Staying on this topic of yesterday's weird juxtaposition of analysis from the Fed, today's trading is fairly logical.  The juxtaposition in question involves the Fed's reiteration of their intent to hike in Dec (not a true reiteration as it's simply additional info from the same meeting that gave us the "hike in Dec" message) with their new, tremendously interesting discussion about rates potentially getting stuck near zero around the world for an extended period of time.

Yeah, they said that, and there doesn't seem to be much conversation on the topic today.  But Financial markets are trading it!

The totally logical way to trade short term rate hike expectations and long term "stuck near zero" potential is to buy long term bonds and sell short term bonds.  With that in mind, 2yr yields are slightly higher on the day and 30yr yields are significantly lower.  This is also known as "flattening" of the yield curve (because a plot of maturities on the x axis and yield on the y axis would be flatter).  Flattening and steepening trades are just as much of a bet on bond markets as the more basic "buy vs sell."  It's good to keep in mind as we tend to discuss market events as either good or bad for bonds/rates in general.  Sometimes traders will be more focused on what's good for one type of bond versus another.

On a related note, sometimes trading levels are determined LESS by where a trader sees bonds moving and MORE about the positions they currently hold (and the associated implications that go beyond market movement).  Sometimes we talk about this as "positional" trading considerations.  For instance, traders have been mostly short on Treasuries (i.e. betting that rates move higher).  Combine that positional reality with the fact that Thanksgiving week is coming up--a time that traders usually move to the sidelines--and a small rate rally is a natural result.  Reason being, if you're short, you move to the sidelines by closing short positions, and you close short positions by buying the bonds you sold short. 

On a less esoteric note, Europe continues sending positive vibes to domestic bond markets.  German Bunds have rallied consistently since following Treasury yields higher after this month's NFP data, and are now back below .50.  It's been fairly common to see domestic markets lose steam in the afternoon after Europe helps push us to lower yields in the morning.  It looks like that game may be afoot even as we speak.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-08 : +0-05
FNMA 3.5
103-13 : +0-03
FNMA 4.0
106-01 : +0-03
Treasuries
2 YR
0.8920 : +0.0120
10 YR
2.2520 : -0.0210
30 YR
3.0080 : -0.0350
Pricing as of 11/19/15 1:27PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
10:20AM  :  Bond Markets Following Post-Fed 'Risk-Off' Trade

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Lenny Ujkic  :  "anyone know where i can find FHA guide in 4000.1 regarding have 2 open FHA mortgages?"
Matthew Graham  :  "Glad to hear, JH. Just make sure you throw the cover over your secret weapon when clients are in the office. It'll help keep the glare down too. MG Crystal Ball"
Jason Harris  :  "Thanks MG"
Jason Harris  :  "My new assistant just asked me how I always seemed to know when rates would be getting a little better.....I told her it was my special gift"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS CONDITIONS NOVEMBER 1.9 (CONSENSUS -1.0) VS OCT -4.5"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 271,000 NOV 14 WEEK (CONSENSUS 271,000) FROM 276,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 276,000)"
Doug Seder  :  "I was not on the Webinar yesterday. I was talking with two attorneys yesterday and the requirements they were given by other lenders were so overly conservative, to the detriment of the community and the consumer, very inconsistent"
Sung Kim  :  "the unintended consequences have yet to be revealed and the ripple effects will not be good without guidance"
Sung Kim  :  "CFPB really needs to provide clarity and certainty, stat"
Doug Seder  :  "GM SK, that is inconsistent with everything that I have read or reviewed with my TRID team. RE taxes are outside of any tolerance calculation, but it seems like every lender has a different take on these regulations."
Sung Kim  :  "that has been my assumption, but we are receiving varying opinions, and apparently the MBA webinar yesterday tried to address this, and also there were differing opinions"
Doug Seder  :  "Sk, RE taxes are outside of any tolerance, they can be added to the CD, no problem"
Sung Kim  :  "has anyone failed to disclose real estate property tax bills due and payable and what has the solution been?"