The very short version of a very long story is that bond markets are leveling-off within a range.  Using the 10yr yield as a benchmark, that range is something like 2.13-2.20%  In terms of Fannie 3.5s, it's 103-20 to 104-00. 

If we wanted to make the short story longer, here are a few of the concepts we might include in our outline:

  • Per the Day Ahead, recent corrective selling has been leveling-off.
  • Several Fed speakers have been much more 'dovish' recently, meaning they've seemed less eager to raise rates in September.
  • There is a concentration of Fed comments coming out yesterday and today owing to the annual Jackson Hole symposium. 
  • Whereas earlier comments were dovish, markets read something else into comments from Vice Chair Fischer.  While he too managed to be dovish overall (expressed concern due to recent developments), the takeaway from his comments was that the Fed is definitely planning on raising rates soon, UNLESS the recently concerning data continues over the next 2 weeks.  By invoking the next 2 weeks, Fischer tacitly confirms a rate hike is very much still on the table for September

Bond markets improved with the earlier comments and sold-off following the Fischer comments.  Other considerations include another day of relative stability in stocks and an even bigger spike in oil prices (rebounding from recent lows).  I will say that oil prices look to be a follower and not a leader this week.  Oil moved higher only after stocks and bond yields began rising, both on an indraday and day-over-day basis.

On a potentially unrelated, but still interesting note, if we weren't looking elsewhere, we might conclude that domestic bond markets were responding to sharper movement in European bond markets. German Bund yields spiked on Tuesday morning and have continued bouncing around the important technical ceiling of 0.75%. They did the same thing this morning, and Treasuries seemed to be following rather than leading. Incidentally, Treasury selling stopped when Bund trading closed.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
100-21 : +0-02
FNMA 3.5
103-26 : +0-02
FNMA 4.0
106-11 : +0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.7160 : +0.0160
10 YR
2.1770 : -0.0140
30 YR
2.8990 : -0.0290
Pricing as of 8/28/15 1:14PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
12:19PM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprices Now Likely
11:35AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Negative Reprice Risk Debuts For Some Lenders
10:20AM  :  Nice AM Sugar High From Fed Speeches and Position-Squaring

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Matthew Graham  :  "yeah, and apparently 2 weeks of data can make a difference? "
Victor Burek  :  "so he is confident moving back to 2%, but todays Core PCE showed it moving away..went from 1.3 to 1.2"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S FISCHER SAYS STILL HAVE 2 MORE WEEKS WE HAVE TIME TO SEE INCOMING DATA"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S FISCHER SAYS WE'RE HEADING IN DIRECTION OF HIGHER RATES"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S FISCHER SAYS ON CNBC SAYS EARLY TO TELL,WATCHING HOW MARKET REACTION TO CHINA UNFOLDS"
Curt Sandfort  :  "does same u/w require a fthb to move into a home before purchasing it?"
Eric Weishaar  :  "Need some quick suggestions......borrower was divorced in June and was awarded the home, trying to cash out for home repairs, but loan was suspended because she has been living in an apartment during the divorce, her paystubs reflect apt address. UW says she has to occupy the home first to complete the refi. Husband doesn't move out til Oct 1st. "
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SURVEYS OF CONSUMERS SENTIMENT FINAL AUG 91.9 (CONSENSUS 93.0) VS PRELIMINARY AUG 92.9 AND FINAL JULY 93.1"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- FED'S KOCHERLAKOTA SAYS IF YOU LIFT OFF NOW GIVEN OUTLOOK, CREDIBILITY COULD SLIDE"
John Tassios  :  "I would push back on that " hangout' time period, as even 1 rate hike may push comoditites, inflation even lower due to stronger USD"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - FED'S BULLARD SAYS WILLING TO HIKE RATES ONCE THEN 'HANG OUT' IF INFLATION REMAINS TOO LOW -INTERVIEW"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- US JULY PERSONAL SPENDING +0.3 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.4 PCT) VS JUNE +0.3 PCT (PREV +0.2 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "month-end buying can always provide some additional incremental benefit on the last few days. It's especially possible to see it on a Friday in a month where Monday is the last day."
John Tassios  :  "Good Day Ahead MG. How much of this buying today is more month end rebalancing MG? Looks like your "chopsticks" trend still holding. "