While the Millennial generation is generating a lot of attention, concern, and ink a Freddie Mac executive says it would be wise to remember that the country on the whole is aging.  David Brickman, Executive Vice President of Multifamily business, writes in the company's Executive Perspective Blog this demographic shift will have a lot of repercussions for housing.

In 15 years about a quarter of the U.S. population will be over 50 years of age.  The ranks of adults between 65 and 74, driven by the huge baby-boom population, will swell to 39 million by 2030, about double the size of that age group in 2010.  In another five years the over-80 age group will reach twice its 2010 size.  

This will generate explosive growth in those who need housing that provides accessibility, is affordable, and offers support services.  Once the wave hits, Brickman says, it will continue for years and we need to start preparing for it and taking advantage of the opportunities it offers.

The article quotes two publications from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, The State of the Nation's Housing 2015 and Housing Americans Older Adults as to some of the main factors that society must keep in mind as it thinks about housing needs:

  • People generally are living longer and maintaining active lifestyles as long as they can.
  • Persons over age 55 account for a quarter of rental housing but accounted for 42 percent of the growth in renters between 2004 and 2014.
  • More adults over age 50 live alone and women are more likely to do so than men, a likelihood that increases as they age.
  • More adults are delaying retirement but they lose earning power over time. An additional 10 million adults 65 or older will be considered low-income in the next 10 years. This will make an already troubling situation more so. One-third of Baby Boomers - 20 million - were "cost-burdened" in 2012, spending more than 30 percent of their income on housing. For half of them, housing consumed 50 percent or more of their income.
  • Seventy percent of adults over age 65 will eventually need some form of long term care.

Brickman says that being properly housed and cared for is vital to overall well-being, but can be harder to achieve as we age. The above factors and others will influence the types, locations, and amount of housing needed in coming years. Right now more needs to be done to insure that proper housing and care; that urgency will only grow in coming years. He also notes that Millennials, another huge generation, will start moving into their 50s in the next 20 years.

While advances in health management can delay seniors' transition into alternative housing most of us by age 80 or so will need or want senior housing.  The main property types are:

  • Independent living: adults live on their own but with extra help available such as meal, laundry or cleaning services.
  • Assisted living: adults still live on their own but also get help with basic daily activities.
  • Memory care: addresses the needs of seniors with moderate to severe dementia. With an estimated 50 percent of persons over age 85 having some level of dementia, demand for this type of care is rising.
  • Skilled nursing: delivers specialized care to seniors who are unable to care for themselves.
  • Continuing care retirement communities: offers a continuum from independent or assisted living through skilled nursing in a single property.

Brickman says seniors' housing can also offer a needed sense of community but costs run high and the market has focused on higher properties in top-tier markets which don't directly benefit households outside of higher income brackets or in smaller markets.  Seniors' housing, especially independent and assisted living and memory care, can be much less expensive than full-time home or skilled nursing care and most markets could absorb more - particularly for the middle- and lower-income levels. While new construction is critical to keep up with the needs of aging Americans he notes it is also important to make meaningful renovations and updates to keep existing properties in the inventory.  

He points to his company's range of lending to support the senior housing market.  "The U.S. population is aging. We'll need to adjust for this demographic shift by supporting continued innovations and adaptations in housing for our nation's seniors."