Both in terms of scheduled data on the calendar and unscheduled headline potential from Greece, today is action-packed.  The domestic economic data isn't necessarily top shelf, but a few of the reports have moved markets moderately at times.  Chief among these for today are Industrial Production at 9:15am, and to a lesser extent, PPI at 830am. 

(For what it's worth, PPI used to be much more of a market mover.  The inflation inflation bogeyman hasn't been seen with dentures--let alone teeth--for years now, and it will take more than one PPI for people to start telling scary stories again.)

Yellen begins her 2-day congressional testimony at 10am today.  These Humphrey Hawkins speeches have market-moving clout tantamount to Fed Policy Announcements depending on what's said.  Case in point when Bernanke spilled more beans on tapering in May 2013.  To be clear though, we're talking about potential, not probability.  We know a lot more about how Yellen is feeling these days, and the likelihood that she lets unexpected policy cats out of the bag is low.  If she does, expect chaos.

Some measure of chaos can be expected if any of today's Greece-related headlines find their mark.  Here too, we shouldn't assume that a drastic reaction is guaranteed.  But for instance, if Greece is unable to pass the reform package through parliament, we might well expect the same sort of "GREXIT!" trade that we saw last week after the "no" vote on the referendum. 

2015-7-14 Grexit

This bears repeating for several reasons--not the least of which being that the chart above correlates bond market movements with Greece-related events/news.  Greece definitely affects day to day movement in bond markets, but it is not responsible for where we are in the bigger picture. 


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
99-06 : +0-00
FNMA 3.5
102-25 : +0-04
FNMA 4.0
105-21 : +0-00
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6450 : +0.0040
10 YR
2.3960 : -0.0010
30 YR
3.1870 : -0.0050
Pricing as of 7/15/15 7:30AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Jul 15
7:00 Mortgage Market Index w/e 383.5
8:30 NY Fed manufacturing * Jul 3.00 -1.98
8:30 US PPI Final Demand MM (%) Jun 0.2 0.5
9:15 Industrial output mm (%) Jun 0.2 -0.2
9:15 Capacity utilization mm (%) Jun 78.1 78.1