.

Join National Mortgage Professional Magazine for Beyond The Post: Engage the Audience on Their Terms, a complimentary, Thursday, October 4th at 2:00 PM EDT. You’ll learn the most powerful and low/no cost tactics of digital marketing from nationally recognized social media expert Synergy Maven and Executive VP of Retail Sales at MiMutual, Daniel Jacobs. In this one-hour webinar demystify jargon such as ‘omnichannel’, ‘multi-generational sales’, ‘SEO’ and ‘target audiences’ and leave with a customized action plan of three tactics to immediately boost your business. Please register for this complimentary webinar here.

Join the NNMLA for lunch on Wednesday, October 10th with guest speaker Rob Chrisman, provider of Rob Chrisman’s Daily Mortgage News & Commentary. Registration will close at noon on October 8th.

Understanding mortgage pricing can be complex. Combine that with what the NEW HMDA 2018 will reveal about a lender’s pricing practices as compared to the HMDA 2017 data, and compliance professionals realize that they now need to understand pricing inside and out!  Back by popular demand, Tammy Butler, Master CMB is offering her “Secrets to Mortgage Pricing” and “De-Mystifying the Pricing Engine” Webinar on October 24th and November 1st. You can register for one or both here.

Plaza has posted its October live webinar trainings.

MBS is offering another two-day Boot Camp on mortgages and mortgage-backed securities.  This event will be run by the CFA Society of LA taking place October 4th and 5th from 8:30-4:00 at the member center in LA. Register now.

On Friday, October 12th, join OMBA for a live webinar to educate viewers on Blockchain and Cryptocurrency impact the mortgage industry (and, what are they, anyway).

On Saturday, October 20, in Las Vegas, independent mortgage brokers, loan originators and processors will join at the AIME Fuse 2018 National Conference to learn from industry experts about how they can access the best technology, originate more loans each month and become a marketing expert for their own business. Register for AIME Fuse 2018 here.

“Free” is a good price, especially for lunch and the program. On October 25th at Wente Vineyards in Livermore, CA, join me, the California MBA and their President’s Council member Riivos for a CFO Peer Group Luncheon event. My colleague, Joe Garrett, and I will speak on planning for 2019, mergers and acquisitions and other top of mind issues for independent mortgage bankers. These CFO Peer Group events are designed exclusively for CFOs and senior finance executives and provide opportunities to both gain industry knowledge as well as develop relationships with your counterparts in the industry. This is open exclusively to members of the California MBA. Contact Susan Milazzo for more information.

Register for the AzAMP Annual Expo, Luncheon and NMLS CE Class 2018. Part One on Thursday, October 25, 2018 begins at 8:00 AM with continuing education class, lunch with featured speaker Barry Habib, Founder and CEO of MBS Highway, followed by the AzAMP Annual Expo. Part Two on Friday, October 26, 2018 beginning at 9:00 AM, will conclude with the second half of the continuing education class.

The FAMC October 2018 Wholesale Customer Training Calendar is now published and ready for registrations.

Business Lending has released its October Client Development Calendar of Ditech comprehensive training curriculum on ditech products and processes.

The PRMG University- October 2018 TPO Class Schedule is now available for viewing and registration.

Learn a new skill or deepen your expertise in October with Arch MI's complimentary webinars on a wide range of topics, including loan processing, appraisals, analyzing tax returns and more.

This year's AFH Live Summit-- Nov. 12-14 in Chicago-- will be your insider's guide to the latest news from Washington, D.C., financing strategies, innovative case studies, and networking opportunities to help you and your company thrive in these changing times and unlock the power of affordable housing. Registration option are available now.

Capital Markets

Yes, the Fed raised short term rates last week. The move didn’t impact long-term rates so much – yet. It is important for lenders to know that the U.S. economy continues to do well. Recent economic data met market expectations and still suggest a healthy GDP reading for the third quarter, albeit not as strong as Q2. Retail sales increased 0.1% month-over-month in August, however July was revised up 0.3 percent to +0.8 percent. Nine of the thirteen retail categories showed increases while autos and clothing stores were the main negative drivers of the data. Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in August, led autos metals and machinery. Factory data continues to be positive given supply restraints, wage pressures, and the general uncertainty surrounding global trade. The producer price index fell 0.1 percent in August after and was unchanged for July. Consumer prices increased 0.2 percent in August and are up 2.7 percent year-over-year. Though the inflation data was subdued in August, it is unlikely to impact the Fed’s timing on the next interest rate increase.

The economic outlook for the third quarter remains good despite escalating trade tensions and declines in exports during June and July that may reverse the second quarter lift to GDP. Both the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys moved higher in August and nonfarm employment continued to increase. August’s jobs report saw employers add 201,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate was officially unchanged at 3.9%, though it did decrease from 3.87% to 3.85%. Hourly earnings continued their upward trend as they increased 0.4 percent for the month and were up 2.9 percent over the previous twelve months which is a cycle high. The ISM manufacturing index was at 61.3 in August, the highest reading in 14 years and both the production and new orders indices saw large gains. On the inflation side of things, the prices paid index lessened slightly, but remained at a high 72.1 as many respondents cited tariffs related price increases were being passed-on from suppliers. Meanwhile the ISN non-manufacturing index increased 2.8 points to 58.5 in August with 7 of the 10 components showing gains.

Looking at rates, Goldman Sachs economists believe that last week’s increase by the Federal Reserve will be followed by four increases next year. "In light of the economy's impressive growth momentum, the upward trends in wage and price inflation, and the limited overall tightening in financial conditions achieved so far, on net we think the risks to the funds rate are tilted to the upside."

Rates were little moved yesterday despite headlines surrounding Canadian trade officials agreeing to join a revised NAFTA (now “USMCA”). Without many major changes, the new agreement gives the three member nations veto power over another member's decision to enter into free trade negotiations with a country that is classified as a non-market economy (e.g. China). Markets had little economic data to digest, with both ISM Manufacturing for September and Construction Spending for August trending in the directions they were expected to, negatively and positively, respectively.

Looking at today, the economic calendar doesn’t have much rate-moving news and starts with Redbook same-store sales for the week ending September 29 (previously 0.3% MoM, 5.8% YoY). We also have four scheduled Fed speakers, with Governor Quarles, Richmond's Barkin, Fed Chair Powell, and Dallas' Kaplan all speaking. We will have the release of September motor vehicle sales as well. Rates are down slightly versus Monday’s close with the 10-year yielding 3.07% and agency MBS prices better by a few ticks.

Lender Products and Services

Home search has increasingly become the common denominator amongst consumer-direct lending giants to providing consumers an end-to-end home buying experience. HomeScout® National MLS pioneered the first-of-its-kind online real estate marketplace where consumers can find a home and get preapproved in one platform: while providing lenders a buyer reporting interface to help monitor buyer activities up to their point of sale. “Now you can take the guess work out of customer conversion and add up to 2-3 purchase transactions a month with HomeScout. It is the only mobile search platform to offer consumers 100% MLS listing information from coast to coast and gives lenders more control by introducing them to buyers prior to meeting an agent. Find out more by visiting them at Sales Mastery, Booth 23, in San Diego or contact them HERE  to schedule a demo or give them a call at 952-831-0623.

You’re probably all-too-familiar with the frustration of trying to find a reliable Down Payment Assistance (DPA) program. The Money Source, one of the nation’s premier mortgage lenders, has created DPAssistant to find one easily. TMS has compiled an up-to-date list of 125 recommended programs in 27 states. Can’t get much easier than that.

Recruiting: Do you need to hire producers but are struggling to find the time or are struggling to keep up with your own production and recruiting efforts? “Let the pro's help! As the leading strategic growth partner in the mortgage industry, Model Match offers a full suite of solutions to help our clients find and attract quality production talent that align with your unique value propositions and business model. Whether you're looking to increase efficiency of your own recruiting efforts, or need a partner that can recruit for you, Model Match is the solution. CLICK HERE to connect with one of our recruiting specialists and let us show you the value we can create.”

Jobs and Promotions

GSF Mortgage Corporation announces it has selected award winning technology provider PromonTech as vendor of choice for its point of sale lending portal solution. By partnering with PromonTech, GSF Mortgage Corporation will deliver a more modern and exceptional experience for customers. Implementing this new, all-in-one portal for customers to use during their mortgage process, provides a consistent, intuitive and collaborative experience on any device. The originator experience is also upgraded. The new pipeline manager and borrower collaboration tools streamline our processes and brings our sales team closer to their customers with less effort. Interested in a retail opportunity? Contact Chad Jampedro.

“Close more loans with the same amount of effort.” That’s what Assurance Financial has been offering branch managers and top producing loan originators for 17 years. If you feel stuck and don’t have the service environment you are promised, maybe it’s time you consider a change. Assurance Financial is a growing private residential mortgage banker with offices throughout the South, East Coast, and Midwest US, and we may be just what you’re looking for. Contact Paul M. Peters, CMB (225-939-6353) for a confidential discussion today.

LoanCare, a ServiceLink Company, announced that Anshul Aggarwal is its SVP and chief risk officer while John Baker has assumed the role of SVP of investor accounting, cashiering, and bank reconciliations. “In those executive leadership positions, Aggarwal will lead LoanCare’s risk management, auditor relations, quality control and compliance initiatives as well as identify, measure, monitor and control risk. Baker will lead LoanCare’s quality assurance processes and compliance with all investor, insurer, client and LoanCare procedures, requirements and guidelines.”