In the context of this week's range, today has been well-contained and fairly mild in terms of volatility.  After hitting the best levels of the week yesterday morning following Retail Sales, yields began edging up in linear fashion and continued that trend through the overnight session.  It would have continued unabated were it not for a shockingly bad Producer Price Index this morning.  But even that proved to be only a temporary stumbling block for the determination to get back to the resistance levels in place from before Wednesday's 10yr auction.

This is something that bond markets do from time to time.  After trading up against a technical level, an event or headline will cause the level to break and a combination of momentum and/or more data/events will keep things moving in the direction of the break.  Then once that move is exhausted, it's not uncommon to see a security refill the gap back to the previous technical level.  This is basically what happened this week with the 10yr auction and Retail Sales the next morning.  A picture might help:

2015-3-13 dashboard

So we're left with 2.13+ and 2.09 as the bookends for this Friday.  MBS are keeping normal pace with the Treasury move and are also a few ticks improved day-over-day.  There is nothing else of major significance on the calendar for today, so it would be up to an unexpected headline or some high-conviction shift in tradeflows to change things between now and the close.  Cruise control until further notice.


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
FNMA 3.0
101-07 : +0-03
FNMA 3.5
104-08 : +0-03
FNMA 4.0
106-14 : +0-01
Treasuries
2 YR
0.6490 : -0.0150
10 YR
2.1030 : -0.0070
30 YR
2.6880 : -0.0060
Pricing as of 3/13/15 12:25PMEST

Morning Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:27AM  :  ALERT ISSUED: Pre-Rate Sheet Equivalent of Negative Reprice Risk

Live Chat Featured Comments
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Michael Gillani  :  "Hey MG, not that everyone on here doesn't already know it, but your "Day Ahead" write-ups are damn good! So concise, yet technical and easy to understand. Kudos."
Matt Hodges  :  "another good day for locking"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS- U.S. FEB YEAR-OVER-YEAR PPI FINAL DEMAND -0.6 PCT (CONS. UNCHANGED), EX FOOD/ENERGY +1.0 PCT (CONS. +1.6 PCT)"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. FEB PPI FOR FINAL DEMAND EXFOOD/ENERGY -0.5 PCT (CONS. +0.1 PCT) VS JAN -0.1 PCT"
Matthew Graham  :  "RTRS - U.S. FEB PPI FOR FINAL DEMAND -0.5 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.3 PCT) VS JAN -0.8 PCT"