We've had a nice little break from the recent norm today. Domestic economic data is actually responsible for the lion's share of bond market movement this morning. It probably doesn't hurt that Greece-related headlines are at least 95% lower than yesterday's (there have been only a handful today vs hundreds yesterday). Even then Retail Sales is a respectable enough data set when it comes to market moving potential, and this morning's was unequivocally weak.
Versus a median forecast of +0.2, the headline came in at -0.3. Excluding the automotive sector, sales were down -0.1 vs a +0.5 forecast. The most stripped-down reading (also referred to as "the control group," which factors out autos/gas/building supplies/food services) fell -0.1 versus +0.4 forecasts and +0.7 previously.
10yr yields were roughly unchanged on the morning but fell a quick 4bps after the data. MBS rose from 102-15 in Fannie 3.5s to 102-20, but were already up 5 ticks before the data. Both have maintained those initial gains after some volatility surrounding the NYSE open. A modest advance in stocks looked like it would drag bond yields higher, but the lever disengaged at 10:30am (meaning stocks kept drifting higher while bonds held their ground).
| MBS |                      FNMA 3.0                     99-04 : +0-10                  |                                                  FNMA 3.5                     102-20 : +0-10                  |                                                  FNMA 4.0                     105-20 : +0-09                  |                                 
| Treasuries |                      2 YR                     0.6410 : -0.0360                  |                                                  10 YR                     2.4030 : -0.0430                  |                                                  30 YR                     3.2000 : -0.0270                  |                                 
| Pricing as of 7/14/15 11:56AMEST | |||

